This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
How often have you tried using a defenseman in your flex spot at DraftKings?
Could a rearguard who logs heavy minutes have more value than a similarly-priced forward who receives less ice time?
Rarely is a defenseman utilized in the flex slot, and whether using one could be a better option than a forward was posed to me recently. Initially, it seemed unlikely to payoff. However, there are a few realities which suggest there could be an advantage to occasionally rostering three defensemen in your DraftKings lineups.
The above-mentioned ice time is one factor. Minute eaters are theoretically more likely to register fantasy points. More ice time leads to more opportunities. Although, it is important to account for the fact that all ice time isn't created equally. Power-play minutes and offensive-zone start percentages -- topics previously covered here -- should also be considered.
Secondly, defensemen are cheaper the majority of the time. On occasion, DraftKings will have a defenseman hovering around $8,000, but typically their prices provide a sizeable discount between the top-priced forwards and the top-priced defensemen. The mid-tiers feature the same price disparity.
Because you'll often find top- and second-tier defensemen priced similarly to third- or fourth-tier forwards, there will be times where utilizing three defensemen in your lineups is viable. However, the nature of DraftKings' quick-reaction pricing usually lands a top-tier forward or two into this price range, too.
Here is a recap of forwards and defensemen priced between $3,900 to $5,500 at DraftKings on Tuesday and their fantasy points. These players weren't cherry picked afterwards, and therefore, there are obviously other higher and lower scorers not included, but these were all players worth considering at their price points.
Focusing on the fantasy points, four defensemen were the highest scorers out of the 24 players. Additionally, defenseman averaged more fantasy points (3.125 to 2.29) as a whole, and they also scored more fantasy points (2.63 to 2.06) when the two-highest and two-lowest scorers from each position were removed.
Forwards were more reliable and consistent, though, as the standard deviation was much smaller among them. Six forwards finished within a fantasy point of their average, whereas only one defenseman finished within the same range. This is important because the small sample size would suggest utilizing a mid-priced forward is more conducive to cash games, while defenseman might have more worth in tournaments.
The high-risk, high-reward nature of large contests with just a few payouts requires the odd calculated gamble, especially a contrarian one. Utilizing an extra defenseman may be an avenue to achieving it. Plus, given the pricing structure detailed earlier, this may also allow you to allot more cap space to high-end goalies or star forwards.
Obviously this is a small sample size, and there were dud performances from both forwards and defensemen. Also, even though four defensemen out-produced Jakub Voracek, at his cap hit, he was the top play of all 24 players, with David Backes, T.J. Oshie and Anze Kopitar following. It would be hard to skip over Nikita Kucherov in favor of a rearguard, too.
It is also worth noting that three of the defensemen (P.K. Subban, Drew Doughty and Keith Yandle) who returned the least value were among the five most-expensive options. Yandle even registered 4:58 minutes of power-play ice time against the league's second-worst penalty kill and returned a bagel. Again, it is a high-risk, high-reward position, and Justin Faulk, Dougie Hamilton, Alex Pietrangelo and Jake Muzzin took care of the other end of the spectrum.
There were eight games Tuesday, and going with the three-defensemen approach is likely best suited for larger game slates. When the options are limited, consistent and reliable points are at a premium. Without plus/minus included, you'll also want to target high-scoring games; Faulk, Hamilton, Pietrangelo and Muzzin were involved in games with an average of 6.5 total goals.
While incorporating a third defenseman into your lineups may not become a nightly occurrence, it is an interesting strategy. At the very least, it is an avenue to consider as you're building your best possible lineup.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
