This article is part of our The Z Files series.
As many of you know, I do my own projections. Everyone has their own style and approach, but mine is mostly formulaic. This offseason they'll require more tweaking, with frequent instances where I'll have to override the system. The quirky nature of the 2020 season presents numerous challenges for the fantasy prognosticator. Here are some of some of the elements I've been thinking about.
How much weight should 2020 carry?
I don't want to turn this into a "how the sausage is made" piece, but a little background is needed. The player's baseline comes from a weighted average of previous performance, which in my process is distilled to skills. Different methods incorporate varying numbers of past seasons: I use three, with the most recent weighted more than a year ago, which is weighted more than two seasons ago.
In general, I don't adjust for playing time. Here is an example, using expected homers and a 5:3:1 weighted average. Expected homers translates the player's actual output to an expected amount based on the underlying metrics. Let's say a player's homers translated into the following number of expected homers:
2019: 30 xHR in 600 PA
2018: 27 xHR in 500 PA
2017: 15 xHR in 200 PA
((5 x 30) + (3 x 27) + (1 x 15))/((5 x 600) + (3 x 500) + (1 x 200)) = .052 xHR/PA
If this player was projected for 650 PA this season, his homer expectation would have been
.052 x 650 = 34