Weekly Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads north to Ponte Vedra Beach for the latest edition of THE PLAYERS Championship.

After what we witnessed at Bay Hill, we could all use a nice relaxing four days of golf that won't be filled with any sort of carnage. Hmm, maybe we're in the wrong place. Normally, TPC Sawgrass is a tough but fair track. Everyone is familiar with the 17th hole, but there are more challenges beyond that hole and to be honest, No. 17 isn't necessarily a tough hole on its own, but throw a couple thousand fans in the mix and maybe some wind, and suddenly it's the longest 132 yards on the planet.

Speaking of weather, you've probably heard by now that it's going to get a little nasty this week but from what I'm seeing, it's going to get a lot nasty. Winds will be a factor all week as will rain for the first few days. The rain will help the course slow down a bit, but that won't matter much if the wind is moving the ball in the air and that's exactly what these guys will have to deal with all week. On some courses that wouldn't matter that much, but the TPC Sawgrass has a lot of water in pivotal locations, which means we can expect some big numbers to sprout up throughout the week.

What that also means is that the favorites will be, for lack of a better term, watered down. When weather like this arrives, it brings more players into the mix because of the uncertainty of every shot.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 9:30 PM ET Tuesday. 

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Lee Westwood.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

Last week I mentioned that no one on the PGA Tour should be single digits to win, so this is a little better, but still, Rahm hasn't played well enough this year to deserve 10-1. He hasn't played poorly, but he's rarely been in contention over the past couple months. His track record here is okay, with two top-12s in four starts, but it's nothing special. He obviously could win, but this number is not enough.

Collin Morikawa (16-1)

This shows how much respect the oddsmakers and public have for Morikawa's game. He has only two PGA Tour starts this year and virtually no track record here, yet he's tied as the second favorite. Morikawa has as much talent as anyone on Tour and is a threat to win anytime he tees it up, but this number seems a little light for someone who has never had success on this course.

Justin Thomas (16-1)

This number makes the most sense among the top three favorites. Thomas has played well in spots this season, but he's yet to find his best form. With that said, it's generally been one round that has taken Thomas off course this season. He also enters as the defending champ but that's just part of his impressive track record here. Thomas has played here six times and has yet to miss the cut. In addition to his win this past year, he also posted a T3 in 2016.

THE NEXT TIER

Scottie Scheffler (25-1)

I've written for years about two types of first-time winners, ones that get complacent and ones that go to the next level. It was clear early on that Scheffler was headed to the next level as soon as he won, and he certainly hasn't wasted any time getting there. Granted, he's not elite yet, he's got to win bigger events, but he's on his way. This would certainly qualify as a "bigger" win, and although things are stacked against him -- he's coming off a win and is 0-for-1 at this course -- I'm not going to put anything past Scheffler right now.

Matt Fitzpatrick (35-1)

I like it when a golfer is constantly trending in the right direction and that's exactly what Fitzpatrick has done here at the TPC Sawgrass. He started his PLAYERS career by missing his first two cuts, but he's consistently improved in each of his past three starts. His latest resulted in a T9 in 2021. His overall game is getting better as well as he's posted top-10s in all three starts on the PGA Tour in 2022.

Shane Lowry (40-1)

If weather is going to be an issue, especially wind, we should really be looking at the guys who are used to playing in tough conditions. Lowry won an Open Championship, so we know he can handle the wind, but can he handle this course? Up until this past year the answer was "no," but he posted a solo 8th in 2021, so that box is checked as well. He has the form box checked as well, as he nearly won in his most recent start. Lowry has a lot going for a guy at this number.

LONG SHOTS

Si Woo Kim (60-1)

It's a little surprising to see Kim this far down on the odds chart, but then again, his name doesn't carry the cache as many others on the PGA Tour, so the bookmakers know that even at this number, they're not likely to see a lot of action on Kim. That could be a mistake however as Kim has been playing well for most of this season and his track record here rivals anyone in the field. Kim won this event in 2017, but he also posted a top-10 this past year and he's yet to miss the cut here in five starts.

Chris Kirk (80-1)

I'm just going to leave Kirk in the same spot I had him in this past week at the Arnold Palmer. That start resulted in a T5 and while that doesn't matter when you're placing a wager to win, it's certainly a good sign for this upcoming week. Kirk has played some solid golf over the past month and although his track record at the TPC Sawgrass is a little here and there, he does have a few top-15s. This pick however is based on current form.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Justin Thomas - OAD players generally stay away from the defending champ, but they might reconsider this week. To be honest, there isn't a clear-cut favorite even if a couple guys look like solid picks, so ownership should be widely spread. With that said, JT is always a fan favorite and there's every reason to think he can thrive as his game is in decent shape and his track record here is solid.

Moderately-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - I will never try to talk anyone out of taking Morikawa as he's one of the most dependable plays on the PGA Tour and his upside matches anyone out here and while I think his odds are a little light to win, he still makes a fine OAD play. My only concern is his lack of success on this particular track. There are some guys that just can't figure out this track and although I doubt Morikawa will be one of them, there's always a chance until he's actually done it.

Lightly-owned Pick: Shane Lowry - With the size of the purse, it will be awfully hard to pass up an elite player, but if you are feeling lucky, Lowry could be your guy. On the opposite side of the large purse argument is this week's weather, which could lead some OAD players to refrain from using an elite player, as no one wants to waste a top option when weather is going to wreak havoc.

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - He is fighting it right now and I know there are people out there expecting him to right the ship at any moment, but I'm not sure that's going to happen anytime soon. Throw in some bad weather and this could one of those weeks where DJ never really checks-in. His track record here is just okay, he's made 10-of-12 cuts, but has just one top-10.

Last Week: Sungjae Im  - T20 - $131,400

Season Total: $3,512,124

This Week: Shane Lowry - Let me start by stating this first -- I would not be doing this if not for the forecast. This purse is too big to mess around with, but the weather is predicted to be so awful that it could neutralize the elite players. As much as I want that $3 million win, I'm not about to waste Morikawa or Rahm during a monsoon. It's a huge risk, but Lowry has a lot going for him.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Rory McIlroy $11,600
Middle Range: Shane Lowry $9,600
Lower Range: Si Woo Kim $8,700

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Rory McIlroy - T13

Streak: 1

This Week: Sergio Garcia - A couple things to keep in mind this week in this format. First, this is a unique course, so I wouldn't stray too far away from those that have played well here. Second, the weather is going to be a factor. You need to find someone who has a long history of playing well on this course and can also handle some weather. Garcia seems to fit the bill.