Lance Lynn News

Lance Lynn

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

Texas Rangers

2019 Stats

W-L

14-9

ERA

3.85

WHIP

1.25

197

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2019 Fantasy Outlook

The hope for Lynn in 2018 was that his command would come back and allow him to keep the ball in the yard and lower his ERA. Command is typically the last piece of the puzzle to return for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery, and we saw that from Lynn in 2017 as he allowed too many homers. He reduced his homers in 2018, but Lynn walked 11% of the batters he faced which offset his gains in home-run suppression and helped push his ERA up nearly to where his 2017 FIP was. The larger jump was a 120-point spike in his BABIP, so increased hits plus increased walks led to increased runs allowed. His numbers with the Yankees, in a small sample size, were much better than what he did with the Twins, and Lynn credited a change in mound positioning for much of his late success. He will slot in near the top of the Rangers' rotation after signing a three-year, $30 million contract in December. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#515

ADP

Overall

Starting Pitcher

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League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'5"

Weight 275

DOB 5/12/1987

Born Marion, IN

College Mississippi

Drafted 2008 STL

Fans 10 in loss to White Sox

PTexas Rangers

August 24, 2019

Lynn (14-9) took the loss Friday as the Rangers were downed 8-3 by the White Sox. He struck out 10 but coughed up seven runs on 11 hits and two walks over 5.2 innings.

ANALYSIS
The right-hander generated a whopping 24 swinging strikes among his 109 pitches (75 total strikes), but when Chicago did get wood on the ball it found a hole -- the 11 hits Lynn surrendered consisted of seven singles and four doubles. He'll carry a 3.85 ERA and 197:48 K:BB through 170.2 innings into his next start Thursday, at home against the Mariners.

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2017

-19%

BAA vs RHP

2019

-20%

BAA vs RHP

2018

-20%

BAA vs RHP

2017

-17%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2017vs Left	.273	1073	185	127	255	57	6	28
Since 2017vs Right	.221	1123	326	75	225	33	9	28
2019vs Left	.279	380	78	32	96	23	3	5
2019vs Right	.222	340	119	16	70	14	2	10
2018vs Left	.299	309	49	42	79	18	1	6
2018vs Right	.239	391	112	34	84	14	2	8
2017vs Left	.245	384	58	53	80	16	2	17
2017vs Right	.203	392	95	25	71	5	5	10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2017

-21%

ERA at Home

2019

-9%

ERA on Road

2018

-40%

ERA at Home

2017

-24%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2017Home	3.51	1.32	251.1	20	7	0	8.6	3.5	0.7
Since 2017Away	4.43	1.33	262.1	15	20	0	9.3	3.6	1.2
2019Home	4.03	1.28	82.2	9	1	0	9.4	2.3	0.7
2019Away	3.68	1.23	88.0	5	8	0	11.4	2.8	0.9
2018Home	3.59	1.53	80.1	5	3	0	9.5	4.7	0.4
2018Away	6.01	1.52	76.1	5	7	0	9.0	4.0	1.2
2017Home	2.95	1.17	88.1	6	3	0	6.9	3.5	1.0
2017Away	3.86	1.29	98.0	5	5	0	7.8	4.0	1.6
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Stat Review

How does Lance Lynn compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.10

K/9

10.4

BB/9

2.5

HR/9

0.8

Fastball

94.1 mph

ERA

3.85

WHIP

1.25

BABIP

.347

GB/FB

1.31

Left On Base

72.0%

Exit Velocity

87.4 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.1%

Spin Rate

2411 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

33.1%

Swinging Strike

12.6%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2010

While Lynn managed to outperform his peripherals for most of the season (4.82 FIP, 4.75 xFIP), the regression monster finally caught up to him late. The right-hander turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 29 starts, but limped to the finish line with a 9.20 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14:10 K:BB over his final four outings. Lynn's first season back from Tommy John surgery has to be considered a success regardless, although he's behind the times in a sense; the league is moving away from the (non-blistering) fastball, and Lynn threw his low-90s fastball 81 percent of the time last season. The lack of faith in his breaking and offspeed pitches puts Lynn in a tough spot in today's game, with so many hitters sitting dead-red on fastballs. Lynn, who signed with the Twins in March, will likely be overvalued in some circles as owners chase last season's ratios. Things could get significantly worse.

Because he was slated to miss the season rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Lynn was out of the fantasy baseball conversation for 2016. Fortunately for the Cardinals and fantasy owners alike, the procedure was a success and Lynn is expected to return to action in 2017. Although it may take a few outings for him to hit his previous stride, as he'll have been away from the majors for over a year, Lynn will look to return to his 2014 and 2015 form. Lynn threw 6.2 innings across three rehab starts in the minors at the latter end of 2016. Although it was a minuscule sample size against subpar competition at High-A Palm Beach and Double-A Springfield, the outings were encouraging nonetheless as he recorded seven strikeouts and allowed just one earned run without surrendering a single walk. Lynn is expected to begin 2017 as a fixture in the St. Louis rotation again and could be a sneaky pick late in fantasy drafts.

Lynn turned in a very good 2015 but began to fade in the second half on his way to posting a 3.03 ERA in 175.1 innings. It was discovered early in the offseason that Lynn had pitched through pain for much of the season following his short DL stint in June with a forearm strain. That discovery led to successful Tommy John surgery which means Lynn will miss the entire 2016 season, obviously making him irrelevant in redraft leagues. If Lynn can return with the velocity and strikeout ability he displayed prior to surgery he should be a good bet to bounce back nicely in his age-30 season. The success rates for Tommy John surgeries are incredibly high now and there's no reason to think Lynn won't be a solid fantasy asset when he does return in 2017.

Lynn delivered his best season as a pro in 2014, going 15-10 with a terrific 2.74 ERA while posting his second consecutive season with over 200 innings. While his xFIP of 3.81 confirms what most already know, that he wasn't quite as good as the low ERA might indicate, Lynn still is a quality fantasy arm who's even more valuable in real life. Consistent middle-of-the-rotation innings eaters are not easy to find, and he's been just that for the Cardinals and is still only 27 years old. While his numbers may not be all that exciting, he should still deliver quality numbers in 2015 for his fantasy owners and likely at a very reasonable cost. His ERA may come up from 2014 but, locked into the number three spot in the rotation on what should be an improved Cardinals team, so should his win total.

Lynn was inconsistent again in 2013, but still managed to put up very good numbers for the Cardinals by season's end. The 26-year-old broke 200 innings for the first time in his career and won 15 games while posting a 3.66 xFIP and striking out 198 batters. Lynn gave up more flyballs last season, but fewer of them led to home runs as his HR/FB mark fell from 10.4% in 2012 to 7.4% last season. He still is just entering his prime and should only improve in 2014. Expect Lynn to work the middle of the rotation for the Cardinals in 2014.

Lynn was one of the bigger surprises stories in baseball last season, filling in admirably for Chris Carpenter and making 29 starts one season after holding a relief role for the Cardinals down the stretch. On a monthly basis, Lynn's performance was uneven and some owners panicked when he struggled in August (6.66 ERA, 1.91 WHIP in seven appearances), but he rallied in September to post a 34:7 K:BB, 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his final eight appearances. Despite racking up 180 strikeouts in 176 frames last season, Lynn's hold on a rotation spot is surprisingly weak given the Cards' arsenal of quality arms. Ultimately, Lynn appears to be a good bet to open the year as a stater, but he will need to continue to pitch well in order to keep his spot for all of 2013.

It's not often you see a rookie get placed on the 60-day DL in August yet still pitch in the World Series, but a strained oblique muscle ended Lynn's strong rookie campaign (at least the regular season part) on Aug. 9. A starter throughout his minor league career, Lynn was called up in June for a couple of spot starts while Kyle McClellan was on the DL, but stuck around as a reliever the rest of the way. He excelled in his new role with a 2.22 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, and a 32:8 K:BB ratio in 24.1 innings. If the Cardinals need him in a pinch, he can probably go five innings, but it looks like his short-term role is as a reliever.

Lynn has risen through the Cardinals' system very quickly. The 2008 draft pick out of Ole Miss got better as the season went along (5-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 11 second-half starts for Double-A Springfield). His walk rate is nothing special, and his strikeout rate in Springfield was a bit lower than one might expect, but Lynn is very polished and could find himself making spot starts for the Cards as early as this summer.

More Fantasy News

Walks five in shaky outing

PTexas Rangers

August 18, 2019

Lynn allowed three runs on four hits and five walks over five frames Sunday, striking out three batters in the loss to the Twins. He did not factor in the decision.