Welcome to The Back Three, your new weekly(ish) stop for under-discussed and possibly genius fantasy takes. While unlikely, there is always a chance that this insight will help you win your FPL mini-league or at least give you something to say in your group chat (shout-out "Tbreds"). This isn't your standard "Top 5 Must-Haves" blog. It's the B-side of fantasy content. We'll be looking for hidden gems, unexpected angles, and picks that help you see the game a little differently.
We start this year with a look at two game-changing rule tweaks and your new striker.
New Rules and Why Defenders Might Win You the League
The old adage says "defense wins championships," but that hasn't always been true in FPL, until now. The new Defensive Contribution rule gives points for clearances, blocks, interceptions, and tackles, turning those boring defenders into potential game changing weapons! No longer is it just about clean sheets and an occasional set-piece goal; now the defenders are getting rewarded for defending.
So, how do you take advantage of this? Well, two names jump off the stat sheet as major beneficiaries of this shift: Murillo (Nottingham Forest) and Nathan Collins (Brentford).
Murillo, the 23-year-old Brazilian, would've scored 38 more points last season under the new rules, boosting him to 168 points. That would have been more than both van Dijk and Gvardiol. Last year, Murillo led the Premier League in clearances and was third in blocks. He also added attacking upside: 98th percentile in take-ons per 90 among defenders, and 86th in shot-creating actions. Priced at £5.5m, he should be a look in your back.
Another beneficiary of the new rules is Nathan Collins, who would've logged 159 points under the new scoring. For context, that is more points than Trent Alexander-Arnold had, and many people considered him a must-have, for a lot more $$$. The 24-year-old Irishman started all 38 matches for Brentford, ranking first in the league blocks, 3rd in clearances, and 97th percentile for touches in the opposition penalty area. He's involved on both ends, costs just £5.0m, and seems like a great addition to your defense!
The Chaos Assist Era Begins
Luck is a skill, or at least it will be this season. The new assist rules now reward some of those "of course it was a pass" moments and more. The new rule now allows for the following to be added to your score:
- Deflected passes (if only one touch and the recipient is inside the box)
- Unforced defensive errors leading to goals
- Winning handball penalties or free-kicks that result in goals
Translation: more assists, and more players who may stumble into points you didn't expect.
Two Fulham players could quietly become must-haves thanks to their crossing and chaos-creation.
Fulham's Andreas Pereira completed the second-most crosses in the Premier League last year in just over 2,000 minutes. Among midfielders, he ranked in the 97th percentile for shot-creating actions and 93rd percentile for expected assists. At just £5.5m, Pereira could ride the new rules to consistent returns.
Then there's Antonee Robinson (£5.0m), who quietly did everything a fantasy manager could want. He finished fifth in completed crosses league-wide, hit the 97th percentile in expected assists among defenders, and was an elite defender in progression stats: 91st percentile in progressive carries, 93rd in progressive passes received. He even ranked 97th in interceptions and 90th in clearances. He's built for this new era of fantasy points, on both ends of the field!
Sunderland 'Til I Die
After being loaned from Chelsea to Sunderland, Marc Guiu and his £4.5 pricetag, should become one of the more rostered forwards in the league.
The 6'2" Spanish striker might not feature in many Premier League fantasy previews, but now that his loan is finalized, he becomes a very intriguing early-season flyer in FPL. Guiu is physical, efficient, and relentless on the pitch. While he didn't log many minutes for Chelsea in Premier League play last year, he was a goal-scoring monster for Chelsea in the Conference League. In six Conference League games (four starts), he scored seven goals in a total of 286 minutes of play. While scoring 2.2 goals every 90min might be a lot to ask of a 19-year-old, it does let us know he can find the back of the net when given time. Sunderland's opening fixtures with West Ham, Burnley, Brentford, and Crystal Palace offer Guiu the perfect chance to score some early goals and potentially rack up some unexpected fantasy points!
The Back Three Highlight of the Week
Huge congratulations to the Vermont Green on not just winning the USL2 National Championship, but also on uniting an entire state!
If you don't already know this, Vermont is the new Soccer Capital of the US with the NCAA Champions University of Vermont Catamounts and now the USL2 Champs. For added fun, the same player, Max Kissel, scored the game-winner in both (one in extra time and one in injury time). Click here to see both highlights.
