Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter
34-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
St. Louis Cardinals
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Raise your hand if waited for Carpenter to flip the script like in 2018. Unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be as he posted a career low average and OPS. Carpenter also amassed his second fewest plate appearances, the lowest since his first full season. Carpenter's contact rate dropped for the third straight year while his walk rate dipped for the second consecutive campaign. His average exit velocity was its lowest since Statcast began tracking in 2015. Carpenter had a couple of IL stints in July, but he was slashing just .216/.327/.384 prior to the first visit, so his slow start was more than health. Carpenter is an extreme flyball hitter, so if he fails to drive the ball with authority, the pop outs will pile up, especially at home in spacious Busch Stadium. Carpenter will be 34, a little young for such a marked collapse. The cost to speculate on a rebound is minimal; just have an exit plan. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#378
ADP
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$Signed a two-year, $37 million contract extension with the Cardinals in April of 2019. Contract includes an $18.5 million vesting or team option for 2022 ($2 million buyout).
Out of Thursday's lineup
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 17, 2020
Carpenter is not in the lineup Thursday against the Pirates, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
ANALYSIS
Carpenter will receive a breather after going hitless in his last 13 at-bats. Tommy Edman will start at third base while Rangel Ravelo works in right field Thursday.
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Batting Stats
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2017
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
7
9
4
15
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+9%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+14%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .762 319 36 11 34 2 .223 .349 .413
Since 2018vs Right .825 984 153 43 114 8 .245 .359 .466
2020vs Left .627 21 1 0 6 0 .176 .333 .294
2020vs Right .684 114 18 3 15 0 .204 .351 .333
2019vs Left .680 103 7 2 7 2 .217 .343 .337
2019vs Right .737 389 52 13 39 4 .228 .332 .405
2018vs Left .817 195 28 9 21 0 .232 .354 .463
2018vs Right .930 481 83 27 60 4 .268 .383 .548
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+29%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .788 647 99 22 66 7 .242 .367 .421
Since 2018Away .830 656 90 32 82 3 .237 .346 .484
2020Home .760 70 10 1 10 0 .212 .414 .346
2020Away .587 65 9 2 11 0 .190 .277 .310
2019Home .787 243 38 8 26 4 .254 .364 .423
2019Away .668 249 21 7 20 2 .200 .305 .363
2018Home .793 334 51 13 30 3 .240 .359 .434
2018Away .999 342 60 23 51 1 .274 .389 .611
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Stat Review
How does Matt Carpenter compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.49
 
BB Rate
13.7%
 
K Rate
28.1%
 
BABIP
.247
 
ISO
.116
 
AVG
.182
 
OBP
.322
 
SLG
.298
 
OPS
.619
 
wOBA
.301
 
Exit Velocity
82.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
43.4%
 
Barrels/PA
5.2%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Matt Carpenter
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
On May 15, Carpenter went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, and his slash line sat at .140/.286/.272. Many wondered if Carpenter's shoulder, the one he declined surgery on in the offseason, was hurting too much for him to be productive. A look at the Statcast data told us that Carpenter was the victim of bad luck as his batted-ball data should have produced a .430 SLG. The next day, Carpenter had two doubles, and went on a tear that resulted in him hitting .287/.397/.587 the rest of the season. The craziest part about those numbers is that Carpenter only had five extra-base hits in the final month of the season. From May 15 through Aug. 31, he hit .317/.420/.677! He hits a plethora of flyballs, and is coming off a career-high hard-contact rate. We have a monster summer bookended by a miserable April and September. The multi-positional eligibility (1B and 3B, and 2B in leagues with a 10-game minimum) is a bonus.
Carpenter was a top-45 real-life hitter last season as measured by wRC+ (123), but his .241 average kept him outside the top 100 among hitters in terms of earned value in traditional fantasy formats. He maintained a strikeout rate right around 20 percent while upping his walk rate to 17.5 percent, which was the fifth-best mark among qualified hitters. Opposing pitchers rarely fooled Carpenter -- his 16.6 O-Swing percentage was the second-lowest in baseball, trailing only Joey Votto -- and Carpenter routinely squared the ball up, posting the eighth-best hard-hit rate. However, he may have gotten a little too flyball happy (50.8 percent), and that combined with some tough luck on balls in play (.274 BABIP) hurt his overall numbers. Carpenter's performance against lefties did decline (.202/.343/.321), but it was a relatively small sample (109 at-bats). Expect a rebound, and it's possible Carpenter will regain eligibility at second base at some point.
Consistency has been the name of the game for Carpenter, who recorded a batting average above the .270 mark for the third consecutive season. While this has become expected from the 30-year-old, he drastically improved his patience at the plate. As a result, he finished the season with a .380 on-base percentage and was regularly the club's leadoff hitter. Naturally, the switch to hitting first came with a drop in RBI as he knocked in just 68 runs, nearly 20 fewer than he did in 2015, but he could move back down in the order following the addition of Dexter Fowler. He'll be highly valuable no matter where he hits in the order. It's worth noting that Carpenter dealt with an oblique injury that landed him on the disabled list for nearly a month in the second half of the season, but if he can stay healthy, Carpenter should have no problem reaching 20 home runs for the third straight year.
Carpenter hit like a third baseman upon moving to the position in 2015, and he swatted a career-best 28 home runs and delivered a league-leading 44 doubles. His .505 slugging percentage was a career high but he also struck out a whopping 151 times on his way to matching his .272 average from 2014. Carpenter almost certainly promises to provide value to his fantasy owners in 2016, but what kind of value isn't completely known given the recent change in approach, and the real question is whether owners can still profit at his increased cost. He's only two years removed from hitting .318 with a .392 OBP and just 98 strikeouts. Locked up through 2020, Carpenter at 29 figures to be the Cardinals' starting third baseman for the foreseeable future. He will likely hit near the top of the lineup again and is a near lock for 100 runs as he's averaged 109 a season over his last three years.
While Carpenter wasn't able to repeat his unlikely 2013 season when he posted a terrific 6.9 WAR and racked up a gaudy 126 runs he delivered another very good season, this time at third base for the Cardinals. Carpenter scored 99 runs while hitting .272/.375/.375 in 2014, but he lost his eligibility at second base with the permanent position switch. His BABIP fell from .359 to .318, explaining some of the decrease in his numbers, but he did see his walk rate tick up to 13.4%. Even though he doesn't provide much pop Carpenter, proved to be a solid third baseman in a year where there were few options at the position. It's possible the Cardinals could move him down into the second or third spot in the lineup, giving him a chance to drive in more runs. Regardless of where he lands in the order, Carpenter will look to deliver another top-10 season at the hot corner in 2015.
The Cardinals got a lot more than they were expecting from Carpenter when the 28-year-old utility man excelled in his first year at second base, hitting .318 in 717 plate appearances. He's not a prototypical leadoff hitter in that he does not offer great speed, but most of his advanced stats suggest that his 2013 season was not a fluke. As long as he's hitting near the top of the Cardinals' stacked lineup, he should be good for 100-plus runs again in 2014. Even with a move to third base following the trade of David Freese to Anaheim, Carpenter will offer fantasy owners flexibility by qualifying at second base as well this season.
It seems like Carpenter had a better year than his numbers showed. You may scoff at the 44 runs and 46 RBI from a corner infielder, but he did that in just 296 at-bats and qualifies at first, third and outfield (and possibly second base) in most leagues. Further, the 27-year-old has regularly posted an on-base percentage north of .400 in the minors. With Lance Berkman out of the picture, Carpenter could get the opportunity to win the everyday job at first base this season and post numbers reminiscent of Mark Grace.
Carpenter spent a couple of weeks with the Cardinals in June, but managed a single hit in 15 at-bats. That's the bad news. The good news is he had a 4:4 BB:K ratio in that stint, which perfectly illustrates his main strength as a hitter - his batting eye. With an 84:68 BB:K ratio with Triple-A Memphis leading to .419 OBP, Carpenter has the potential to be a good hitter at the major league level. His power isn't immense, especially for a corner infielder, and he's already 26, but if he can continue to get on base, he should be able to make a dent in the majors.
More Fantasy News
Late lineup addition
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 15, 2020
Carpenter will start at third base and bat seventh Tuesday against the Brewers, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
ANALYSIS
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On bench Tuesday
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 15, 2020
Carpenter is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Continues surging Sunday
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 14, 2020
Carpenter went 2-for-4 with an RBI single, a double and two runs in a loss to the Reds on Sunday.
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Clubs third homer
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 12, 2020
Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in Saturday's 7-1 win over the Reds.
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Plates pair in nightcap
3BSt. Louis Cardinals
September 11, 2020
Carpenter went 2-for-2 with an RBI single and a run-scoring double during a loss to the Tigers in the second game of a doubleheader Thursday.
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