2025 Cincinnati Open: Top Upsets, Locks, and Value Bets for Round 1 Friday
First-round play continues Friday at the Cincinnati Open. All 32 seeds in both the men's and women's singles draws have byes into the second round, so Friday's hard-court action will feature only unseeded players. A big name on the women's side whose play has slipped in 2025 is on upset alert, while a couple of Americans will look to capitalize on favorable draws against opponents with limited track records at the sport's highest level.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Kamilla Rakhimova (+215) vs. Maria Sakkari
Rakhimova showed she can knock off big names by upsetting Jasmine Paolini at Wimbledon, and the 62nd-ranked Russian has had a chance to acclimate to the conditions here by winning a pair of matches in qualifying. Sakkari has had a rough season, dropping to No. 72 while posting a 19-22 record. While Sakkari showed some progress with a nice quarterfinal run in Washington recently, her average level this year has been no higher than Rakhimova's.
Borna Coric (+175) vs. Emilio Nava
Coric came out of nowhere to win the Cincinnati Open in 2022 as the world No. 152 at the time, so the former world No. 12 won't sweat his current No. 92 ranking heading into this year's event. Even that ranking is enough for a 22-spot edge over Nava, whose current No. 114 ranking is the highest of his career. Nava's just 8-20 in ATP Tour main draw matches in his career, so it's hard to pencil him in as a clear favorite here despite Coric having only one Tour-level win in 2025.
Honorable Mention
Moyuka Uchijima (+160) vs. Camila Osorio
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Learner Tien (-275) vs. Leandro Riedi
Tien has fared well in his first full year on the ATP Tour, currently sitting at a career-high No. 61 and set to climb from there after reaching the Round of 16 at the Canadian Open. The 19-year-old American has been at his best on hard courts, with an 11-8 record on the surface in 2025. Riedi did well to come through qualifying here, but the world No. 487 has yet to win a main draw match on the ATP Tour in 2025 and is just 3-9 in such matches in his career.
Marcos Giron (-175) vs. Alexander Blockx
Giron's 10-8 on hard courts this year and is currently ranked 59th. The 32-year-old American lacks major weapons but covers the court well and gets himself in position to consistently hit forehands. Blockx is 0-6 in ATP Tour-level main draw matches in his career, so Giron should take care of business against the world No. 121.
Honorable Mention
Jaume Munar (-275) vs. Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Sebastian Ofner (-120) vs. Valentin Royer
Ofner's currently ranked No. 114, but he's a former top-40 player and recently reached the third round at Wimbledon. He has a significant edge in experience over the 24-year-old Royer, who has won only one match at the ATP Tour level in his career. That win came at Wimbledon over Stefanos Tsitsipas via retirement, so Royer has yet to win such a match against a healthy opponent.
Polina Kudermetova (+120) vs. Ella Seidel
Kudermetova's much less accomplished than her older sister Veronika, but the 22-year-old Polina has put her name on the map in 2025, climbing to No. 56 in the rankings due primarily to some solid hard-court results, including a WTA 500 final in Brisbane to begin the year. Seidel's also an up-and-coming youngster, but the 20-year-old German appears to be a step behind Kudermetova in her development. The 117th-ranked German lost via retirement in her last two tournaments prior to this one, so while she got through two qualifying matches here without a setback, she may still be at less than full health.
Honorable Mention
Lulu Sun (+110) vs. Antonia Ruzic
