RBC Canadian Open Recap: Vegas Beats Odds

It is our firm belief that the best indicator for success in a tournament is current form. If a golfer is playing well, then check out his course history.

Which brings us to Jhonattan Vegas, who hadn't so much as made a cut in more than two months before winning the RBC Canadian Open for the second consecutive year on Sunday. It had been almost four months since Vegas even cracked the top-30 in a tournament.

Note to self: No matter what, pick Jhonattan Vegas to do well at next year's Canadian Open.

Our faith in current form is still intact. The surprising result out of Oakville, Ontario, simply goes to show that things happen in sports that aren't always expected.

At least last year, Vegas preceded his win at Glen Abbey with a tie for fourth the week before at the Barbasol Championship. Even then, the win was out of left field for a golfer who had won only once before – five years earlier.

So clearly something about Glen Abbey suits Vegas' eye to the point that even prolonged poor play didn't impede him. It's rare. And it's also impressive.

Last year, Vegas used his second career win as a springboard to perhaps the best stretch of his career, closing the season with five consecutive top-25s, including at the PGA Championship and the four FedEx Cup playoff events. Yes, he qualified for the Tour Championship.

Right now, Vegas would qualify for a return to East Lake, having moved to No. 28 in the point standings. But of course he'll need at least a few more good results, or one great one, to ensure he'll be there again. Vegas' next stops will be the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, in which he has played only once (T66 in 2011) and then the PGA Championship, in which last year he secured his best ever showing in a major (T22). He's also missed the cut in the first three majors this season.

So, to expect something good out of Vegas in elite fields the next two weeks is a reach.

Just like it was to expect something good out of him at last week's Canadian Open.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman is having a fantastic season, and it was a bit of a surprise he couldn't close out his 54-hole lead, losing to Vegas on the first playoff hole. Hoffman hasn't won this season, but has two runners-up and a third among six top-10s. He's moved from No. 66 in the OWGR to a career-high-tying No. 31. All of that is a roundabout way of saying Hoffman could be in the mix any week, even in elite fields the next two weeks. He's finished top-25 in all three majors so far.

Ian Poulter

They say you have to take advantage of your breaks and, boy, has Poulter ever done so. Having almost lost his card earlier this season, he's made the most of his second chance after a point snafu was reversed. Poulter was solo third at Glen Abbey, just missing the chance to get to Firestone this week. He's also been runner-up at The Players and recently T14 at the Open Championship. He could very well be a force in the playoffs.

Gary Woodland

The big-hitting Kansan has an impressive five top-fives this season – impressive until you see that four of them came before March. Woodland got another one with solo fourth at Glen Abbey, ending a run of poor play fueled at least in part by some personal hardships. Woodland has been making most of his cuts all along; he just had nothing to show for it, not even securing so much as a top-35 for five months. Now, Woodland heads to the Bridgestone, where he does have one top-20 on his ledger. Woodland can contend in strong fields when he's playing well. We just don't know enough about the state of Woodland's game to expect good things this week.

Tony Finau

One of these days, Finau is going to win a tournament. Yes, he has a victory, but that was in the opposite-field 2016 Puerto Rico Open. He continues to rack up high finishes, with his T5 at Glen Abbey his sixth top-10 on the season. Finau has inched his way up to a career-best 59th in the OWGR, but he still won't be in the Bridgestone. He has to be the best player in the world not in that field.

Brandon Hagy

Hagy is a rookie we've had our eye on a lot this season and we've picked him at times this season, though with little to show for it. We didn't pick him this week but we're still pleased to see a tie for fifth with Finau, his best finish ever and one that locks up his card for next season. Hagy is the longest hitter off the tee this season – yes, even longer than Dustin Johnson. He heads to the opposite-field Barracuda Championship this week against a weak field. We'll still have our eye on him.

Seamus Power

Power is another rookie we saw something in, and had faith in, and picked often, again with little to show for it. Unlike with Hagy, we actually did pick Power last week, and he also notched his best career showing with a tie for 10th. But a third straight top-25 still has not lifted Power into the top-125. He's currently 126th and also will be in the Barracuda. After that, he'll have only one more chance to secure his card for 2017-18, at the regular-season-ending Wyndham in three weeks.

Geoff Ogilvy

Ogilvy used a one-time exemption for being in the top-50 in career earnings to keep his card for this season. Now, he has to play his way into 2017-18. The 40-year-old former U.S. Open winner missed the cut at Glen Abbey, dropping him perilously close to falling outside the top-125. Ogilvy stands at 121st heading into the Barracuda, a tournament he won in 2014 to extend his playing privileges two years. Stewart Cink is another golfer who used a one-time exemption for this season (top-25 in career earnings), but it has clearly paid off for him as he sits 67th in the point standings after a T62 in Canada.

Ben Martin

Remember what we were saying about current form? Martin had made 10 straight cuts heading to Canada, including a pair of recent top-10s. But he missed the cut badly. The moral of the story? Good form comes to an end for everyone, especially someone who now sits 116th in the point standings. Martin likely is secure for next season, but he'll be in Las Vegas at the Barracuda just the same.

Graeme McDowell

McDowell is another former U.S. Open champ to have fallen on hard times. The 37-year-old Northern Irishman slipped from 119th to 123rd in the point standings with a missed cut at Glen Abbey. Unlike some of the younger guys, and even unlike Ogilvy, McDowell is skipping the Barracuda. That means his playoff hopes will be determined at the Wyndham, where he presumably will be in the field.

Patrick Reed

It's kind of neat that Reed likes to have dual memberships on the PGA and European Tours. But to what end? Reed stayed in Europe after the Open Championship and tied for 19th at the Porsche European Open. It was a weak field – and weak Euro fields are weaker than weak PGA fields – and closed with his worst round of the week. Reed has now played seven weeks in a row, and it will be nine by the time the PGA Championship ends. Then there's maybe a week off before possibly four playoff events. Reed surely is playing better than he was early in the season, when globetrotting rendered him tired. We'll see how fresh he is this week at Firestone, and beyond.

RotoWire Value Picks

Last week: Two top-10s, eight top-25s, two missed cuts
This week: Runner-up (Hoffman), three top-5s, five top-10s, two missed cuts

We went chalk at the top of our value picks, and it largely paid off. In Tier 1, Hoffman was the runner-up, Finau tied for fifth and Dustin Johnson tied for eighth. Only Matt Kuchar, who rallied from a near missed cut to a T32, could be considered a whiff. In Tier 2, Woodland also paid off with his solo fourth. But he was the lone bright spot, as Danny Lee tied for 32nd, Patrick Cantlay tied for 48th, and Martin was a really bad trunk-slam. In Tier 3, Chez Reavie (T23) notched a top-25, while Chad Campbell tied for 32nd, and Kevin Tway tied for 48th. Kelly Kraft was a horrid missed cut, as he almost finished dead last in the 156-man field. Finally, our four long shots all cashed, led by Power's tie for 10th, followed by Mackenzie Hughes (T32), Daniel Summerhays (T42) and Cameron Percy (T70).