MLB Betting: Sunday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Sunday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day: 4-0, +4.00 units
Overall: 31-9, +15.39 units

I just have to say that I never expected to be 31-9 two months into the baseball season. There is definitely a hot streak going, but I also think I have developed a system of finding value in the baseball lines by looking at alternatives.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Corbin Burnes vs. Caleb Smith

It is not often you get a pitcher like Corbin Burnes with value, but I believe we do here at a 7.5 strikeout prop, as he is coming off two starts with seven strikeouts in each.

Burnes is a heavy home favorite (-245) with a reasonable total of 8, and I have him at nine strikeouts Sunday.  I can see the Brewers letting him go a little deeper in the game as they should be working with a decent lead.

The Diamondbacks have tanked in the last 30 days, going 5-25 overall, and just 2-18 in their last 20. While the Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and 12-8 in their last 20.  The Brewers have won three in a row against the Dbacks, outscoring them 19-10. 

This is the way to bet a heavy favorite like Burnes but without having to pay the monster juice of -245.

BET: Milwaukee -1.5 runs 1st 5 innings (+105) for 1 RWBuck 
BET: Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (-135) for 1.25 RWBucks
BET: Milwaukee over 4.5 runs (-120) for 1.25 RWBucks

Rays at Rangers, 2:35 p.m.

Michael Wacha vs. Dane Dunning

I do not give out many straight moneyline picks, but I have been on the Rays most of May and now June.  If oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Rays, it makes sense to take the value. The Rays are a top-5 team in baseball while the Rangers are a bottom-5 team. There is no home-field advantage here. My numbers place the Rays as a -160 to -180 favorite.

The Rays are 22-3 in their last 25 road game and 17-4 straight up in their last 21, while the Rangers are  1-9 in their last 10.  

BET: Rays -126 to win the game for 1.25 RWBucks

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
AL FAAB Factor: AL Pickups of the Week
AL FAAB Factor: AL Pickups of the Week
MLB Betting: Sunday Best Bets
MLB Betting: Sunday Best Bets
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
Weekly Hitter Rankings: Mets Catching Up
Weekly Hitter Rankings: Mets Catching Up