The Z Files: So Much To Think About

The Z Files: So Much To Think About

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

As many of you know, I do my own projections. Everyone has their own style and approach, but mine is mostly formulaic. This offseason they'll require more tweaking, with frequent instances where I'll have to override the system. The quirky nature of the 2020 season presents numerous challenges for the fantasy prognosticator. Here are some of some of the elements I've been thinking about.

How much weight should 2020 carry?

I don't want to turn this into a "how the sausage is made" piece, but a little background is needed. The player's baseline comes from a weighted average of previous performance, which in my process is distilled to skills. Different methods incorporate varying numbers of past seasons: I use three, with the most recent weighted more than a year ago, which is weighted more than two seasons ago.

In general, I don't adjust for playing time. Here is an example, using expected homers and a 5:3:1 weighted average. Expected homers translates the player's actual output to an expected amount based on the underlying metrics. Let's say a player's homers translated into the following number of expected homers:

2019: 30 xHR in 600 PA

2018: 27 xHR in 500 PA

2017: 15 xHR in 200 PA

((5 x 30) + (3 x 27) + (1 x 15))/((5 x 600) + (3 x 500) + (1 x 200)) = .052 xHR/PA

If this player was projected for 650 PA this season, his homer expectation would have been

.052 x 650 = 34

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
FanDuel MLB: World Series Game 6 Targets
FanDuel MLB: World Series Game 6 Targets
DraftKings MLB: Game 6 World Series Breakdowns
DraftKings MLB: Game 6 World Series Breakdowns
The Z Files: Focusing On the Big Picture
The Z Files: Focusing On the Big Picture
Bernie on the Scene: More 2020 Rookie Evaluations
Bernie on the Scene: More 2020 Rookie Evaluations