This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Payne's YTD Record: 3-3
You'll have to go back two weeks to find my last piece in this section but I'll save you the trouble. I struck out on three Phillies hitters going yard in Coors but was able to hit on my other two wagers. The nice thing about those two wagers was it was Freddie Freeman total bases at +140 and the Padres/Sean Manaea -1.5 at +120. Let's see what looks good for today's action.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
It's always nice to have some early action on a Monday this is the first game of the slate. Looking at this, you've got two pitchers who have very different strikeout numbers to start the season. Greinke has probably been lucky to have a 2.86 ERA despite only recording six strikeouts in 22 innings. Meanwhile, Matz has probably been unlucky to start the season with a 6.11 ERA despite having 23 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. Matz has at least five strikeouts in all four starts and with Zach Greinke on the wrong side of 38, it's highly unlikely he maintains an ERA below 3.50 this season. The Royals also have the fourth-worst wOBA against lefties with a .275 wOBA.
MLB Best Bet for Cardinals-Royals: Cardinals Moneyline (-165)
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
One of the reasons I like this line is because it's a push if the Yankees can't get over the hump to five runs. The juice isn't crazy here and I would have thought this line would have been 4.5. Ross Stripling isn't exactly the second coming of Nolan Ryan and while he currently has an ERA of 3.60, his ERA was over five over the last two seasons. The Yankees have also been one of the better hitting teams against right-handed pitching with a .331 wOBA, the fourth-best in baseball.
MLB Best Bet for Yankees-Blue Jays: Yankees OVER 4 Runs (-115)
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez has gotten off to a fantastic start and has at least six strikeouts in three of his four starts. The Diamondbacks have struck out the most against right-handed pitching this season (26.4 percent), making this an excellent matchup for Lopez. He also pitched significantly better at home this season with an ERA two runs lower (4.34 on the road, 2.34 at home) and had 10.7 K/9IP rate in Miami last season as well. This is my favorite wager of the night and you can find alternate strikeout lines of 7+ (+220) and 8+ (+440).
MLB Best Bet for Marlins-Diamondbacks: Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)