Behind the Breakout: Brantley Goes Boom

This article is part of our Behind the Breakout series.

Michael Brantley enjoyed arguably the biggest breakout season in 2014, emerging as an elite fantasy option with across-the-board production that was good enough to finish as the fourth-best player and third-best hitter in baseball according to ESPN's Player Rater. Prior to 2014, Brantley had a pair of useful efforts that would often be tabbed as "good little seasons" with an average of .286, 64 R, 8 HR, 66 RBI, and 14 SB in 150 games. The value didn't jump off the page, but it was clear that he was developing into a solid, albeit unspectacular player. So how did he explode for a .327, 94 R, 20 HR, 97 RBI, and 23 SB season?

WHAT CHANGED

Brantley added a lot more punch this year as he nearly doubled his HR/FB rate. His 2013 mark of 6.8 percent was a career-high to that point as he languished in the 4-6 percent range in his three previous seasons, and then exploded for a 12.7 percent rate this past season. There wasn't any significant shift in his batted ball profile that spurred the change and while it was a major jump, it wasn't like Domonic Brown who jumped from 9.8 percent in 2012 to 19.3 percent in 2013 before regressing back to 7.9 percent last year.

Brantley's power surge was a result of him muscling up against fastballs for the first time in his career. Surprisingly, at least to me, Brantley has spent his career as a below average hitter against hard stuff, specifically from a power standpoint. He became a full-time player in 2011 and from then through 2013, the league hit .286/.353/.450 against fastballs, but Brantley had just a .279/.334/.408 line with 19 home runs in 1,065 PA. In 2014, he blew up with a .354/.415/.549 line and 15 homers in 453 PA against heaters. His .964 OPS was ninth in baseball and well above the .802 league average.

His work on the hard stuff got better across the board, but the biggest power dividends came in hitter-friendly counts. He was actually bad in those spots in 2013 with a .738 OPS and just two homers in 146 PA (league OPS was 1.085). He was much sharper in 2014 with a 1.085 OPS which actually bested the 1.061 league average. He also had seven homers in the 156 PA.

While the power was boosted by taking advantage of fastballs in hitter-friendly counts, his batting average surge was largely driven by major improvements on hard stuff in pitcher-friendly counts. The league usually hits a .230-something average with a sub-.600 OPS in those counts and Brantley was no different. His .234 AVG and .586 OPS in 2013 were almost exactly league average (.232, .589) and he was worse in the two years before that with a .201 AVG and .455 OPS. Last season, he flipped the script entirely with a .325 AVG that was good for fifth in the league and an .875 OPS that ranked third-best.

He actually hit one fewer homer in these situations (down to three), but look at how much better he used the opposite field for doubles down the line. This chart comes from BaseballSavant.com:

He had nine more doubles down the left field line when behind in the count last year and the bulk of that improvement came via a better approach against pitches on the outer third of the plate. At this point, we are parsing quite a bit, but stick with me. When behind in the count, Brantley hit just .238 on hard stuff on the outer third of the zone in 2013, but last year that rocketed up to .417 (20-for-48) including eight doubles. Here's a look at his performance in those zones from the pitcher's perspective:

IS IT SUSTAINABLE?

I don't think there is a flat "yes" or "no" answer to this question. I think aspects of what we saw in 2014 are definitely sustainable going forward, while others are ripe for regression. His 1.085 OPS against fastballs in hitter-friendly counts was only 59th in the league, it wasn't fueled by a .400-something BABIP that is sure to drop. It was his full-season best, but not by leaps and bounds over the .918 and .951 marks he posted in 2012 and 2011, respectively.

A quality hitter like Brantley should excel in these situations so there is no reason to believe he can't continue to do so. Additionally, his huge year may be a driving force to putting him into more hitter-friendly situations where he will get fastballs to feast upon. Now in the midst of his prime, the accompanying power surge should hold firm, too. Looking at his home run distribution from HitTrackerOnline, we learn that only five of his 20 home runs were the Just Enough variety. And while he could give a couple of those back, he did pop 45 doubles, too, so he was driving the ball all season long. If the power had been driven by an exorbitant HR/FB rate, I would be more concerned, but he could pop another 20 homers even if he fell back to the 10-11 percent rate that has been league average for over a decade now.

That elite-level production in pitcher-friendly counts against hard stuff is where we could see some regression in 2015. There have only been an average of six players per year who eclipse the .800 OPS mark in those situations over the last four seasons and the only two players with a composite mark over .800 are former MVPs Miguel Cabrera (.856) and Andrew McCutchen (.805). Jose Abreu has a 1.019 OPS, but with only one year of play.

Brantley's best route to success in those counts is to cut down on them altogether as he did in 2014 (131 PA, down from 141 in 2013 despite a career-high 676 PA in total) and continue to pounce on the outer third and utilize the opposite field. I would be very surprised if we saw a repeat of his .325/.351/.524 line, though, so I expect to see that .327 composite average drop some as a result.

2015 OUTLOOK

Even with some regression off of a career year, the future remains bright for Brantley. He has a deep, diverse skill set that was evident in his mid-20s and bodes well for the remainder of his late-20s. His contact-heavy approach of line drives and groundballs gives his batting average a strong floor even if he doesn't repeat the .327 mark. While his move to the third spot of that lineup means his runs scored and RBI totals should remain strong and could even flirt with triple digits if run producers Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Lonnie Chisenhall can find a measure of consistency that eluded them in 2014. I would tab Brantley for something like a .290, 95-run, 16-homer, 90-RBI, and 19-steal season in 2015.

There aren't many players who are 1:1 matches with Brantley's profile, but some similarly skilled guys who could take a Brantley-like jump forward in 2015 include Leonys Martin, Christian Yelich, Desmond Jennings, and everyone's favorite postseason standout Lorenzo Cain. Starling Marte won't sneak up on the fantasy community because of his huge stolen-base totals as a major leaguer already, but he could take the power leap forward into the high-teens, low-20s.