Farm Futures: Southern League Roundup

Each Tuesday I will be profiling a standout performer from a recent game and then provide a snapshot of the success and failure of notable players in a specific league. This week, I analyze the best start of the year by Nationals right-handed pitching prospect Joe Ross (younger brother of Tyson Ross), followed by a look at what some notable hitters have been up to in the Southern League through three weeks of play.

Joe Ross, RHP, Double-A Harrisburg
Seven shutout innings on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts against Double-A Reading on Apr. 25

Everybody knows about Steven Souza at this point. He's already on pace to go at least 20/20 for the Rays in his first full season in the big leagues, and looks to be a bat that they can build around. The package the Nationals got back for Souza was actually all from the Padres, however, as it was a three-team exchange. Ross and Trea Turner went to Washington in the deal from San Diego, who received Wil Myers, among other pieces. While Jesse Hahn and Matt Wisler get more national attention among the pitchers San Diego shipped off this offseason, Ross should be similarly regarded as an eventual No. 3 starter in the big leagues.

He features a plus-plus fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s and can touch higher. While it isn't always used as a true bat-misser, the pitch features some heavy late sink that leads to primarily weak contact. However, when Ross wants to use the pitch in a two-strike count, he can reach back and get a little extra to finish at-bats, which he did to end the top half of the third inning Saturday.

His slider can also serve as an out pitch, especially against righties when he starts it on the outer third of the plate. Ross is still working on refining this pitch, but once you see him throw one of his good sliders, it's hard to forget that he has that pitch in his tool box. He finished the top of the fourth inning against Reading with a nasty slide piece that started as a strike and ended up two feet off the plate in the dirt, leading to a swinging third strike.

With a plus-plus heater and a slider that can flash as plus, he really only needs the changeup to be solid-average, and he certainly had it working Saturday. In his first strikeout of the fifth inning, he appeared to get a swinging strikeout on a dirty changeup that ended up at the catcher's feet.

In addition to a lively three-pitch arsenal, Ross also has a great 6-foot-4, 204-pound athletic body that allows for a smooth, repeatable delivery that should allow him to hold up over a full season in the big leagues.

While his numbers were excellent in his fourth start of the season, Ross actually threw a strike in a 2-2 count in the top of the second inning that ended up being called a ball, which lead to his first walk, so it should have only been a one-walk outing for the 21-year-old righty. Ross did not much care for that first baserunner of the game, so he immediately induced a double-play ball to face the minimum through two innings.

Almost all of the contact the Reading hitters were able to generate was weak, and Ross was never in danger of giving up a run Saturday.

It was his best outing of the season, so this kind of dominance should not be expected every time out, but I fully expect Ross to be at Triple-A by the All-Star break and in the Nationals' rotation sometime next year.

Minor League Roundup: Southern League Hitters

Byron Buxton, Double-A Chattanooga
.210/.279/.355, two HR, 3/4 in SB attempts through 62 at-bats

A .244 BABIP is the primary culprit to a slow start to the season for Buxton and I fully expect him to hit high gear in the very near future. He's still on pace to finish with close to 20 homers and 30 steals if he spends the entire season at Double-A, and with a hot month he could force his way to Triple-A. The idea of Buxton getting the call to the big leagues in enough time to be of much use in single-season leagues remains a long shot, as it was before the season started. The Twins simply are not competitive enough to justify rushing their top prospects at the cost of future control and savings.

Miguel Sano, Double-A Chattanooga
.173/.317/.383, three HR, 10 BB, 16 K through 52 at-bats.

Sano has a .182 BABIP, so any of his owners in dynasty leagues who are panicking need to settle down. This poor start is not counting against your fantasy team and like with Buxton, the only *now* implication is that his slow start may prevent him from forcing his way to the majors before the September. He's hitting for power and his 15.9 percent walk rate is the best he has posted in full-season ball. His 25.4 percent K-rate is also right in line with his previous norms, so this has to just be chalked up to bad luck in a small sample.

Tim Anderson, Double-A Birmingham
.319/.333/.375, three XBH, one BB, 17 K, 11/11 on SB attempts through 72 at-bats

Anderson leads the Southern League with 11 steals, and it's not even close. Jacob May and Mallex Smith are both tied for second with six. Anderson's lack of power and walks should not come as a surprise, as he has yet to really tap into his raw power in games as a professional, and he has just eight walks in 95 games dating back to the start last season. An investment in Anderson is an investment in how projectable his tools are, but it's nice to know that the floor is someone with the potential to steal 30-plus bases in a season at the big-league level.

Kyle Schwarber, Double-A Tennessee
.370/.483/.652, three HR, 11 BB, 13 K through 46 at-bats

Schwarber and Dan Vogelbach have formed my favorite middle-of-the-order combo in the minor leagues in the early going. They both just look the part of cleanup hitters: beefy with big heads and big sticks. Based on how aggressive the Cubs were with Addison Russell this season, I would not be surprised if Schwarber was brought up at some point this season to give the Cubs a much needed offensive threat behind the plate a few times per week.

Dan Vogelbach, Double-A Tennessee
.414/.521/.690, three HR, seven 2B, 13 BB, six K through 58 at-bats

Swaggy V has been named the offensive player of the week in the Southern League in back-to-back weeks, as he has been absolutely remarkable in every aspect with the bat in his hand. Not only does he have more walks than strikeouts, he has more doubles than strikeouts, which is truly absurd for a 22-year-old taking his first crack at Double-A. This is supposed to be a level that requires a learning curve. It's not supposed to be easy, but Vogelbach doesn't seem to care. Yes, his .429 BABIP is inflating his slash line, but even if it falls to .329, he'll still look like a premier 1B/DH prospect. The only drawback with Vogelbach is he needs a trade or the National League to adopt the DH to become useful in fantasy, assuming Anthony Rizzo stays healthy.

Jesse Winker, Double-A Pensacola
.237/.348/.373, four XBH, nine BB, 11 K through 59 at-bats

Winker has struggled at the plate now for almost 40 games (dating back to the end of last season) with Pensacola, so it's worth sniffing around to see if something is amiss. He has a .260 BABIP over that stretch, and Pensacola plays pretty fair for hitters and pitchers, so I'm inclined to view Winker as a solid buy-low option in dynasty leagues at the moment. Considering he is still walking and striking out at very favorable rates, it would appear to just be bad luck unless there is an injury we're unaware of.

Albert Almora, Double-A Tennessee
.297/.333/.344, three XBH, five BB, six K, 2/2 in SB attempts through 64 at-bats

If Almora carries top-50 name value in your dynasty league, I'd look to move him in a package right now (a one-for-one would draw too much attention to his flaws). He may be a competent centerfielder in the big leagues some day, but the offensive profile has a long way to go to catch up to his defense. I think he would be a prime candidate for the Cubs to move in a trade, but if they keep him as their long-term answer in center, he will likely end up batting eighth or even ninth behind the pitcher. In fact, if I could trade Almora for fellow Cubs outfield prospect Billy McKinney, I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

Orlando Arcia, Double-A Biloxi
.386/.456/.544, six XBH, seven BB, seven K, one steal through 57 at-bats

Arcia is handling himself quite well for a 20-year-old getting his first taste of the upper levels of the minor leagues. Other than power, Arcia has plus tools across the board, which leads to him landing higher on general prospect rankings than on fantasy rankings, considering we don't care how good his defense is as long as he can stick at the position. It's a little surprising that he has not attempted more than one steal in the early going considering the rate at which he is getting on base, but that should pick up as the season goes on.

D.J. Peterson, Double-A Jackson
.179/.242/.196, one XBH, 2/2 on SB attempts through 56 at-bats

Peterson has not brought the same loud production to Jackson that he displayed at High Desert in the first half of last season, and for good reason. While Jackson is a somewhat favorable place to hit, High Desert might be one of the three best places to hit in all the minors. Given the Mariners' long-term commitment to Kyle Seager, Peterson will likely end up getting his first shot in the majors at first base next season, where the bar to be useful in standard fantasy leagues might be higher than he is capable of clearing.

Rio Ruiz, Double-A Mississippi
.224/.316/.286, three XBH through 49 at-bats.

Mississippi is the toughest place to hit in the Southern League, and one of the toughest places to hit in all the minors, so don't fret about Ruiz's lack of power numbers in the early going. He is a prime buy-low candidate in deeper dynasty leagues.

Daniel Robertson, Double-A Montgomery
.234/.315/.328, four XBH, 0/2 on SB attempts through 64 at-bats

It's been a pretty rough start to the year for Robertson, who has a 26 percent K-rate and has yet to really do anything positive of note at the plate. Unfortunately, his .311 BABIP does not lend much optimism to the idea of drastic improvements coming to his slash line. Granted, it is very early in the season, but maybe the A's knew what they were doing when they moved him in the Ben Zobrist trade this offseason.

Brandon Drury, Double-A Mobile
.222/.254/.286, four 2B, three BB, five K through 63 at-bats.

Like Rio Ruiz, Drury is a prime buy-low candidate in deep dynasty leagues, as he has a tough hitting environment and a low BABIP (.237), two of the key factors that can lead to prospects being undervalued. I still like Drury more than Jake Lamb long term at the hot corner for the D-Backs, and he should be owned in all dynasty leagues where at least 150 prospects are rostered.

Gabriel Guerrero, Double-A Jackson
.211/.246/.316, four XBH, three BB, 18 K through 57 at-bats

Considering Guerrero is the nephew of Vladimir Guerrero, I really want him to be a great prospect and bring some of his uncle's talents back to the big-league stage. However, the early returns this season are starting to validate the notion that Guerrero was just posting deceivingly excellent numbers at the favorable environments supplied by the California League, and particularly High Desert. It's certainly too early to write off the 21-year-old outfielder, but I would no longer have him ranked as a top-100 prospect.

Jorge Polanco, Double-A Chattanooga
.270/.292/.460, three HR, two BB, seven K, 3/4 on SB attempts through 63 at-bats

Polanco seems like a poor man's Orlando Arcia, which makes his three home runs in 15 games all the more impressive, as power seemed to be his only weakness coming into the season. He is only 21 years old, but considering Danny Santana appears to be showing his true colors as a replacement-level player at best, Polanco needs to be considered the Twins' shortstop of the very near future.

Tyrone Taylor, Double-A Biloxi
.250/.316/.308, three XBH, five BB, five K through 52 at-bats

Taylor's approach at the plate has been excellent, but he has failed to do anything in the power or speed departments. He is a low-upside prospect who could become an everyday player with good defense and a good, but relatively empty, batting average.

Socrates Brito, Double-A Mobile
.273/.290/.379 - five XBH, two BB, nine SO, 1/3 in SB attempts through 66 at-bats

Brito has the potential to be a five-tool player, but his power and speed have yet to really show up this season. Mobile can suppress offense, but there is still not enough here, especially considering he turns 23 in September, for him to rank as a top-200 prospect in dynasty leagues.

Courtney Hawkins, Double-A Birmingham
.224/.268/.493, three HR, two 3B, five 2B, four BB, 26 K, 0/3 on SB attempts through 67 at-bats

While Hawkins, 21, is on pace to hit 19 home runs for the third season in a row, his approach is as shaky as ever in the early going. I had already lost faith in Hawkins making it as an everyday player last season, and nothing has changed so far in 2015.

Mallex Smith, Double-A Mississippi
.322/.344/.424, 6/6 on SB attempts through 59 at-bats

Smith is one of the fastest players in the minor leagues and stole 88 bags in 120 games last year between Low-A and High-A in the Padres' organization. At 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, he has more muscle than Dee Gordon, so with a compact approach he could continue to hit all the way up the ladder. Smith may only end up making it as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement, but Jarrod Dyson and Rajai Davis have been owned at some point in most leagues over the past year, so there is hope for Smith from a fantasy perspective.

Jacob May, Double-A Birmingham
.314/.342/.400, 6/9 on SB attempts through 70 at-bats

While he is not quite as fast as Mallex Smith, May is an accomplished base-stealer in his own right. He swiped 37 bags in 109 games at High-A last year, and his K-rates have always been very manageable. He's a pretty fringe fantasy prospect, but there will probably come a time when he offers short-term speed off the waiver wire.

Adam Walker, Double-A Chattanooga
.246/.267/.544, five HR, two BB, 25 K through 57 at-bats

Players like Walker are not worth rostering unless it is a very deep dynasty league, but he is the kind of player all owners should be aware of. His power is very real (he leads the Southern League with five home runs), but so are his contact issues. Most players with Walker's profile never make it as everyday players, but the fact that he has forced his way to Double-A means we need to keep tabs on him in case he can take measures to cut down on the strikeouts.

Kyle Waldrop, Double-A Pensacola
.204/.241/.333, two HR, two BB, 21 K through 54 at-bats

He is seen as a fringe prospect, but his power has the potential to be plus at the highest level, and he could occupy the strong side of a platoon in left field in the not-so-distant future.

Justin O'Conner, Double-A Montgomery
.161/.200/.321, three HR, two BB, 23 K through 56 at-bats

O'Conner's defense will allow him to be a starting catcher for the Rays in short order, and he has the power to be useable in fantasy, particularly in AL-only and two-catcher leagues. After all, Mike Zunino was universally drafted in AL-only leagues and he hit .199 with 22 homers last year. O'Conner could match or exceed that production in a few years over a full season.