NHL Picks Today: Best NHL Bets for Tuesday, May 3

NHL Picks Today: Best NHL Bets for Tuesday, May 3

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

With the Stanley Cup Playoffs underway, Will Saad digs into his best bets to target for Tuesday's action.

Matthew Tkachuk o2.5 Shots on Goal (PrizePicks)

All the numbers are showing that Calgary should have their way with getting shots on Dallas' defense. With Calgary averaging 36.3 shots per game in the last 10 and Dallas allowing 35.1 shots per game in the last 10 and 37.4 in the last 5, adding onto the fact that Calgary is averaging 36.67 against Dallas in the 3 matchups this season, this should leave plenty of opportunity for Tkachuk. RotoWire has him projected at 2.67 shots on goal and in the last 3 matchups vs. Dallas, Tkachuk has gotten 4, 3 and 2 shots on goal. One more thing to consider is the fact that in the last 10 home games, Tkachuk is averaging 3.2 Shots on goal per game, as opposed to 2.3 away from home. Those numbers turn to 2.8 and 2 respectively if you look at away games, so Calgary playing at home is a big boost for him, and that gap becomes even more important for playoffs. In all three matchups this season he has not gotten less than four shots, and the only game vs. Dallas where he went under this mark (with 2), he had 6 shots, his highest of the 3. He has only had one other game in the last 30 home games where he had six or more shots (8 other times) and went under 2.5 shots. To top it all off, he is -140 odds on DraftKings, while PrizePicks has fixed payouts for all props.

Mikko Rantanen o3 Shots on Goal (PrizePicks)

In 4 games against Nashville this season, Rantanen has gotten 6, 6, 1 and 2 shots on goal. While the 1 and 2 shot games are the most recent ones, it is noteworthy that the two games with six shots on goal were two home games and he got 10 and 7 shot attempts in each of those games respectively. The most recent one, with 2 shots on goal, was also at home and he had four shot attempts and 24 minutes on the ice. In the last 30 games, he has had 4 shot attempts on 26 occasions and only went under on five of those occasions. At home this season, Rantanen is averaging 3.6 shots on goal per game, and while that number goes down to 2.9 in the last 10, the push seems like a likely scenario but I like the upside of the over much more than I feel the risk of the under occurring given the information above. From a team and matchup perspective, Nashville is giving up 35.3 shots on goal per game in the last 10 and 34.2 in the last five, while Colorado is averaging 37.6 shots on goal per game in the last 10. Similar to Tkachuk, as long as he is on the ice, the opportunity should absolutely be there. RotoWire has him projected at 3.28 shots on goal and his odds to get at least 3 are -180 on DraftKings.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
William Saad
I have developed algorithms for multiple sports to help everyone win money along with me. We all know the books are good at what they do, but they are not perfect. My goal is to expose the lines that I believe are mistakes and help you all take advantage through the help of algorithms that I develop!
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