Tournament of Champions Preview: The 2020 Season Tees Off

The PGA Tour heads to Hawaii this week for what is the unofficial start to the season. Most fantasy leagues recognize either this event or the one next week as the start of the fantasy season.

 As always, the field contains only winners from the previous year, and after the break since last season it is one of the more difficult events to predict. There is plenty of course history in play, but as for recent form, well that's much more difficult to come by. With that in mind, it's wise not to go too big this week in the one-and-done pools as you'd hate to waste a big gun if he weren't truly ready to start the season.          

This week: Tournament of Champions – Plantation Course at Kapalua, Maui

Last Year: Xander Schauffele shot a final-round 62 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Gary Woodland.  

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (4-1)

The legend of Rahm continues to grow, and although he's yet to capture his first major, he's a popular pick this season. Rahm will look to get off to a good start again this season as he's fared well in his two previous times at this event. He finished runner-up in 2018 and was T8 last year. However, the odds are a little too slight to go down that road with him this week.            

Justin Thomas (5-1)  

I'll go ahead and break the bad news now. Thomas will be a very popular pick this season, in all formats. If you thought you might sneak him under the radar, it's not going to happen. He's 1A to Koepka entering this season and as such, he'll be in play every week. In fact, he's a better pick on a weekly basis than Koepka, but the majors are a different story of course. Thomas has been hit or miss here, with a win, a top-3 and two results outside the top 20.              

Xander Schauffele (8-1)

The theme of the top-3 favorites this week is expectations. A lot is expected of these golfers this season, and with good reason. For Schauffele, the only thing missing is a major. He has been hit-or-miss here, with a win and a finish outside the top 20 in his two starts.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Dustin Johnson (10-1)

With only 34 players in the field this week, 10-1 is considered the "middle tier." Johnson is coming off a down year for his standards and will look to get back on track early this season. This is DJ's time of year as he's always a threat during the first couple months of the season. He's impressed here with two wins and five top-10s in his last seven starts.                

Patrick Reed (14-1)

Reed generally plays his best golf early in the season, and his play in Hawaii is no exception. Reed won this event in 2015 and finished runner-up the following year. Although he played in the Presidents Cup recently, it's tough to gauge his form from that as team play is a different beast. He appears to be in good enough form to make a run this week.                

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

All the momentum from Morikawa's run last summer is gone and now it's time to see if he's really as good as he looked last year or if he'll regress. If you are high on Morikawa, this could be a good time to jump on him as he won't face another field this small the rest of the season.              

LONGSHOTS

Brendon Todd (40-1)  

The only thing that successfully slowed Brendan Todd this fall was the end of the season. Sure, he started poorly, but he finished with a flurry. Todd picked up two wins and another top-5 in his final three starts of fall season. Odds are his hot streak is over, but at 40-1, he's certainly worth a flyer.  

Chez Reavie (60-1)  

Conditions are supposed to get tough as the week goes on, and if that's the case, then who better to have in tough conditions than Reavie, who is a proven grinder. Reavie has just one start here, which resulted in a T12, but that shouldn't matter much as he's a much better golfer now than he has been at any point in his career.              

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Among the three favorites, I can't imagine many OAD owners burning Jon Rahm or Justin Thomas in this spot. That leaves Schauffele, who is at the high end of anyone that I would think about taking this week. I'd prefer to go lower, but I can't argue with this pick.                    

Moderately Owned Pick: Patrick Reed - Reed is right in the wheelhouse this week as a golfer who you won't necessarily miss later in the season, yet he's good enough to win this week. It also helps that we've seen him play more recently than the end of November. I am considering Reed this week.            

Lightly Owned Pick: Chez Reavie - He's not going to be a popular pick this week, but when choosing your OAD early in the season, sometimes it's good to zig when everyone zags. Besides, the worst possible outcome is a solo-34th, which would certainly result in a decent check, right?

Buyer Beware: Paul Casey - Casey could be a popular pick if conditions are as poor as expected, but he's only played here twice and his best finish was a T10. That's not terrible, but I wonder about his upside on this course.                         

This Week: Brendan Todd - A quick note. Since most leagues start this week or next, I'm wiping the slate clean from the fall. I made my picks in fall as if I was playing the entire season, however. I'm going with Todd this week with that hope that he still has some of that game that propelled him to two wins in fall.                                                    

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Justin Thomas ($11,700)/Collin Morikawa ($10,200)/Chez Reavie ($8,800)

SURVIVOR PICK

This Week: N/A - No cut this week, but same deal as the OAD, I'm wiping the slate clean.