Steven Matz
Steven Matz
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Toronto Blue Jays
2021 Fantasy Outlook
When you look up the word enigma in the dictionary, you will find Matz's picture as an illustration of the word. For all of his potential, we have seen few results to back it up. This past season saw him strike out one of every four batters he faced, but that is the entire success story. Full stop. Matz was blasted around the strikeouts, allowing 14 homers in 30.2 innings of work. It was so bad, Jose Lima and Bert Blyleven felt bad for him. Add in 42 hits allowed and 10 walks, and it is pretty easy to figure out how a talented arm went 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA. The big blue wave of 2020 turned out to be Matz's Statcast page as he finished in the bottom 10th percentile in nearly every measure available. The Blue Jays bought low in an offseason trade, which may provide Matz the change of scenery he needs to right the ship. He should slot into the middle of Toronto's rotation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#539
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the Mets in December of 2020. Traded to the Blue Jays in January of 2021.
Stays sharp Saturday
PToronto Blue Jays
April 17, 2021
Matz (3-0) picked up the win in the first game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Royals, allowing one run on two hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five.
ANALYSIS
The southpaw has been outstanding to begin the season, reeling off three straight quality starts and giving up only one run in each of them. Matz tossed 48 of 82 pitches for strikes in Saturday's effort, and he'll take a 1.47 ERA and 18:6 K:BB through 18.1 innings into his next start Friday in Tampa Bay.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
88
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
88
How many pitches does Steven Matz generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Steven Matz generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-61%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-23%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .286 189 43 13 48 11 2 6
Since 2019vs Right .256 699 160 54 163 29 3 34
2021vs Left .250 21 7 0 5 1 1 0
2021vs Right .098 47 11 6 4 0 0 1
2020vs Left .409 25 7 2 9 3 0 1
2020vs Right .313 104 25 7 30 4 0 11
2019vs Left .270 143 29 11 34 7 1 5
2019vs Right .258 548 124 41 129 25 3 22
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-47%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-26%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-65%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.37 1.25 115.0 9 5 0 9.2 2.9 1.4
Since 2019Away 6.41 1.47 91.1 5 10 0 8.4 3.0 2.2
2021Home 1.50 1.33 6.0 1 0 0 6.0 4.5 1.5
2021Away 1.46 0.57 12.1 2 0 0 10.2 2.2 0.0
2020Home 8.84 1.71 19.1 0 3 0 10.2 2.8 4.2
2020Away 11.88 1.80 8.1 0 2 0 10.8 3.2 3.2
2019Home 2.31 1.15 89.2 8 2 0 9.2 2.8 0.8
2019Away 6.62 1.58 70.2 3 8 0 7.8 3.1 2.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Steven Matz compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.00
 
K/9
8.8
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
0.5
 
Fastball
94.7 mph
 
ERA
1.47
 
WHIP
0.82
 
BABIP
.192
 
GB/FB
1.50
 
Left On Base
88.2%
 
Exit Velocity
79.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.6%
 
Spin Rate
2170 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.8%
 
Swinging Strike
9.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Aside from a two-week stint on the injured list in May, Matz did well in his efforts to shed the "injury prone" label, making 30-plus starts for the second straight year while covering a career-high 160.1 innings. The improved health seemingly hasn't translated to much meaningful skills growth, however, as Matz's 4.23 xFIP and 14.5 K-BB% over the past two seasons are just about in line with his career marks (4.01 and 14.8%). Now 28 years old, Matz may never become the No. 2 starter that once seemed like a possibility when he broke into the majors in 2015, but he still maintains usefulness as a mid-rotation or back-end arm for both a real-life or fantasy pitching staff. Ideally, fantasy managers would maximize Matz's utility by keeping him active primarily for his home starts. He owns a 3.47 ERA at Citi Field for his career, including an exceptional 2.31 mark over 89.2 innings in 2019.
Matz exceeded the limited expectations set by his shaky health history, establishing career highs in starts and innings after offseason elbow surgery. The lefty kicked his K/9 back toward 9.0 and thrived in his home starts (3.59 ERA). Unfortunately, he endured another harmful HR/9 and posted a career-worst BB/9, leading the ERA estimators to paint a less rosy picture. The lefty dealt with a flexor pronator sprain in his left elbow in August but rebounded with a 2.51 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 32.1 September innings. In the end, he had a 10.4 K/9 in the second half. Matz worked to establish a repeatable delivery, and if the 26-year-old can build on his velocity gains and limit damage from right-handed batters (1.66 HR/9), his true breakthrough could still happen. You shouldn't have to pay for another 30 starts, which helps Matz's appeal.
After having bone spurs removed from his elbow prior to the 2017 campaign, Matz opened the season on the disabled list with renewed elbow discomfort. He came off the DL at the beginning of June and pitched 13 games before undergoing season-ending surgery to correct a nerve issue, again in his elbow. While active, Matz changed his approach in an effort to preserve his health. During the 2016 season, Matz threw his slider 10.4 percent of the time. That figure fell to 4.3 percent in 2017 -- he ditched the offering completely for a while. The change harmed his performance and resulted in a 6.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, career-worsts for the 26-year-old lefty. The long ball was detrimental to Matz, who gave up home runs at an alarming rate of 1.63 HR/9. Matz is expected to be ready for spring training and should have a rotation spot, but he is about as high risk of an arm as there is in baseball.
Unfortunately, nothing about Matz's outlook changed in 2016. He was seen as a high-end No. 3 starter with durability concerns, and sure enough, he posted a 3.39 FIP and 129:31 K:BB in 132.1 innings but missed the final six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury. He did not need shoulder surgery, but he did have an offseason procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow, further adding to the litany of arm issues on his resume at the age of 25. At his best, Matz pairs a mid-90s sinker that can miss bats with above-average secondaries in his curveball and changeup. His 51.1 percent groundball rate ranked 18th among starters with 130-plus innings, and for a sinkerballer, his 23.6 percent strikeout rate is pretty impressive. Matz will enter spring training as the Mets' No. 4 starter, and he will be appropriately discounted in drafts due to the durability concerns. If he ever stays healthy for a full season, his owners will enjoy the profits.
Already flush with an obscene amount of pitching, the Mets called up Matz in late June and he appeared ready to join the conversation as the next big thing along with his young rotation-mates. His first two starts were 13.2 IP of a 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and five walks. A torn lat muscle halted his speedy ascent and cost him two months, but he was good in September and throughout the postseason with a 3.19 ERA across 36.2 IP. The skills aren’t really in question, even after just 50 IP (regular & postseason), but health was an issue coming up through the minors and seeing him hit the DL after just two MLB starts is worrisome. At the same time, this kind of profile can net big returns as long as the price isn’t through the roof. Betting on health when the skills are already in place is a worthy gamble and a better use of resources than hoping for skills growth in areas of weakness.
Tommy John surgery prevented Matz, a 2009 second-rounder, from debuting as a pro until 2012. He wouldn’t make his full season debut until a year later, and while the numbers were impressive, he was as a 22-year-old in A-ball. Matz took a big step forward in 2014, not only with another injury-free season during which he managed a career-high innings total (141), but he dominated yet again, splitting time between High-A and Double-A with a low-2.00s ERA in both. He works at 92-94 mph from the left side with solid command. His slow curve can be a plus pitch and should also miss bats regularly. The growth of his changeup will determine his future. When right, it looks great, but it is inconsistent. He has made up for the missed time and now sits on the doorstep of the big leagues, but the Mets may not have a need anytime soon. Consider Matz a worthwhile pick in leagues with minor league focus, otherwise wait until he is in the majors to act on him.
Matz, the Mets' top selection in the 2009 draft, had a slow recovery from May 2010 Tommy John surgery, finally pitching this year in the minors. He made the most of the year, tossing an impressive season for Low-A Savannah and posting a 2.62 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 106.1 innings. He has a fastball that tops out around 94 mph in addition to a good feel for his curveball and changeup. Matz was added to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and he should begin 2014 at High-A St. Lucie.
More Fantasy News
Friday's start postponed
PToronto Blue Jays
April 16, 2021
Matz and the Blue Jays won't play the Royals on Friday as the game was postponed due to rain, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp again in second victory
PToronto Blue Jays
April 10, 2021
Matz (2-0) took the win against the Angels on Saturday, tossing six innings and allowing one run on five hits and three walks while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in first victory
PToronto Blue Jays
April 5, 2021
Matz (1-0) earned the win Monday against the Rangers by allowing one run on two hits and one walk while striking out nine over 6.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses 81 pitches Thursday
PToronto Blue Jays
March 26, 2021
Matz gave up two runs on six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in Thursday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Continues to pound zone
PToronto Blue Jays
March 21, 2021
Matz threw 74 pitches (53 strikes) over five innings in Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Phillies, allowing one run on five hits. He struck out six without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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