MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, May 20
There are couple of early games so make sure you get your lineups in season-long fantasy set early. I'm going to skip those two games and just take a look at the later games for tonight's slate. I'll gloss over last week's failures (0-3) and try to make up for it this week.
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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Best Bets
I was looking for a reason to take the Padres (Randy Vasquez) here and fade the Braves (Chris Sale), but the truth is I couldn't find one. Sale has been on fire over his last four starts – allowing only two earned runs over 25 innings, 0.72 ERA, 0.72 WHIP – and Vasquez has been awful this season at both Triple-A El Paso (8.40 ERA, 15 innings) and with the Padres (6.32 ERA, 15.2 innings). While the Padres don't strike out a lot against left-handed pitching (19.7 percent) they have the eighth-worst wOBA (.286) against that handedness. Looking at that stat, I'd also fade Sale's strikeout total tonight despite the fact I think the Braves win by multiple runs. Also factoring in is the Braves' .328 wOBA at home against right-handed pitching, which is the sixth-best mark in baseball.
MLB Picks for San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Chris Sale Under 5.5 Strikeouts +106 (FanDuel)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs -104 (BetRivers)
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets
Taj Bradley and Tanner Houck faced off last Wednesday and the two gave up just three earned runs in 10.2 innings (combined). After getting a good look at the pitchers so recently, I'd think we see one team jump on the other pitcher and there's always the possibility for both teams to start hot. Boston's .171 ISO against right-handed pitching ranks fourth in baseball and I'm also going to fade Taj Bradley as a result. I don't see him pitching deep into this game and I'd guess Boston gets to him as opposed to the Rays getting to Tanner Houck (Boston is a very slight favorite). Bradley had a 5.59 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP last season and while he should improve this season, he's not going to keep his early-season stats (albeit a small sample). I'd grab the under on the 6.5 strikeouts (-136) sooner than later as other sites have this at -160.
MLB Picks for Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
First 5 Innings Over 3.5 Runs -146 (FanDuel)
Taj Bradley Under 6.5 Strikeouts -136 (FanDuel)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The Dodgers are a big favorite at home tonight and it makes sense with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. Yamamoto has lived up to his billing this season with a 3.21 ERA and a matching 1.03 WHIP and has struck out over a batter per inning. However, in an extremely small sample size, Joc Pederson has gone 3-for-3 against him (all singles) when they faced off back on May 1. Pederson is hitting .317 this season and comes into the game hitting safely in both games over the weekend after getting three straight days of rest. If you've been reading this column you'll know I hate to take big negative odds, but this seems like a good spot to take Pederson considering all of the stats.
MLB Picks for Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Joc Pederson Over 0.5 Hits -160 (BetMGM)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs -104 (BetRivers)
- Chris Sale Under 5.5 Strikeouts +106 (FanDuel)
- F5 Over 3.5 Runs -146 (FanDuel)
- Taj Bradley Under 6.5 Strikeouts -136 (FanDuel)
- Joc Pederson Over 0.5 Hits -160 (BetMGM)
