Deep Dive: Eastern Conference Playoffs

Deep Dive: Eastern Conference Playoffs

Jan Levine has already provided his extensive playoff preview, but we've heard the call for a more sabermetric look at things, so let's take a deeper look at the teams contending for the Eastern Conference title.

Check out the Western Conference edition, too.

These statistical breakdowns can help highlight potential mismatches within each series while also providing a snapshot of every team's current form and path to the playoffs.

Don't be shy about hitting the comments with your thoughts or predictions.

Capitals-Leafs

Expectations have been exceeded in Toronto, and the reward for making the playoffs for the first time since the 2012-13 campaign is a date with the Capitals -- an absolute juggernaut. Not only do the Presidents' Trophy winners boast a potent lineup top to bottom, but Washington is also peaking at the right time. The Caps have improved their possession numbers and power-play percentage down the stretch, and they've also reduced their penalties since March 1.

Toronto plays an uptempo game with a lot of scoring chances for and against; while the Leafs have tidied things up a degree down the stretch, expecting them to change significantly is ill-advised. Slowing down the Washington power play will also likely be a tall task for Toronto.

It appears both teams will be at full strength, and Washington should handle Toronto in short order. This has the makings of a five-game series, which will provide added rest for Washington ahead of what projects to be a deep playoff run. After posting a .943 save percentage the past two years in the playoffs, Braden Holtby just needs a little goal support to carry the Caps to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Penguins-Blue Jackets

Probably the most compelling first-round bout in the Eastern Conference, Columbus and Pittsburgh had a memorable series in the 2014 playoffs, and Brandon Dubinsky and Sidney Crosby have a long history of intense in-game matchups. There are also plenty of question marks entering the postseason for both clubs.

Pittsburgh will be without Kris Letang (neck), and Evgeni Malkin (shoulder) might not be 100 percent himself. Columbus, meanwhile, may have peaked a few months ago, as the Jackets have shown signs of fading down the stretch. The Blue Jackets allow oodles of high-danger scoring chances, which puts a lot of pressure on Sergei Bobrovsky. Additionally, the Columbus power play hasn't been as potent as it was early in the year. If it comes down to two teams trading chances, it will be difficult for the Blue Jackets to top Pittsburgh.

Noting the significant disparity in the penalty differential, the Blue Jackets will have to stay disciplined, too. Impressively, even with Malkin and Letang out of action, the Penguins continued to have power-play success. At the same time, the Jackets' physical presence could take a toll on the Pens and impact the longevity of their playoff run. There's upset potential here, but Columbus pushing Pittsburgh to the brink will likely just hinder the Penguins' chances of topping Washington in Round 2.

Canadiens-Rangers

The Rangers struggled down the stretch and rested a number of key cogs that were nursing minor injuries. It appears everyone will be ready for Game 1, but the Blueshirts' weak possession numbers and struggles to to prevent high-danger scoring chances are concerning. Those shortcomings are exacerbated by Henrik Lundqvist's poor play -- both recently and over the course of the campaign.

Montreal, on the other hand, has dealt with plenty of adversity and still finished off the season in strong form. The Canadiens have excellent possession numbers, suppress opponents' quality scoring chances, and boast an excellent penalty kill. Carey Price is also capable of stealing not only games, but an entire series. The Habs will need to see an uptick in power-play production to be a real contender, but at least they've already shown the ability to operate at a high level in the first half of the season.

Despite the significant statistical gaps, this won't be a cakewalk for Montreal. The Rangers have a deep offensive attack, and even with his underwhelming season, Lundqvist has the playoff experience needed to backstop an upset. In fact, this series could prove to be more difficult than the winner's Round 2 test.

Senators-Bruins

The Senators enter with the second-worst Corsi For percentage of all playoff teams and face the best possession team in the postseason. Also encouraging for Boston is the improvement of its power play, which converted 28.9 percent of its opportunities in the second half. Torey Krug's (lower body) availability for later in the series will obviously have a significant impact on the Bruins' attack with the man advantage, though. He's already been declared highly unlikely to play Game 1.

Ottawa's strength has been limiting opponent's high-danger scoring chances, but it's come at the expense of generating its own opportunities. Considering Boston's strong possession numbers and own ability to limit dangerous chances, the Senators could have difficulty scoring. Boston's power play will also be challenging for Ottawa to slow down, as the Sens have struggled while shorthanded in the second half.

The numbers point to Boston, but Ottawa is a pesky opponent that's found ways to win games all year despite owning unflattering statistics. Krug's absence could also limit the advantage of the Bruins' power play. The determining factor will likely be whether the Bruins can keep Erik Karlsson in check because the Senators don't have superstar scorers up front (not to take anything away from Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman). Staying out of penalty trouble will also be important for Boston.

Neil joined Chris Meaney on the FNTSY Network Inside Edge hockey podcast to discuss all the upcoming playoff series:
Glossary

CF% = Corsi For percentage
Adj. CF% = Adjusted Corsi For percentage
HDSC per 60 = High-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes
HDSCA per 60 = High-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes
SF% = Shots For percentage
PP G per 60 = Power-play goals per 60 minutes
PP% = Power-play percentage
PK GA per 60 = Power-play goals allowed per 60 minutes
PK% - Penalty-kill percentage
PenD - Penalty differential
PDO - Sum of a team's save percentage and shooting percentage

All stats sourced from Corsica and NaturalStatTrick, and are based on five-on-five play unless stated otherwise.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Neil Parker
A loyal Cubs, Cowboys and Maple Leafs fan for decades, Neil has contributed to RotoWire since 2014. He previously worked for USA Today Fantasy Sports.
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