College Hockey Weekend Preview: Top Matchups, Goalie Battles & Best Bets for October
We're heading into the fourth weekend of college hockey, and this will be our second betting article of the season. We have received some information on teams that we didn't have before, especially with their respective goaltending situations, so we're not going in blind.
In our first article, we finished 10-15-0 -- if we bet each proposed game twice. With a bet size of 1.0 unit, we would've finished roughly -3.12 units because we did hit on a couple of underdogs. Sometimes, odds change after a Friday night game, so it's not always wise to double-back and make the same bet Saturday night. But for tracking purposes, we'll keep an eye on both matchups.
With more information in hand, it's time to turn the ship around with a loaded slate, starting Thursday with a matchup of two top-3 teams in Michigan and Western Michigan.
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College Hockey Betting Insights for Thursday's Games
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 2 Western Michigan Broncos
Michigan is a perfect 6-0 to start the season, including a dominating road sweep against No. 15 Providence. They lead college hockey with 6.7 goals per game, with the next closest team (Miami) ringing in at the 4.8 mark, although Michigan has run up the score on Mercyhurst and Robert Morris, both winless schools. The Wolverines are star-studded, and the biggest question heading into the season was goaltending. Freshman Jack Ivankovic has answered the bell, registering an astounding .942 save percentage, a 1.17 GAA and a shutout.
Thursday's game should be the toughest test for both teams. The Broncos hung their National Championship banner on Opening Night before losing to unranked Ferris State, but they have been perfect since then, tacking on two wins on the road against UMass-Lowell. Goaltender Hampton Slukynsky has yet to be tested with a .890 save percentage and a 2.02 GAA. Their defense remains sturdy, featuring a nation-high 65.3 Corsi For percentage, which measures high-danger shots, and a ninth-ranked 92.3 penalty-kill percentage.
Western Michigan will need to slow Michigan's stars down to win this game, and they have the depth on the blue line to execute coach Pat Ferschweiler's game plan. Both goalies are incredibly strong, too, making me lean towards the under. As much as I view Western Michigan as a clear top-10 team, we haven't seen a star scorer break out yet, forcing me to give the edge to Michigan in this matchup.
- Michigan ML (-166 DraftKings)
- U 6.5 (+105 DraftKings)
College Hockey Betting Picks & Odds for Friday's Games
No. 7 Denver Pioneers at No. 9 Boston College Eagles
Boston College was projected for a slight down year, but they have remained impressive since their opening loss to Quinnipiac by going on the road and securing a win and a tie against Minnesota before trouncing RPI last week. Now, they return home to face Denver, who knocked them out to get into the Frozen Four last season.
The Eagles have a deep corps at forward with sophomores James Hagens, Dean Letourneau and Jake Sondreal leading the way. Freshman goaltender Louka Cloutier has been a revelation with a .937 save percentage, a 1.30 GAA and a 2-0-1 record since taking over the crease. Meanwhile, Denver has been shaky to begin the season, tying Air Force to open the year before losing to Lindenwood on the road last week. Their goaltending has been fantastic against lesser competition, and I'd expect freshman Quentin Miller to get the nod Friday after posting a shutout last Saturday.
With each goaltender facing its toughest competition of their respective college careers, this could easily be a high-scoring game. After all, the Eagles have multiple first-round picks at their disposal while the Pioneers have gotten immediate dividends from CHL freshman Clarke Caswell (2G, 3A) and defenseman Eric Jamieson (1G, 2A). I'm giving the edge to the home favorites because Denver's resume looks highly questionable right now.
- Boston College ML (-130 DraftKings)
- O6.5 (-105 DraftKings)
No. 15 Providence Friars at No. 19 St. Thomas Tommies
The Tommies open their brand new arena with a ranked matchup versus the Friars on Friday. While the Tommies' ranking is a bit suspect after they lost to Air Force last week, they also showcased their offensive explosiveness by beating Air Force 11-2 in the other game that weekend. I'm further confused by the Tommies' goaltending rotation, as sophomore transfer Carsen Musser has started five of six games over senior Aaron Trotter. Musser has produced an .835 save percentage and a 4.76 GAA compared to Trotter's .911 and 2.50 marks, respectively. The rest of their lineup is deep, however, and their key players have seemingly taken the necessary steps, as Alex Gaffney has nine points and Chase Cheslock has five points through five games.
The Friars have just one win (against RPI) through their first three games, but there's no shame in getting swept by Michigan. Providence is an excellent team on paper, with five of last year's top six scorers returning while adding first-round pick Roger McQueen in August. Senior goaltender Philip Svedeback adds stability in net, too. Overall, we would've liked to see them score more than a goal in each game against Michigan, but the Friars can still be good without being on the Wolverines' level. However, I worry about their long-term outlook with such a young blue line at the helm, and it will be hard to trust them until they prove it.
I like the Tommies as a result. I will fade this matchup altogether if Trotter isn't starting. The senior goalie has played better thus far, and keeping him on the bench signals this team isn't serious about winning.
- St. Thomas ML (+140 DraftKings)
- O 5.5 (-125 DraftKings)
No. 12 Minnesota Gophers vs. No. 18 Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs
Minnesota has started the season 2-3-1 with losses to Michigan Tech, Boston College and North Dakota. Two of those are bluebloods, and Michigan Tech is underrated, but Minnesota will not be a powerhouse this season. It's a top-heavy team with some true studs at forward in Brody Lamb and Brodie Ziemer, but it's also a young team that has struggled defensively, registering a 40.5 Corsi For percentage, 50th in the nation.
The Bulldogs have exceeded expectations by rocketing out to a 5-1-0 start and scoring four-plus goals in each of their wins. They've enjoyed improvements from second-year forwards Max Plante, Jayson Shaugabay and Zam Plante, as the trio has combined for 13 goals and 34 points so far. Goaltender Adam Gajan – a 2023 second-round pick – has put forth a superb .922 save percentage.
The Bulldogs have the weapons and the depth on the blue line to pull off an upset on the road this weekend. The odds are extremely favorable, too.
- Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs ML (+250 DraftKings)
No. 13 UMass Minutemen at Omaha Mavericks
Two outstanding goalies face off in Nebraska on Friday. Minutemen netminder Michael Hrabal has picked up right where he left off with a .924 save percentage and a 2.40 GAA through five games, while Simon Latkoczy has tallied .928 and 2.52 marks, respectively.
The Minutemen have started the year hot offensively, scoring 4.0 goals per game, although they have mostly faced weaker competition. Still, senior forward Jack Musa (4G, 5A) is a proven commodity, while freshman first-round pick Vaclav Nestrasil has exploded onto the scene with five goals through five games. Furthermore, the Minutemen returned their top-four defensemen from last season, featuring two draft picks in Francesco Dell'Elce (2G, 3A) and Larry Keenan (1G, 1A).
Senior defenseman Jacob Guevin will provide stability on the Mavericks' blue line, but it's a younger unit overall that will be seriously tested by the Minutemen's talent. They can't afford to get into a track meet in this game. I don't think it will come to that, but the Minutemen have the clear edge in talent and in goal.
- UMass ML (-115 DraftKings)
- U 5.5 (+100 DraftKings)
No. 4 Boston University Terriers vs. No. 11 UConn Huskies
The Terriers just got swept at home by No. 1 Michigan State, so they're in must-win mode entering Hockey East play. They're possibly the most talented team in the nation with 19 draft picks and three first-rounders, including sophomore forward Cole Eiserman – who has five goals in five games – leading the charge
UConn is a rising program; however, coming off its first tournament appearance. It returns goalie Tyler Muszelik, who is red-hot with a .939 save percentage. They have firepower on top of their depth chart with Joey Muldowney – three goals through four games – and Jake Richard, and they returned most of their blue line from last season. Overall, they have given up 2.75 goals per game while scoring 3.0 goals per game.
These two teams split the season series 1-1-1 last year. Both of these goalies can take over a game, but UConn shouldn't be overlooked in this scenario. They're sound enough defensively to steal a win this weekend, and I could see a pair of low-scoring matchups, too, as Terriers goaltender Mikhail Yegorov is among the best in the country.
- UConn ML (+190)
- U 6.5 (-110)
