This article is part of our DraftKings NHL series.
The Islanders have outplayed the Lightning at 5-on-5, registering 8.95 xGF/60 compared to the a 6.99 mark. The Lightning have scored twice on 10 power-play opportunities this series, while the Islanders have just one goal on 11 opportunities. That's on par with the regular season, as both teams finished in the top-6 for the penalty kill.
These are two very sound defensive teams, so it's no surprise that they've averaged a combined 4.25 goals per game thus far. Monday's game is predictably set at 5.0 O/U on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All advanced statistics are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Semyon Varlamov ($15,000): The numbers in the preview don't lie. The Islanders have been the better team this series, and Varlamov isn't going to fold unless he gets truly tested. In short, he won't lose the Islanders this series. I've listed him at his Captain price in showdowns, and I think he's well worth it with a likely low-scoring clash on tap.
Barzal has looked truly fantastic through the playoffs and especially against the Lightning, producing 4.83 xGF/60 at even strength – the highest among anyone on either side of the ice. He's still reasonably priced, and the addition of Komarov should keep the overall price tag fairly low. Barzal has gamebreaking upside, though, and we've seen it in recent games, as he's put up six goals and two helpers over the past eight contests.
Steven Stamkos ($8,400): Stamkos has just one point over the past five games, and he's fired just five shots on net during that stretch. There's no reason to think he can't start producing at any time, though, and the Lightning will have the first line change tonight at home. I'm still confident in Varlamov, but if you're looking to fade that pick, Stamkos should be in your equation.
Cal Clutterbuck ($2,000): Clutterbuck plays in the bottom six, but he's still managed to ring up a goal, two assists and eight shots on net over the past two games. He's generating chances and is a strong veteran presence on this team. The analytics back him up as well, as he's second behind Mathew Barzal with 3.91 xGF/60 at even strength.
Victor Hedman ($8,800): It's easy to like Hedman here. After all, he's notched three multi-point games this postseason, though he's gone pointless in two of four games this series. Nevertheless, he's been buzzing against the Islanders, generating a goal and two assists while blocking eight shots and firing another nine on net. Though we're typically targeting the upside with Hedman, he's a decent play even if you're riding with Varlamov, as he carries a high floor regardless.
Adam Pelech ($5,200): Pelech has blocked at least two shots in five straight games. DraftKings dishes out a bonus at three blocked shots, so Pelech has a clear avenue to pay back dividends to fantasy players. His offensive upside is modest but apparent, too, as he set up two goals in Game 4.