This article is part of our MLB Betting series.
Previous article: 1-3, -2.00 RW Bucks
Season: 84-87-7, -8.51 RW Bucks
On the penultimate Friday night of the season, I'm honing in on a matchup in each league where I see some potential opportunities pertaining to the totals and to a particularly favorable matchup for one starting pitcher.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies 7:05pm ET
The Pick: Pirates Under 1.5 runs – first 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Under 9 runs (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Gibson has generally been good about limiting the damage all season with the exception of a handful of hiccups, and he held the Pirates to two earned runs over 6.2 innings his one previous time facing them Aug. 1. Pittsburgh also carries just a .237 average and .307 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month, and they're averaging just 2.0 runs per first five per road game. Meanwhile, Yajure was very effective at Triple-A Indianapolis this season and also blanked the Giants over five innings in the most recent of his two big-league starts this season. Neither bullpen has been anything special in September, but I'll go with the slightly higher total of nine runs to feel better about suggesting the Under.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers 7:10 pm ET
The Pick: 1st Half Moneyline (first 5 innings) -Royals (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Hernandez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Hernandez took some lumps from the Athletics last time out, but he's been very good overall in the second half with a 5-0 record, 1.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9 in the eight starts prior to that one. He also owns a 3-0 record, 2.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 0.5 HR/9 across 34.2 road innings. Mize has also been very effective overall, but he's had his share of unfavorable run-ins with the Royals and current KC bats own a collective .296/.369/.486 slash line against him that includes three homers over 81 career encounters. The Royals also sport a .272, .774 OPS and .329 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month, while the Tigers have a 27.1 percent strikeout rate and .287 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching at home in that same span.