Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter
33-Year-Old First Baseman1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
On May 15, Carpenter went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, and his slash line sat at .140/.286/.272. Many wondered if Carpenter's shoulder, the one he declined surgery on in the offseason, was hurting too much for him to be productive. A look at the Statcast data told us that Carpenter was the victim of bad luck as his batted-ball data should have produced a .430 SLG. The next day, Carpenter had two doubles, and went on a tear that resulted in him hitting .287/.397/.587 the rest of the season. The craziest part about those numbers is that Carpenter only had five extra-base hits in the final month of the season. From May 15 through Aug. 31, he hit .317/.420/.677! He hits a plethora of flyballs, and is coming off a career-high hard-contact rate. We have a monster summer bookended by a miserable April and September. The multi-positional eligibility (1B and 3B, and 2B in leagues with a 10-game minimum) is a bonus. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#73
ADP
Add To Watchlist
$Signed a two-year, $37 million contract extension with the Cardinals in April of 2019. Contract includes an $18.5 million vesting or team option for 2022 ($2 million buyout).
Won't miss any games
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
April 21, 2019
Carpenter (knee) is leading off and playing third base Sunday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
Carpenter fouled a ball off his knee in Saturday's contest and was forced to leave the game. He wasn't diagnosed with anything worse than a contusion, and the issue evidently isn't serious enough for him to require a day off.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
19
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+18%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+14%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+33%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .756 356 45 12 35 1 .219 .348 .408
Since 2017vs Right .889 1049 172 50 120 6 .256 .383 .506
2019vs Left .754 24 3 1 2 0 .211 .333 .421
2019vs Right .688 83 12 2 3 1 .208 .313 .375
2018vs Left .817 195 28 9 21 0 .232 .354 .463
2018vs Right .930 481 83 27 60 4 .268 .383 .548
2017vs Left .664 137 14 2 12 1 .202 .343 .321
2017vs Right .883 485 77 21 57 1 .253 .395 .487
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+17%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+11%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .787 697 103 22 64 5 .240 .366 .421
Since 2017Away .922 708 114 40 91 2 .253 .382 .540
2019Home .661 53 9 0 1 1 .233 .358 .302
2019Away .736 54 6 3 4 0 .188 .278 .458
2018Home .793 334 51 13 30 3 .240 .359 .434
2018Away .999 342 60 23 51 1 .274 .389 .611
2017Home .802 310 43 9 33 1 .240 .374 .428
2017Away .867 312 48 14 36 1 .243 .394 .474
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Stat Review
How does Matt Carpenter compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.63
 
BB Rate
14.0%
 
K Rate
22.4%
 
BABIP
.246
 
ISO
.176
 
AVG
.209
 
OBP
.318
 
SLG
.385
 
OPS
.702
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Cardinals Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Matt Carpenter
DraftKings MLB: Friday Picks
7 days ago
White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon faces a Tigers squad that has a woeful .064 ISO against lefties while striking out 23.1 percent of the time.
Rounding Third: Exploring Hitter Statcast Data
11 days ago
Teoscar Hernandez was a surprise leader among qualified hitters in barreled hits percentage last season – among the revelations that Jeff Erickson discovered while navigating batter Statcast data.
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Breakdown
12 days ago
Masahiro Tanaka has looked dominant so far and should continue to shine against the weak-hitting White Sox.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Saturday Picks
13 days ago
With Homer Bailey set to start for the Royals, Sasha Yodashkin encourages you to select a few Indians bats.
The Long Game: Free Agent Freefall
16 days ago
Erik Siegrist examines the market forces that have kept Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel at home to begin the season and wonders whether 2020 free agents like Khris Davis will also have trouble getting paid.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Carpenter was a top-45 real-life hitter last season as measured by wRC+ (123), but his .241 average kept him outside the top 100 among hitters in terms of earned value in traditional fantasy formats. He maintained a strikeout rate right around 20 percent while upping his walk rate to 17.5 percent, which was the fifth-best mark among qualified hitters. Opposing pitchers rarely fooled Carpenter -- his 16.6 O-Swing percentage was the second-lowest in baseball, trailing only Joey Votto -- and Carpenter routinely squared the ball up, posting the eighth-best hard-hit rate. However, he may have gotten a little too flyball happy (50.8 percent), and that combined with some tough luck on balls in play (.274 BABIP) hurt his overall numbers. Carpenter's performance against lefties did decline (.202/.343/.321), but it was a relatively small sample (109 at-bats). Expect a rebound, and it's possible Carpenter will regain eligibility at second base at some point.
Consistency has been the name of the game for Carpenter, who recorded a batting average above the .270 mark for the third consecutive season. While this has become expected from the 30-year-old, he drastically improved his patience at the plate. As a result, he finished the season with a .380 on-base percentage and was regularly the club's leadoff hitter. Naturally, the switch to hitting first came with a drop in RBI as he knocked in just 68 runs, nearly 20 fewer than he did in 2015, but he could move back down in the order following the addition of Dexter Fowler. He'll be highly valuable no matter where he hits in the order. It's worth noting that Carpenter dealt with an oblique injury that landed him on the disabled list for nearly a month in the second half of the season, but if he can stay healthy, Carpenter should have no problem reaching 20 home runs for the third straight year.
Carpenter hit like a third baseman upon moving to the position in 2015, and he swatted a career-best 28 home runs and delivered a league-leading 44 doubles. His .505 slugging percentage was a career high but he also struck out a whopping 151 times on his way to matching his .272 average from 2014. Carpenter almost certainly promises to provide value to his fantasy owners in 2016, but what kind of value isn't completely known given the recent change in approach, and the real question is whether owners can still profit at his increased cost. He's only two years removed from hitting .318 with a .392 OBP and just 98 strikeouts. Locked up through 2020, Carpenter at 29 figures to be the Cardinals' starting third baseman for the foreseeable future. He will likely hit near the top of the lineup again and is a near lock for 100 runs as he's averaged 109 a season over his last three years.
While Carpenter wasn't able to repeat his unlikely 2013 season when he posted a terrific 6.9 WAR and racked up a gaudy 126 runs he delivered another very good season, this time at third base for the Cardinals. Carpenter scored 99 runs while hitting .272/.375/.375 in 2014, but he lost his eligibility at second base with the permanent position switch. His BABIP fell from .359 to .318, explaining some of the decrease in his numbers, but he did see his walk rate tick up to 13.4%. Even though he doesn't provide much pop Carpenter, proved to be a solid third baseman in a year where there were few options at the position. It's possible the Cardinals could move him down into the second or third spot in the lineup, giving him a chance to drive in more runs. Regardless of where he lands in the order, Carpenter will look to deliver another top-10 season at the hot corner in 2015.
The Cardinals got a lot more than they were expecting from Carpenter when the 28-year-old utility man excelled in his first year at second base, hitting .318 in 717 plate appearances. He's not a prototypical leadoff hitter in that he does not offer great speed, but most of his advanced stats suggest that his 2013 season was not a fluke. As long as he's hitting near the top of the Cardinals' stacked lineup, he should be good for 100-plus runs again in 2014. Even with a move to third base following the trade of David Freese to Anaheim, Carpenter will offer fantasy owners flexibility by qualifying at second base as well this season.
It seems like Carpenter had a better year than his numbers showed. You may scoff at the 44 runs and 46 RBI from a corner infielder, but he did that in just 296 at-bats and qualifies at first, third and outfield (and possibly second base) in most leagues. Further, the 27-year-old has regularly posted an on-base percentage north of .400 in the minors. With Lance Berkman out of the picture, Carpenter could get the opportunity to win the everyday job at first base this season and post numbers reminiscent of Mark Grace.
Carpenter spent a couple of weeks with the Cardinals in June, but managed a single hit in 15 at-bats. That's the bad news. The good news is he had a 4:4 BB:K ratio in that stint, which perfectly illustrates his main strength as a hitter - his batting eye. With an 84:68 BB:K ratio with Triple-A Memphis leading to .419 OBP, Carpenter has the potential to be a good hitter at the major league level. His power isn't immense, especially for a corner infielder, and he's already 26, but if he can continue to get on base, he should be able to make a dent in the majors.
More Fantasy News
Exits with knee bruise
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
Bruise
April 20, 2019
Carpenter left Saturday's game against the Mets after fouling a ball off his knee, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits third homer
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
April 17, 2019
Carpenter went 1-for-5 with a solo homer in a 6-3 victory against the Brewers on Wednesday.
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Leaves yard in win
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
April 15, 2019
Carpenter went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and a walk in a win over the Reds on Sunday.
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Makes noise from top of order
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
April 14, 2019
Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a triple and a walk in a loss to the Reds on Saturday.
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Sitting in series finale
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
April 11, 2019
Carpenter is out of the lineup for Thursday's game against the Dodgers.
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