This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 2-2 (-1.34 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 9-9-2 (-1.26 RW Bucks)
I'm honing in on a pair of night games for Wednesday's split slate, with a heavy focus on what I feel are favorable matchups for three of the teams in terms of the starting pitchers. Therefore, the theme of the day is primarily the Over for reasons that will be detailed in each game breakdown.
All odds provided courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, 7:40pm ET
Giolito is off to a typically solid start despite his team's offensive struggles, providing a 2.57 ERA, 14.1 K/9, 2.42 xFIP, 2.42 SIERA and career-low 30.0 percent hard-contact rate allowed. The veteran right-hander has been excellent in his first two road turns as well versus the Tigers and Twins, allowing just one earned run across eight innings while recording 15 strikeouts. The Cubs have had some strong offensive outputs at home, but they're averaging just 1.3 runs per game in the last three, including 0.7 per first five innings in that span.
Hendricks is a savvy veteran, but he's opened the season in uneven form. While he does have one seven-inning blanking of the Pirates and a 5.1-inning, one-run outing against the Brewers on Opening Day on his resume, he's also had a pair of six-run blowups against those same teams, helping lead to an ugly 5.73 xERA. Hendricks has been at his most effective at Wrigley, but he's also allowed current ChiSox bats a collective .288 average and .869 OPS across 117 career encounters.
MLB Best Bet #1 for White Sox-Cubs: White Sox -0.5 – first 5 innings (+102) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bet #2 for White Sox-Cubs: White Sox Over 3.5 Total Runs (-115) for 1 RW Buck
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies 8:40pm ET
Corbin's overall start to the season has been nightmarish to say the least, considering his 0-4 record, 8.69 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. However, it bears noting most of the crooked numbers are the result of two particularly poor outings in five starts, as he yielded a total of 13 of the 19 earned runs he's surrendered on the season to the Braves and Giants. Nevertheless, he has the potential for another blow-up Wednesday at Coors when he faces a team whose current hitters he's allowed a collective .343/.395/.491 slash line to in 113 career encounters. Colorado also comes in averaging the third-most runs per first 5 innings per home game (3.4) and is pounding southpaws at home for a .319 average and .385 wOBA thus far (105 PAs).
Gomber has much more aesthetically pleasing numbers than Corbin early on, as evidenced by a 1-2 mark, 3.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, a body of work that includes back-to-back quality starts coming into Wednesday. He also navigated Coors very well last season, but his one poor start this season came there against the Cubs (4.1 IN, 8 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB). He's also facing a Nationals squad that's hit well against lefties when traveling thus far, posting a very modest 13.3 percent strikeout rate and solid .274 average and .340 OBP in that split. Additionally, no team has averaged more runs per first five innings per road game than Washington's 3.7.