Lance Lynn News

Lance Lynn

33-Year-Old PitcherSP

Texas Rangers

2020 Stats

W-L

2-0

ERA

1.16

WHIP

0.94

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2020 Fantasy Outlook

Lynn's average fastball velocity increased for the third straight season. In addition, for the second year in a row he defied the odds, being quite stingy with the homers, especially since he worked most of the time in some of the friendliest power venues in the league. Lynn averaged a career best 94.6 mph on his four-seamer, using it and his 89-mph cutter more while throwing his sinker less. The result was a career-high 21.4 K-BB%, fueled by a career-low 6.7 BB%. Despite quality underlying metrics, Lynn will be hard-pressed to maintain the full extent of his 2019 gains. However, early indications are the new Globe Life Field will be more pitcher friendly than Globe Life Park, so the landing should be soft. Despite missing 2016 after Tommy John surgery, Lynn's 221 starts since 2012 are the 19th most in MLB. Lynn's ceiling is limited, but he provides a solid foundation, stabilizing any fantasy rotation. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#117

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

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League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'5"

Weight 250

DOB 5/12/1987

Born Marion, IN

College Mississippi

Drafted 2008 STL

Fans six in win

PTexas Rangers

August 9, 2020

Lynn (2-0) allowed two runs on four hits and three walks across five innings Sunday, striking out six batters and earning the win over the Angels.

ANALYSIS
Lynn cruised through four shutout innings before coughing up a two-run shot to Tommy La Stella in the fifth frame. The veteran has allowed two or fewer runs in all four starts this season, sporting a 1.16 ERA through 23.1 innings. He'll get a tough road matchup against the Rockies on Saturday.

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Pitching Stats

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2020

2019

2018

2017

2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

107

Last 10 Games

107

Last 5 Games

107

How many pitches does Lance Lynn generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Lance Lynn generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2018

-18%

BAA vs RHP

2020

-62%

BAA vs RHP

2019

-18%

BAA vs RHP

2018

-20%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2018vs Left	.272	819	163	88	197	45	4	13
Since 2018vs Right	.222	846	274	59	171	31	5	24
2020vs Left	.170	52	17	5	8	2	0	1
2020vs Right	.065	38	13	7	2	0	0	1
2019vs Left	.267	458	97	41	110	25	3	6
2019vs Right	.219	417	149	18	85	17	3	15
2018vs Left	.299	309	49	42	79	18	1	6
2018vs Right	.239	391	112	34	84	14	2	8
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2018

-28%

ERA at Home

2020

-25%

ERA at Home

2019

-9%

ERA at Home

2018

-40%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2018Home	3.32	1.30	200.1	17	4	0	9.7	3.5	0.5
Since 2018Away	4.64	1.35	188.0	11	17	0	10.6	3.3	1.2
2020Home	1.06	0.94	17.0	2	0	0	12.2	4.8	0.5
2020Away	1.42	0.95	6.1	0	0	0	9.9	4.3	1.4
2019Home	3.50	1.18	103.0	10	1	0	9.4	2.4	0.6
2019Away	3.84	1.25	105.1	6	10	0	11.8	2.7	1.2
2018Home	3.59	1.53	80.1	5	3	0	9.5	4.7	0.4
2018Away	6.01	1.52	76.1	5	7	0	9.0	4.0	1.2
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Lance Lynn compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.50

K/9

11.6

BB/9

4.6

HR/9

0.8

Fastball

93.8 mph

ERA

1.16

WHIP

0.94

BABIP

.183

GB/FB

0.60

Left On Base

99.0%

Exit Velocity

80.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

2.5%

Spin Rate

2469 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

16.5%

Swinging Strike

12.2%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2010

The hope for Lynn in 2018 was that his command would come back and allow him to keep the ball in the yard and lower his ERA. Command is typically the last piece of the puzzle to return for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery, and we saw that from Lynn in 2017 as he allowed too many homers. He reduced his homers in 2018, but Lynn walked 11% of the batters he faced which offset his gains in home-run suppression and helped push his ERA up nearly to where his 2017 FIP was. The larger jump was a 120-point spike in his BABIP, so increased hits plus increased walks led to increased runs allowed. His numbers with the Yankees, in a small sample size, were much better than what he did with the Twins, and Lynn credited a change in mound positioning for much of his late success. He will slot in near the top of the Rangers' rotation after signing a three-year, $30 million contract in December.

While Lynn managed to outperform his peripherals for most of the season (4.82 FIP, 4.75 xFIP), the regression monster finally caught up to him late. The right-hander turned in a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 29 starts, but limped to the finish line with a 9.20 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14:10 K:BB over his final four outings. Lynn's first season back from Tommy John surgery has to be considered a success regardless, although he's behind the times in a sense; the league is moving away from the (non-blistering) fastball, and Lynn threw his low-90s fastball 81 percent of the time last season. The lack of faith in his breaking and offspeed pitches puts Lynn in a tough spot in today's game, with so many hitters sitting dead-red on fastballs. Lynn, who signed with the Twins in March, will likely be overvalued in some circles as owners chase last season's ratios. Things could get significantly worse.

Because he was slated to miss the season rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Lynn was out of the fantasy baseball conversation for 2016. Fortunately for the Cardinals and fantasy owners alike, the procedure was a success and Lynn is expected to return to action in 2017. Although it may take a few outings for him to hit his previous stride, as he'll have been away from the majors for over a year, Lynn will look to return to his 2014 and 2015 form. Lynn threw 6.2 innings across three rehab starts in the minors at the latter end of 2016. Although it was a minuscule sample size against subpar competition at High-A Palm Beach and Double-A Springfield, the outings were encouraging nonetheless as he recorded seven strikeouts and allowed just one earned run without surrendering a single walk. Lynn is expected to begin 2017 as a fixture in the St. Louis rotation again and could be a sneaky pick late in fantasy drafts.

Lynn turned in a very good 2015 but began to fade in the second half on his way to posting a 3.03 ERA in 175.1 innings. It was discovered early in the offseason that Lynn had pitched through pain for much of the season following his short DL stint in June with a forearm strain. That discovery led to successful Tommy John surgery which means Lynn will miss the entire 2016 season, obviously making him irrelevant in redraft leagues. If Lynn can return with the velocity and strikeout ability he displayed prior to surgery he should be a good bet to bounce back nicely in his age-30 season. The success rates for Tommy John surgeries are incredibly high now and there's no reason to think Lynn won't be a solid fantasy asset when he does return in 2017.

Lynn delivered his best season as a pro in 2014, going 15-10 with a terrific 2.74 ERA while posting his second consecutive season with over 200 innings. While his xFIP of 3.81 confirms what most already know, that he wasn't quite as good as the low ERA might indicate, Lynn still is a quality fantasy arm who's even more valuable in real life. Consistent middle-of-the-rotation innings eaters are not easy to find, and he's been just that for the Cardinals and is still only 27 years old. While his numbers may not be all that exciting, he should still deliver quality numbers in 2015 for his fantasy owners and likely at a very reasonable cost. His ERA may come up from 2014 but, locked into the number three spot in the rotation on what should be an improved Cardinals team, so should his win total.

Lynn was inconsistent again in 2013, but still managed to put up very good numbers for the Cardinals by season's end. The 26-year-old broke 200 innings for the first time in his career and won 15 games while posting a 3.66 xFIP and striking out 198 batters. Lynn gave up more flyballs last season, but fewer of them led to home runs as his HR/FB mark fell from 10.4% in 2012 to 7.4% last season. He still is just entering his prime and should only improve in 2014. Expect Lynn to work the middle of the rotation for the Cardinals in 2014.

Lynn was one of the bigger surprises stories in baseball last season, filling in admirably for Chris Carpenter and making 29 starts one season after holding a relief role for the Cardinals down the stretch. On a monthly basis, Lynn's performance was uneven and some owners panicked when he struggled in August (6.66 ERA, 1.91 WHIP in seven appearances), but he rallied in September to post a 34:7 K:BB, 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his final eight appearances. Despite racking up 180 strikeouts in 176 frames last season, Lynn's hold on a rotation spot is surprisingly weak given the Cards' arsenal of quality arms. Ultimately, Lynn appears to be a good bet to open the year as a stater, but he will need to continue to pitch well in order to keep his spot for all of 2013.

It's not often you see a rookie get placed on the 60-day DL in August yet still pitch in the World Series, but a strained oblique muscle ended Lynn's strong rookie campaign (at least the regular season part) on Aug. 9. A starter throughout his minor league career, Lynn was called up in June for a couple of spot starts while Kyle McClellan was on the DL, but stuck around as a reliever the rest of the way. He excelled in his new role with a 2.22 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, and a 32:8 K:BB ratio in 24.1 innings. If the Cardinals need him in a pinch, he can probably go five innings, but it looks like his short-term role is as a reliever.

Lynn has risen through the Cardinals' system very quickly. The 2008 draft pick out of Ole Miss got better as the season went along (5-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 11 second-half starts for Double-A Springfield). His walk rate is nothing special, and his strikeout rate in Springfield was a bit lower than one might expect, but Lynn is very polished and could find himself making spot starts for the Cards as early as this summer.

More Fantasy News

Strong in another no-decision

PTexas Rangers

August 4, 2020

Lynn allowed one run on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in 6.1 innings versus the Athletics on Tuesday. He did not factor in the decision.