Pitching 3D: Pitchers 51-60

Written by

Updated on February 25, 2017 6:43PM EST

We're not done.

The last episode finished with four players from the group of 30-point pitchers, a 12-player cohort that is characterized by pitchers who carry relatively extreme strengths and weaknesses.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40
Rating DT SP 41-50

It's just a footnote on the rankings, but it is interesting that only one of the 20 previously-ranked pitchers received an "8" in the strikeouts category, and in fact only three others scored as many as 7 points in the subject, yet today's set leads off with three different pitchers who each scores 7-to-8 points for projected K rate. To descend to this level, however, these pitchers all carry significant warts that are weighing down their respective values.

Blake Snell
NFBC ADP: 79
DT Rank: 51

K	8 of 10
ERA	4 of 6
WHIP	2 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	6 of 8
Mechanics	3 of 7
TOTAL	30 of 50

We're not done.

The last episode finished with four players from the group of 30-point pitchers, a 12-player cohort that is characterized by pitchers who carry relatively extreme strengths and weaknesses.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40
Rating DT SP 41-50

K	8 of 10
ERA	4 of 6
WHIP	2 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	6 of 8
Mechanics	3 of 7
TOTAL	30 of 50

Blake Snell needs to simplify things, from his mechanics to his repertoire, so that he can make the most of his dynamite stuff while he masters the fundamentals of pitching. Starting with the stuff, Snell has a four-pitch mix that features two distinct breaking balls, a curveball and a slider. The slider was roped last season (.294 average, .529 slugging against) in his 89 innings of big league ball. The curve, however, was unhittable. Opposing batters went just 2-for-46 on at-bats that ended on Snell's curveball, with 27 Ks, a single and a double for a .044 average and .022 ISO. I think that he should ditch the slider and go with the curveball exclusively, simplifying the approach of a pitcher who has struggled with walks his entire professional career.

The mechanics are another issue, but they underlie his high walk rates. Snell has a lot of lateral imbalance in his delivery, carves an inefficient path of momentum and tilts into release point, often falling off the mound to the third-base side during his follow-through. Snell essentially carves an S-shaped pattern that is directed toward the left-hand batter's box during his stride, and the redirects the curve toward the right-hand batter's box from foot strike through release point. The pattern is difficult to repeat and impact Snell's pitch command, but if he can straighten things out then he could approach his lofty ceiling.

The 8 points in strikeouts is an optimistic score, considering that he had a frequency of 24.4 percent strikeouts last season (though 9.9 K/9). However, in the minors Snell struck out 33.3 percent of the 441 batters that he faced at the Triple-A level over a two-year stretch. I'm holding out for the upside, but bear in mind that the next time that shows command of the strike zone will be his first.

Robbie Ray
NFBC ADP: 64
DT Rank: 52

K	7
ERA	3
WHIP	2
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

Ray is volatility personified. If you catch him on the right day, Ray has a nearly 6-point delivery and hits his spots, allowing his above-average stuff and a deep release point to pile up strikeouts. Catch him on the wrong day, and you'd think that Ray couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, with a constant struggle to repeat his release point. The 7 points for Ray in the K category (23-25 percent K rate) underscores my feeling that some of 2016's sudden strikeout spike was for real, but that he is also due for some personal regression after jumping from a career K rate of 20.3 percent to the 28.1 percent frequency of 2016.

His strikeouts were even more impressive on a per-inning basis (11.3 K/9) last season, but the 4.08 pitches that he threw per batter was tied for second in the National League, and given the high WHIP he was working hard to get through innings. All of his velocities shot up in 2016, and his pitches got faster as the season progressed - all of his pitches gained 1-2 ticks when compared to 2015. At his best, Ray has solid balance and a great path of momentum to funnel his powerful delivery, providing a glimpse of a potential breakout if he can master his own motion.

Michael Pineda
NFBC ADP: 63
DT Rank: 53

K	8
ERA	2
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

Pineda just keeps right on defying the advanced metrics. FIP likes him (3.58 from 2015-16), as the right-hander has posted excellent rates of strikeouts and walks over the past couple seasons, but he continues to get battered (9.6 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.60 ERA over the same stretch). I know that it's tempting to get excited when we see a right-hander in pinstripes who throws a 95-mph cutter more than half the time, but Pineda's pet pitch has been rocked, including a .347 batting average and a .629 slug in at-bats that ended on the pitch. The walk rate spiked last season, rising from 3.1 percent all the way up to 7.0 percent, and though his 10.4 K/9 led the American League, the frequency of 27.4 percent was less impressive (though it did gain four percentage points over any other season). Sometimes high BABiPs don't regress to league norms, because sometimes the pitcher just gives up a ton of hard line drives. Michael Pineda, meet "sometimes."

Gio Gonzalez
NFBC ADP: 91
DT Rank: 54

K	8
ERA	3
WHIP	2
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	6
TOTAL	30

Gio has really fallen out of favor with the fantasy community, but last season's 4.29 ERA was the only mark of his career above 3.80 in a full season. His peripherals were pretty much the same - he actually gave up fewer hits and walks in 2016 than in '15. The exception was a home run rate that spiked to 1.0 HR/9, a roughly league-average rate that was more than double the previous season, as Gonzalez had established a no-fly zone for bombers over the previous several seasons. Don't count on more than 175 innings, and pessimists will (justifiably) point to the fact that Gio's ERA has increased in each of the past four seasons, in addition to the reality that he is typically a six-inning pitcher and no more, the type that will make 32 starts yet still fall short of 200 frames each season. I guess I'm a Gio apologist, partly because I think he has an awesome delivery, but even being practical I see a lot of profit potential in his current price point.

Luke Weaver
NFBC ADP: 80
DT Rank: 55

K	7
ERA	3
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	4
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

Weaver's not currently penciled into the Cardinals rotation, a factor which dings his projected innings count, but the club just lost phenom Alex Reyes for the season and have a couple of players near the back-end of the rotation (Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha) who are question marks in terms of projected workload, opening the opportunity for Weaver to get back into the St. Louis rotation. Weaver's strikeouts are likely an asset, and though he got hit around in a small sample of major league action, he also owned the minors in the ERA department (1.78 ERA in 197.2 innings). Weaver has a solid delivery and throws a grip of different pitches, though he lacks the radar-gun readings to vault him up prospect lists and 84 percent of his offerings registered as either a fastball or changeup in the majors last season. I think that opportunity is the only thing standing between Weaver and mixed-league relevance.

Francisco Liriano
NFBC ADP: 83
DT Rank: 56

K	7
ERA	4
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	3
TOTAL	30

Liriano is frustrating to watch, as any given day he could be burying sliders for double-digit strikeouts or throwing 50-footers that pile on the free passes. At the root of his command issues is an unstable delivery that he struggles to repeat in terms of both positioning and timing. Complicating the matter is that Liriano has been known to switch sides of the rubber for his setup depending upon the handedness of the opposing batter, adding yet another wrinkle to the equation of commanding baseballs. His relatively-high K rate keeps him interesting, but the pre-surgery phenom days have disappeared into the rearview mirror, and the risk in his deployment has less to do with opponents and is more about Liriano himself.

Ian Kennedy
NFBC ADP: 73
DT Rank: 57

K	6
ERA	3
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

Kennedy's a rather mundane pitcher from a fantasy perspective, likely to hurt the ratios a touch in exchange for providing innings and counting stats. I dig his delivery, a simple, consistent motion that helps him to get the most out of his stuff, but the upside is limited due to an arsenal that is otherwise pedestrian. Kennedy carries more value in deep and mono leagues, where innings are at more of a premium due to the paucity of playable options on the waiver wire, and where meeting inning thresholds can be a more difficult task.

Jerad Eickhoff
NFBC ADP: 58
DT Rank: 58

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	4
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	30

Eickhoff is one of those odd ducks at this point in the player pool who happens to have a DT rank that matches his NFBC ADP. He performed pretty well in his first full season at the highest level, and though his ratios are likely to stay in the mediocre range and his physical profile of stuff and mechanics lacks any blatant strengths, there aren't many weaknesses, either. An exceptionally low walk rate indicates that he might be able to make improvements in the WHIP category, but his willingness to fill up the strike zone may also be related to his high rates of hits and homers allowed, so don't be surprised by a push-pull between his ERA and WHIP.

With our dozen 30-point players now out of the way, let's look at the players at the top of the 29-point pool.

Tyler Glasnow
NFBC ADP: 96
DT Rank: 59

K	7
ERA	4
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	3
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	29

Glasnow is a fascinating case from a mechanical perspective. At times, he has one of the longest strides in the pros, with an extension so deep that he releases the ball close to where the dirt of the mound meets the grass. Some coaches don't like to see a long stride, despite the advantages inherent in the technique, such as higher perceived velocity he later break on pitches. The Pirates have been trying to shorten him up during the past couple of years, resulting in widely disparate timing patterns and the high walk rates that naturally follow. One hopes that he can find a repeatable release point that takes advantage of his natural skills, and that working with Ray Searage will help Glasnow to find his ideal delivery. He was basically a two-pitcher pitcher last season, relying on a fastball that averaged 93.9 mph along with a steep curveball (just 2.5 percent of his pitches were labeled as changeups by Brooks baseball). Between his delivery and his arsenal, Glasnow has a pretty full developmental agenda in order to reach ceiling, and though I don't expect that he'll make all of the necessary adjustments this season, the theoretical ceiling is high enough that he will provide fantasy benefits even as he irons out the wrinkles.

Joe Ross
NFBC ADP: 62
DT Rank: 60

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	3
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	29

Ross has a killer slider, but he breaks all the rules regarding safe pitch-type development by throwing the slide close to 40 percent of the time. It's not too surprising, given that his brother Tyson utilizes a similar recipe that is heavily concentrated in sliders, and the two hurlers have several mechanical similarities, as well. Comping a player to his siblings is often waved away as lazy analysis, but in this case the comp rings true. Joe Ross is basically a two-pitch guy, so until he develops a functional offspeed pitch (the few changeups he threw last year were hammered) he will lack an effective weapon against platoon bats and will have be limited in keeping hitters on their toes.

Here are my top-60 starting pitchers:

RANK	PLAYER	POINTS
1	Clayton Kershaw	48
2	Max Scherzer	46
3	Madison Bumgarner	45
4	Corey Kluber	45
5	Noah Syndergaard	43
6	Yu Darvish	43
7	Chris Sale	42
8	David Price	42
9	Jake Arrieta	42
10	Jon Lester	40
11	Stephen Strasburg	39
12	Chris Archer	38
13	Cole Hamels	38
14	Justin Verlander	38
15	Johnny Cueto	38
16	Carlos Carrasco	36
17	Zack Greinke	35
18	Carlos Martinez	35
19	Julio Teheran	34
20	Jacob deGrom	34
21	Masahiro Tanaka	34
22	Jose Quintana	34
23	Gerrit Cole	33
24	Danny Salazar	33
25	Felix Hernandez	33
26	Rich Hill	33
27	Kenta Maeda	33
28	Lance McCullers	33
29	Julio Urias	33
30	Jameson Taillon	33
31	Kyle Hendricks	32
32	Aaron Sanchez	32
33	Kevin Gausman	32
34	Sean Manaea	32
35	Adam Wainwright	32
36	Carlos Rodon	32
37	Jeff Samardzija	32
38	Jon Gray	32
39	Danny Duffy	31
40	Michael Fulmer	31
41	Vincent Velasquez	31
42	Dallas Keuchel	31
43	John Lackey	31
44	Marcus Stroman	31
45	Jake Odorizzi	31
46	Rick Porcello	31
47	Matt Harvey	30
48	Sonny Gray	30
49	Steven Matz	30
50	Taijuan Walker	30
51	Blake Snell	30
52	Robbie Ray	30
53	Michael Pineda	30
54	Gio Gonzalez	30
55	Luke Weaver	30
56	Francisco Liriano	30
57	Ian Kennedy	30
58	Jerad Eickhoff	30
59	Tyler Glasnow	29
60	Joe Ross	29