Steven Matz
Steven Matz
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Mets
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Matz exceeded the limited expectations set by his shaky health history, establishing career highs in starts and innings after offseason elbow surgery. The lefty kicked his K/9 back toward 9.0 and thrived in his home starts (3.59 ERA). Unfortunately, he endured another harmful HR/9 and posted a career-worst BB/9, leading the ERA estimators to paint a less rosy picture. The lefty dealt with a flexor pronator sprain in his left elbow in August but rebounded with a 2.51 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 32.1 September innings. In the end, he had a 10.4 K/9 in the second half. Matz worked to establish a repeatable delivery, and if the 26-year-old can build on his velocity gains and limit damage from right-handed batters (1.66 HR/9), his true breakthrough could still happen. You shouldn't have to pay for another 30 starts, which helps Matz's appeal. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $2.63 million contract with the Mets in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Delivers another quality start
PNew York Mets
August 20, 2019
Matz (8-7) earned the win Tuesday versus the Indians after allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over 6.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
Matz really only had trouble with one hitter Tuesday, as Jason Kipnis brought home both runs with a solo homer and an RBI single. The 28-year-old now has three straight quality starts in which he's given up five runs (three earned) across 19 innings in total. Matz lines up to close the week with a start against the Braves at home.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .271 307 54 26 73 15 2 6
Since 2017vs Right .255 1172 262 88 271 53 4 52
2019vs Left .296 109 21 6 29 7 1 4
2019vs Right .257 418 95 31 98 18 1 17
2018vs Left .236 128 24 12 26 3 1 2
2018vs Right .231 526 128 46 108 26 1 23
2017vs Left .295 70 9 8 18 5 0 0
2017vs Right .308 228 39 11 65 9 2 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-61%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.91 1.20 168.0 7 10 0 9.1 2.5 1.5
Since 2017Away 4.98 1.46 175.1 8 15 0 7.5 3.4 1.5
2019Home 2.07 1.11 61.0 6 0 0 9.6 2.4 0.7
2019Away 6.28 1.56 61.2 2 7 0 7.4 3.1 2.3
2018Home 3.59 1.05 85.1 1 6 0 8.8 2.7 1.8
2018Away 4.46 1.49 68.2 4 5 0 9.0 4.2 1.0
2017Home 10.38 2.03 21.2 0 4 0 9.1 2.1 2.5
2017Away 4.00 1.29 45.0 2 3 0 5.2 2.8 1.2
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Stat Review
How does Steven Matz compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.14
 
K/9
8.5
 
BB/9
2.7
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
93.2 mph
 
ERA
4.18
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.316
 
GB/FB
1.50
 
Left On Base
74.3%
 
Exit Velocity
89.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
9.9%
 
Spin Rate
2197 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
41.2%
 
Swinging Strike
9.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
After having bone spurs removed from his elbow prior to the 2017 campaign, Matz opened the season on the disabled list with renewed elbow discomfort. He came off the DL at the beginning of June and pitched 13 games before undergoing season-ending surgery to correct a nerve issue, again in his elbow. While active, Matz changed his approach in an effort to preserve his health. During the 2016 season, Matz threw his slider 10.4 percent of the time. That figure fell to 4.3 percent in 2017 -- he ditched the offering completely for a while. The change harmed his performance and resulted in a 6.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, career-worsts for the 26-year-old lefty. The long ball was detrimental to Matz, who gave up home runs at an alarming rate of 1.63 HR/9. Matz is expected to be ready for spring training and should have a rotation spot, but he is about as high risk of an arm as there is in baseball.
Unfortunately, nothing about Matz's outlook changed in 2016. He was seen as a high-end No. 3 starter with durability concerns, and sure enough, he posted a 3.39 FIP and 129:31 K:BB in 132.1 innings but missed the final six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury. He did not need shoulder surgery, but he did have an offseason procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow, further adding to the litany of arm issues on his resume at the age of 25. At his best, Matz pairs a mid-90s sinker that can miss bats with above-average secondaries in his curveball and changeup. His 51.1 percent groundball rate ranked 18th among starters with 130-plus innings, and for a sinkerballer, his 23.6 percent strikeout rate is pretty impressive. Matz will enter spring training as the Mets' No. 4 starter, and he will be appropriately discounted in drafts due to the durability concerns. If he ever stays healthy for a full season, his owners will enjoy the profits.
Already flush with an obscene amount of pitching, the Mets called up Matz in late June and he appeared ready to join the conversation as the next big thing along with his young rotation-mates. His first two starts were 13.2 IP of a 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and five walks. A torn lat muscle halted his speedy ascent and cost him two months, but he was good in September and throughout the postseason with a 3.19 ERA across 36.2 IP. The skills aren’t really in question, even after just 50 IP (regular & postseason), but health was an issue coming up through the minors and seeing him hit the DL after just two MLB starts is worrisome. At the same time, this kind of profile can net big returns as long as the price isn’t through the roof. Betting on health when the skills are already in place is a worthy gamble and a better use of resources than hoping for skills growth in areas of weakness.
Tommy John surgery prevented Matz, a 2009 second-rounder, from debuting as a pro until 2012. He wouldn’t make his full season debut until a year later, and while the numbers were impressive, he was as a 22-year-old in A-ball. Matz took a big step forward in 2014, not only with another injury-free season during which he managed a career-high innings total (141), but he dominated yet again, splitting time between High-A and Double-A with a low-2.00s ERA in both. He works at 92-94 mph from the left side with solid command. His slow curve can be a plus pitch and should also miss bats regularly. The growth of his changeup will determine his future. When right, it looks great, but it is inconsistent. He has made up for the missed time and now sits on the doorstep of the big leagues, but the Mets may not have a need anytime soon. Consider Matz a worthwhile pick in leagues with minor league focus, otherwise wait until he is in the majors to act on him.
Matz, the Mets' top selection in the 2009 draft, had a slow recovery from May 2010 Tommy John surgery, finally pitching this year in the minors. He made the most of the year, tossing an impressive season for Low-A Savannah and posting a 2.62 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 106.1 innings. He has a fastball that tops out around 94 mph in addition to a good feel for his curveball and changeup. Matz was added to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and he should begin 2014 at High-A St. Lucie.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out five
PNew York Mets
August 14, 2019
Matz gave up one run on two hits and one walk while striking out five through six innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Improves back to .500 mark
PNew York Mets
August 7, 2019
Matz (7-7) allowed two runs on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts across 6.2 innings to earn a victory against the Marlins on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Knocked around by Pittsburgh
PNew York Mets
August 2, 2019
Matz (6-7) took the loss after surrendering five runs on six hits and a walk while striking out four over 3.2 innings Friday against the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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Throws complete-game shutout
PNew York Mets
July 28, 2019
Matz (6-6) allowed five hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in a complete-game shutout against the Pirates on Saturday.
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Fans six in no-decision
PNew York Mets
July 21, 2019
Matz allowed two runs on six hits and a walk over six innings Sunday, striking out six during a no-decision in the loss to the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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