This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 11th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 16-16, -1.45 units
Summer is officially here. How do we know that? Well aside from the obvious that its warm and sunny out and we get daylight until 9pm or so. Yes, its that time of year in MLB when offense starts to pick up. There's only one total on the board today under 8.5 (Braves at Brewers fwiw). Let's take a look at the card and try to get back in the green today!
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Rangers at Twins: Best Betting Insights and Pitcher Analysis
The Twins currently find themselves in the final Wild Card slot, while the Rangers rank 12th in the AL with a disappointing 32-35 record. Still they remain very much in contention as they sit just 3.5 games behind the Twins and 4.5 out in the AL West. They just have not gotten it going offensively in 2025 as they sit near the bottom of the league with just a 3.5 runs/game average and 82 wRC+.
There are some signs of life lately, however. They erupted for 16 runs vs. the Twins on Tuesday night. Their best hitter, Corey Seager, remains in a funk as he has just 4 hits in 43 PA's since returning from the IL on May 28th. But his middle infield partner Marcus Semien has finally found his stoke, slashing .444/.524/.778 since then with 3 homers. OF Evan Carter just returned from yet another IL stint, but unlike Seager he came back mashing. He's 7 of 18 with 2 homers in the 6 games since he's back.
The Twins, for their par,t have hit well lately, especially in a spot like this. They have an excellent 134 wRC+ at home vs. righties over the past month. Matt Wallner just came back from an extended IL stint, and he's done Matt Wallner things. He has 4 homers in just 8 games and 34 PA's with a thrombolic 97.8 average EV. That, of course, comes with a ton of swing and miss, 18% SwStr% since his return. Willi Castro, he of multi-position Fantasy eligibility, remains hot lately as well. I missed on a total bases prop on him last week, but it was a rare game lately that he did not do much as he has a .494 wOBA over the past 2 weeks with 4 homers.
Neither of these two slowly percolating offenses faces a particularly daunting starting pitcher. Jack Leiter of the Rangers and David Festa of the Twins are super promising young arms that have yet to find much consistency at the MLB level. Leiter's surface stats look decent, with a 3.48 ERA/1.16 WHIP combo. But his 19.7% K% vs. 11.3% BB% and 4.72 suggest that's a bit of a mirage. His BABIP of .221 has helped enormously. He has pitched well lately, going at least 5 IP in each of his last 5 starts and yielding no more than 3 runs in any of them.
Festa has been just rough overall, with a 5.40 ERA and 1.5 WHIP in 4 starts at the major league level. His 28% K% stands out, but he's yielding 91.1 EV on the contact batters do make, with a 13.3% Barrel%. It's a relatively small sample as he's only tossed 16.2 major league innings, and its led to an odd discrepancy between his contact-dependent xERA (an ugly 6.23) and SIERA of 3.48. Also, the Twins famously do not trust Festa to go through a lineup a 3rd time as he's faced either 18 or 19 hitters in each of his 4 starts.
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MLB Best Bets for Rangers Vs. Twins
- Over 8.5 Total (BetMGM +100)
- ½ unit Matt Wallner 1+ Home runs (+360 DraftKings
- ½ unit Marcus Semien 2+ Total Bases (+135 DraftKings)
- ½ unit Wyatt Langford 2+ Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)
