This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: May 28th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 14-12, +.99 Units
OK, got a little lucky on one of my props in my last article as Cal Quantrill got yanked after just 46 not-terrible pitches, thus hitting his total outs under. I'll take it! Lets's try to keep the good fortune going.
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Yankees vs Angels: Best Betting Strategy and Key Stats
The Travelling Torpedo Bat Juggernaut that is the Yankees looks for the sweep as they face the Angels' ostensible ace, Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty has an excellent and thoroughly misleading 3.17 ERA, not at all backed by his 4.60 SIERA and 4.59 xERA. His K% has dipped from a career high 28% last season to just 20.7% this year, while the BB% has nearly doubled from 6% to 11.5%.
He went to Houston last year at the deadline last year, and he bumped up his slider usage from 16.8% in Toronto to 37.1%, and it became a huge weapon, providing 10.8 runs above average value as per Statcast in just 10 starts. He's still throwing it just as often in Anaheim, just not with the same effect as it's down from 88.3 MPH to 87 and has a barely positive 1.3 run value. His fastball is down 1 mph also.
Facing the Yankees with diminished stuff is not a great recipe for success. They have a 144 wRC+ overall vs. lefties, tops in MLB, though that's "only" 122 on the road vs. southpaws. Aaron Judge, of course, leads the way at an insane .444/.565/1.111, with 7 homers in just 46 PA's. But you can't just put him on base as Paul Goldschmidt has a .533 average and 334 wRC+ while Cody Bellinger checks in at .366 and 186 wRC+.
I get that the betting odds reflect all of this, I still just don't see how Kikuchi gets through this start.
Best Bets
Yusei Kikuchi Under 17.5 Outs recorded (-115 DraftKings)
Yusei Kikuchi 6+ Hits allowed (+110 DraftKings)
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Rockies at Cubs: Betting Insights and Pitcher Analysis
OK, I'm going to do something that can't possibly work; back a Rockies starting pitcher. On the road. Against a really good offense. No, I don't expect him to win, or even pitch particularly well. I'm just looking for the slightest bit of competence and not to get knocked out of the box super early.
Colorado will start Tanner Gordon. He's new to the rotation and pitching away from Coors, both of which help. He's started for the Rockies twice this season, going 6.1 IP vs. Detroit and 6 IP vs. the Yankees and surviving the two best teams in the AL with a 4.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. That's not hideous! He struck out 4 Tigers and 5 Yankees, mostly on account of just hanging in there long enough to get a few K's. Now the Cubs are not a high strikeout team, as they have a middling 20.5% K% at the Friendly Confines. Speaking of which, it looks like fairly neutral to negative (for offense) weather in Chicago tonight as its a 5 mph wind blowing in from left.
Again, I'm not banking on much, just a few K's from Gordon vs. a low market
Best Bet
Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets
- Yusei Kikuchi Under 17.5 Outs recorded (-115 DraftKings)
- Yusei Kikuchi 6+ Hits allowed (+110 DraftKings)
- Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
