Let's take a deeper look at the teams contending for the Western Conference title. Jan Levine has already provided his extensive playoff preview, and the Eastern Conference version of this article can be found here.
The statistical breakdowns below can help highlight potential mismatches within each series while also providing a snapshot of every team's current form and path to the playoffs.
Don't be shy about commenting with your thoughts and predictions on these matchups.
Blackhawks-Predators
This is a tough draw for the Blackhawks. Chicago paced the Western Conference and went on an absolute tear in the second half, but still has a daunting first-round matchup against a deep Nashville squad. While the Predators will need to improve their play on the road and didn't finish the campaign strong, their potential to suffocate opposing offenses brings an upset into play.
Interestingly, Chicago might actually have some statistical growth ahead. Considering the clientele on that No. 1 power-play unit, there could easily be improvement with the man advantage, especially considering Nashville's struggles while shorthanded. The Blackhawks also began to generate more high-danger scoring chances down the stretch, which is encouraging against a stingy opponent.
Many will blindly back the Blackhawks because of their track record of success, but Nashville shouldn't be underestimated. The difference could easily come down to what version of Pekka Rinne shows up. The veteran backstop finished the season with a 6-3-1 record, .936 save percentage and 1.80 GAA in his final 10 games, but he's also struggled through plenty of rough stretches this year. Turning to the Predators could turn into contrarian gold… or ashes.
Wild-Blues
The Blues' run following their coaching change in early February has been impressive, as they've shut down opponents with elite defense both at even strength and while shorthanded. However, they've also sacrificed some offensive chances to play a more responsible game defensively, and the Blues' possession numbers dipped slightly in the second half.
The Wild struggled through March (3-10-2), but won four straight in convincing fashion to finish the campaign. Additionally, Minnesota has some positive regression ahead after posting a 99.3 PDO in the second half. Losing so many games down the stretch despite a 55.43 Corsi For percentage after March 1 highlights some tough puck luck, too. The Wild have a deep lineup with capable two-way players up front and on the blue line, so as long as Devan Dubnyk plays to his potential, his club will be a difficult out.
St. Louis is certainly capable of winning this series, but Minnesota's one-two-three punch up the middle will be a nightmare. The Wild also have the scoring depth to mitigate the lack of a superstar, and their mobile defense corps is underrated. If it comes down to a seventh game, Minnesota will be difficult to top on home ice.
Ducks-Flames
Anaheim was dominant at home again this season and also finished the campaign strong. However, it's definitely concerning that the Ducks began to play a more wide-open game after March 1, trading high-danger scoring chances to a greater degree. Their 104 PDO has negative regression ahead, and expecting John Gibson to carry the team could be a problem, considering that he's made just four starts since late February.
The Flames took the league by storm in the middle of the season and posted an impressive second-half record. Still, Calgary lost a home-and-home series against Anaheim in April, and the Flames didn't finish the campaign in strong form. There isn't a lot playoff experience on the Calgary roster, but it's a deep club, and Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and Matthew Tkachuk have established themselves as an elite shutdown trio that can also score. Meanwhile, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan provide an admirable one-two punch that could win the series for Calgary.
With that in mind, Ryan Getzlaf can still take his game to another level and lead Anaheim to Round 2. The Ducks have an experienced trio of centers that are matchup-proof, and Rickard Rakell and Jacob Silfverberg have emerged as legitimate scorers. Corey Perry has positive regression ahead of his 8.8 shooting percentage, too. Expect the Ducks to squeak out of this matchup, but Calgary won't be a pushover.
Oilers-Sharks
It'll be interesting to see whether Joe Thornton (knee) and/or Logan Couture (face) are limited at all in this series. Without those two centers close to 100 percent, the Sharks will likely have a very difficult time trying to slow down Connor McDavid. It's especially concerning because San Jose finished the season with a losing record after March 1 that coincided with a lot of trouble killing penalties.
Edmonton, on the other hand, cruised to the finish line. Most impressive was the uptick in high-danger scoring chances, which aligned with McDavid's 14-game point streak (seven goals, 18 assists and eight multi-point showings) to conclude the campaign. With San Jose's power play in a year-long funk, it might prove difficult for the Sharks to keep pace with Edmonton if McDavid isn't held in check. Martin Jones' .882 save percentage and 3.54 GAA through his final eight outings don't inspire much confidence either.
The Sharks obviously have plenty of playoff experience and a deep roster, and San Jose might be a better team top to bottom than Edmonton. However, the superstar factor cannot be overlooked, and the supporting cast has picked up the offensive production for the Oilers of late. Perhaps McDavid underwhelms in his playoff debut, which might be what it takes for San Jose to advance.
Neil joined Chris Meaney on the FNTSY Network Inside Edge hockey podcast to discuss all the upcoming playoff series:
Glossary
CF% = Corsi For percentage
Adj. CF% = Adjusted Corsi For percentage
HDSC per 60 = High-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes
HDSCA per 60 = High-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes
SF% = Shots For percentage
PP G per 60 = Power-play goals per 60 minutes
PP% = Power-play percentage
PK GA per 60 = Power-play goals allowed per 60 minutes
PK% - Penalty-kill percentage
PenD - Penalty differential
PDO - Sum of a team's save percentage and shooting percentage
All stats sourced from Corsica and NaturalStatTrick, and are based on five-on-five play unless stated otherwise.
