This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship – Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course (7,189 yards, par 72)
$10.5M Purse
$1,890,000 and 600 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
Largely marketed as the most prominent non-major tournament on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship returns in all its greatness for another drama-filled week. Held at the well-known TPC Sawgrass Stadium course since 1982, history runs deep through the wooded wetlands that legendary architect Pete Dye crafted. The famous par-3 17th "island" green headlines a final three-hole stretch that typically determines the winner and exposes all errant shots with its many water hazards. New for this year are expanded water hazards on holes 6 and 7, and more significantly, the conversion of hole 12 into a drivable par four. Annually among the deepest of the year, the field features 24 of the top 25 in the world rankings along with another 120 or so top players. The Players Championship is the highest non-major payout of the year, with the winner collecting $1.89 million to go along with a generous five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, three-year exemptions to the Masters, U.S. Open, and British Open, and a place in the field for the PGA Championship in August. Look for exciting swings in momentum come Sunday, where many players will support Mother's Day dressed in pink attire.
Prior Decade Champions
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Matt Kuchar
2011 – K.J. Choi
2010 – Tim Clark
2009 – Henrik Stenson
2008 – Sergio Garcia
2007 – Phil Mickelson
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass
• Strokes gained: Tee-to-Green
• Scrambling
Champion's Profile
It's well publicized that the Stadium course plays no favorites, and the reason lies in its variety of holes; some long, some short, and 12 have legitimate water hazards to navigate. No two consecutive holes play in the same direction, making it a priority for players to constantly monitor wind conditions. So, while there are many "types" of players that can win, there are two key stats that really stand out: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and scrambling. The last four champions at TPC Sawgrass were top-five in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and top 10 in scrambling. This makes sense when considering the tough driving holes and hard-to-hit greens, especially when the wind blows. On the scrambling side, many of the greens are raised and protected by difficult bunkers and slopes (Pete Dye signatures), so when players inevitably miss greens, it can be brutally tough to save par. The top players this week will hit plenty of greens, but they'll also save par from some very tough greenside locations. When it comes to winning, TPC Sawgrass almost always identifies the greats of the game, so filling your lineups with as many highly-ranked players is a cerebral strategy this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Dustin Johnson, $11200 – Johnson resumed his hot streak after a month off with a T2 last week, showing no signs of pain from his pre-Masters fall. Though his best finish at TPC Sawgrass is just a T28, he has made huge strides in the last year and is capable of a win any given week.
Rory McIlroy, $10500 – The recently-wedded McIlroy will tee it up for the first time since the Masters at a venue where he finished inside the top 12 in his last four tries. There's nothing that can seemingly hold him back from contending; it's likely only a matter of time before he wins here.
Jordan Spieth, $9700 – Spieth has a spotty record of two missed cuts and a top-5 finish here, but don't be alarmed, he's as elite as it gets. Spieth is 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season and second in proximity to the hole. His scrambling has been subpar this year as he's ranked 72nd, but if his ball-striking is on like it has been, he will make enough birdies to contend.
Hideki Matsuyama, $9600 – Among the best tee-to-green players in the game, Matsuyama seems a perfect fit for the Stadium course. In three starts he has three top-25 finishes, and he's gotten closer to winning each year. Could this be the year he takes a leap forward to take the glass trophy?
Sergio Garcia, $9200 – The newest owner of a green jacket is playing his first event since breaking through for his first major at the Masters a month ago. Sergio has not missed a cut in 14 years at TPC Sawgrass and has notched four top-3 finishes in that time frame.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Francesco Molinari, $7600 – Ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season and coming off a pair of top-25s in recent weeks, Molinari is among the better values on FanDuel this week. He's been Jekyll and Hyde at Sawgrass with three top-10s and three missed cuts, but his recent play tilts the odds in his favor as a great upside play.
Russell Knox, $7100 – Three starts at Sawgrass have turned into two top-20 finishes for Knox, who recently tied for 11th at Harbour Town before missing the cut at the two-man Zurich Classic event.
Kevin Chappell, $6700 – A recent winner at the Valero Texas Open and runner-up at The Players last season, Chappell has converging trends that could add up to even more success at TPC Sawgrass this week.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
With only a few bargain players who have a real shot at holding up four rounds this week, seek out top ball-strikers who have a good record of scrambling this season. While it's possible to take chances on some bargain players in rounds 1-2, its experienced players with good course histories who have an advantage on the weekend. Choose the elite veterans for rounds 3-4 as they know how to best handle the course nuances and high stakes pressure that come with this event.
