This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Welcome back for another PGA Tour season. The offseason was so short, some pros decided to just keep playing through the break, but most of those were Europeans.
Some exciting news to start the new season, after roughly 17-18 years of writing this preview, I've decided to change the format. The only item that didn't make cut is the Avoid List, which was never my favorite creation. The Consider List is essentially still here, but instead of just five players with positive outlooks, I'll write up eight players.
The structure of the article will be based around the Vegas odds. I'll start with the favorites, followed by three middle-tier golfers who I think will play well and then two longshots who could play well.
At the end of each writeup you'll notice a red, yellow or green designation. This indicates that golfer's prospects in one-and-done pools only and when possible, I'll set up that rating with the preceding sentence. As always, if you have questions about that golfer's designation for the week, ask about it in the comments section.
In addition to making my one-and-done and survivor picks each week, I'll include a few FanDuel picks as well.
One last note, the intro will be scaled back a bit and geared toward the upcoming event, versus a recap of the previous event. It will be in this space that I mention anything of note about the upcoming event such as a venue change, rotating courses, weather, basically anything that might
Welcome back for another PGA Tour season. The offseason was so short, some pros decided to just keep playing through the break, but most of those were Europeans.
Some exciting news to start the new season, after roughly 17-18 years of writing this preview, I've decided to change the format. The only item that didn't make cut is the Avoid List, which was never my favorite creation. The Consider List is essentially still here, but instead of just five players with positive outlooks, I'll write up eight players.
The structure of the article will be based around the Vegas odds. I'll start with the favorites, followed by three middle-tier golfers who I think will play well and then two longshots who could play well.
At the end of each writeup you'll notice a red, yellow or green designation. This indicates that golfer's prospects in one-and-done pools only and when possible, I'll set up that rating with the preceding sentence. As always, if you have questions about that golfer's designation for the week, ask about it in the comments section.
In addition to making my one-and-done and survivor picks each week, I'll include a few FanDuel picks as well.
One last note, the intro will be scaled back a bit and geared toward the upcoming event, versus a recap of the previous event. It will be in this space that I mention anything of note about the upcoming event such as a venue change, rotating courses, weather, basically anything that might impact your selections for that event.
As for this week, this is the fifth consecutive year at the current venue, so we have plenty of course history to use.
This week: The Safeway Open - Silverado Country Club, Napa, Calif.
Last Year: Brendan Steele shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Phil Mickelson and Chesson Hadley.
FAVORITES
Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
Cantlay is the favorite this week, but it has nothing to do with course history, as he has yet to play this event on this course. It's always a little concerning to take a guy who'll essentially be a first-timer, but you can't argue with the numbers Cantlay posted last season, which, you know, ended just two weeks ago. Cantlay likely will perform well this week, but he'll have a lot of value later in the schedule in 2019. Yellow light.
Joaquin Niemann (20-1)
Niemann took the PGA Tour by storm last season, with three top-10s in his first five starts. He enters this season as a member, which means he'll have an entire schedule to leave his mark. He's only 19 (turns 20 in November), which means there likely will be a lot of ups and downs this season. Niemann is a full go in most formats, but I'd hold him back for a week or two in one and done formats. Red light.
Brandt Snedeker (20-1)
Snedeker not only made it through the whole season, he picked up another win as well at the Wyndham Championship. It wasn't that long ago that Snedeker was one of the top American golfers, but injuries derailed him a few years ago. Now that he's healthy again, expect Snedeker to continue to improve this season. Snedeker has T17 and T57 in his two starts on this course at this event. Snedeker has more OAD value later in the season. Red light.
MID-TIER PLAYERS
Emiliano Grillo (25-1)
Grillo won this event in 2016 and has finished in the top 30 in his two starts since. Grillo didn't exactly finish the season with a flourish, but he did post a top-10 two starts ago. Grillo is a good pick this week, but he was 32nd on the season-ending FedEx points list, which means there will be plenty of spots to use him this season as well. Yellow light.
Brendan Steele (40-1)
We saw this situation a few times last season – a guy with a stellar track record, but poor form. There's no sense basing a pick based on a different golfer who was in this situation prior, so I'll spare you the results of how it went for the others. Steele is the two-time defending champ and yes, his form is terrible now, but it is a new season. Yellow light.
Martin Laird (50-1)
Much like Steele, Laird has a solid track record here, but he's also in poor form. That said, his track record isn't quite as good and his form isn't quite as bad as Steele entering this week. He's Steele-light this week. Laird has three top-20s in his last four starts here, two of which were top-10s. Green light.
LONGSHOTS
Andrew Landry (60-1)
For a guy who finished in the top 40 on the FedEx points list last season, Landry doesn't seem to be getting much respect here. Not only did he flash plenty of game last year, he also played well at this event, with a T7 in his first start here. Landry is coming off a great season, but with little track record to go off of, it might be wise to use him before the calendar flips this season. Green light.
Scott Piercy (60-1)
Another golfer I would have expected higher on the odds list, but here he is, down with Landry. Piercy picked up a win at the Zurich Classic last season, but when on his own, he didn't have a great season. That said, it's not like he finished the season missing a bunch of cuts. His form is not great now, but it's not terrible either. The reason to use him this week is his track record here, which includes a T17 last year and T3 the year prior. Yellow light.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
This week: Martin Laird - Steele's form is just too far off, and if he gets his game back, there's a chance he could prove useful later in the season. That's not necessarily the case with Laird as there are probably just a couple spots to even consider him this season. This is one.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Joaquin Niemann ($11,000)/Martin Laird ($8,800)/Andrew Landry ($8,100)
SURVIVOR PICK
This week: Martin Laird - Laird is one of a three golfers in the field this week who has made the cut all four years at the current venue. He's not only made the cut though, he's made it with ease. His worst finish was a T64, but that was a result of a poor weekend, not a near missed cut.
