DFS Soccer 101: Do Losing Teams Cross More?

DFS Soccer 101: Do Losing Teams Cross More?

This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.

When it comes to predicting crosses, one of the things that might be overlooked is game flow. The general idea is that when a team falls behind, they are more likely to go into an all-out attack, with the wings playing a vital role. The corollary is that teams that send in a lot of crosses find themselves behind quite a bit, and thus tend to push the pace. Here, we'll examine team crossing statistics and see which ones send in the most compared to their record in the Premier League.

Team Crosses Wins Draws Losses
Crystal Palace 651 9 5 12
Southampton 638 11 7 8
Manchester City 630 14 5 7
West Brom 583 8 8 10
Manchester United 567 11 8 7
Everton 559 8 11 7
Liverpool 557 10 8 8
Aston Villa 557 3 7 16
Arsenal 542 15 6 5
Norwich 532 6 6 14
West Ham 532 10 10 6
Newcastle 525 6 6 14
Chelsea 522 8 9 9
Bournemouth 514 7 7 12
Tottenham 505 14 9 3
Swansea City 502 6 9 11
Leicester City 496 15 8 3
Stoke City 452 10 6 10
Watford 440 10 6 10
Sunderland 405 6 5 15

The correlation of win/loss record with crosses is a mixed bag. Overall, the theory is that the more a team loses, the more crosses it will deliver down the stretch of games in an attempt to level. I still stand by the theory and will apply it to last week's matches to see how it holds up.

Home Team Away Team First Goal Scored Home Crosses
Before Goal
Home Crosses
After Goal
Away Crosses
Before Goal
Away Crosses
After Goal
More Crosses
Sunderland Manchester United Sunderland 3' 0 17 0 22 losing team
Bournemouth Stoke City Stoke City 9' 2 26 1 13 losing team
Crystal Palace Watford Watford 16' 4 29 4 10 losing team
Everton West Brom West Brom 14' 5 50 3 4 losing team
Norwich West Ham Norwich 54' 13 5 11 10 losing team
Swansea City Southampton Southampton 69' 17 13 17 2 losing team
Chelsea Newcastle Chelsea 5' 0 14 0 20 losing team
Arsenal Leicester City Leicester City 45' 15 35 8 4 losing team
Aston Villa Liverpool Liverpool 16' 3 10 3 16 winning team
Manchester City Tottenham Tottenham 53' 7 18 11 2 losing team

You'll notice that despite several teams being heavy underdogs, nine times out of 10 this weekend, the team that conceded a goal first ended up delivering more crosses throughout the rest of the match. The biggest thing to notice is that the rate of crosses increases after a team concedes a goal regardless of when the goal was conceded. The table below shows the rate of crosses as it relates to before and after a team conceded a goal:

Team Conceded First? Min Per Cross
Before Goal
Min Per Cross
After Goal
Difference
Sunderland no 0.00 5.12 5.12
Bournemouth yes 4.50 3.12 -1.38
Crystal Palace yes 4.00 2.55 -1.45
Everton yes 2.80 1.52 -1.28
Norwich no 4.15 7.20 3.05
Swansea City yes 4.06 1.62 -2.44
Chelsea no 0.00 6.07 6.07
Arsenal yes 3.00 1.29 -1.71
Aston Villa yes 5.33 7.40 2.07
M. City yes 7.57 2.06 -5.52
Manchester United yes 0.00 3.95 3.95
Stoke City no 9.00 6.23 -2.77
Watford no 4.00 7.40 3.40
West Brom no 4.67 19.00 14.33
West Ham yes 4.91 3.60 -1.31
Southampton no 4.06 10.50 6.44
Newcastle yes 0.00 4.25 4.25
Leicester City no 5.63 11.25 5.63
Liverpool no 5.33 4.63 -0.71
Tottenham no 4.82 18.50 13.68

The five teams that delivered the most crosses after a goal was scored were all teams that conceded first. These were also the teams that had the most to prove by not losing. Arsenal, Everton, Swansea City, Manchester City and Crystal Palace all increased their rate of crossing after conceding a goal. Arsenal and Manchester City are in a battle for first place, while Everton, Swansea and Crystal Palace were all home teams that fell behind to their opponents and were looking to get back in the game.

Conclusion

While we may never be able to predict who scores first in a match, we can use what we know about how the games will potentially go to help us make better selections for our fantasy teams. For example, one decision I was faced with this weekend was Willian versus Dimitri Payet. On the surface, Willian had a higher floor because he was on a home team that was heavily favored to win, and in fact, Willian scored the first goal five minutes in. Meanwhile, Payet was playing on the road and his team fell behind in the 54th minute and West Ham had to battle from behind to secure a 2-2 draw. And while Willian and Payet both managed to score a goal and an assist, Payet had 12 crosses to Willian's six, leading us to realize after the fact that Payet was the better choice given that his team was on the road and likely had worse odds to win than Willian.

Obviously, this is anecdotal and we cannot take one weekend of events and assume it applies to an entire season. However, I'll be testing out this theory in my analysis and targeting attacking midfielders on teams that may fall behind early and hope that the increase in production helps me when the time comes.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Hesh Hambazaza
Hesh writes daily fantasy soccer content for RotoWire and in his spare time is a father, husband and electrical systems designer for NASA rockets.
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