Ivan Nova, PIT vs. WAS ($7,200): Nova’s excellent results with the Pirates since coming over from the Yankees make him worth a long look at just $7,200 against a Nationals team that has dropped five of their last six on an extended road trip. The culprit behind Washington’s recent slide is an offense that has been held to three or fewer runs in eight of the last 12 games, which makes Nova likely to bounce back after registering his first poor outing with his new team last time out. Even with that subpar road start, the right-hander has a 2.93 ERA to go with a 7.32 K/9 and a minuscule three total walks in 55.1 innings for Pittsburgh. That level of production is worth well over $7,200.
Welington Castillo, ARI at BAL ($3,000): Castillo has pummeled left-handers far more talented than Wade Miley this season, so he should have no problem adding to his robust .372 wOBA in that split here. The catcher is 4-for-10 with a homer lifetime against Miley, who is allowing a .364 wOBA to right-handers and had been dealing with a back injury coming into this game. With all these factors working in his favor, Arizona’s cleanup hitter offers tremendous bang for the buck at just $3,000.
Brandon Belt, SF at SD ($3,400): Belt already has four hits in five career at-bats against Jarred Cosart, and he’s likely to keep the good times rolling after managing an extra-base hit in three straight games heading into the weekend. The Giants first baseman has a .390 road wOBA facing righties, which makes him a terrific play against a pitcher that has lasted just 11.1 innings combined over his last three starts while allowing 21 base-runners and 15 runs. Cosart is almost certainly going to exit early again after lasting more than 5.2 innings just once all season, but Belt’s .381 wOBA against lefties also makes him matchup-proof regardless of who San Diego throws at him out of the bullpen later in the game.
Scooter Gennett, MIL vs. CIN ($3,500): Milwaukee’s two-hole hitter has hit safely in all 14 of his September starts heading into the weekend, and should be able to keep that streak going and more against a familiar foe in Dan Straily. The red-hot second baseman hasn’t just been settling for singles lately as he has three homers, five doubles, eight runs and nine RBI in his last eight games despite being used as a pinch-hitter and getting a single at-bat in two of those contests. Gennett is 3-for-7 lifetime against Straily, and is likely to improve on that mark given his recent success and the right-hander’s struggles over his last five starts (5.27 ERA in 27.1 innings).
Maikel Franco, PHI at NYM ($2,800): Franco has been on fire coming into this contest, launching homers in consecutive games as part of a 9-for-25 stretch with 12 RBI over his last six appearances. His .348 wOBA against southpaws is trending up as a result of this recent success, and that shouldn’t change against Mets starter Sean Gilmartin. Gilmartin has accrued a 4.76 ERA in 17 innings out of the bullpen, but this will be his first start of the season. Expect Franco to produce out of the heart of the Phillies order in this favorable matchup.
Adam Frazier, PIT vs. WAS ($2,000): Frazier is too good a value to pass up at the minimum price given his new role as the leadoff man for an above average Pirates offense. He has proven capable of big performances with a pair of three-hit games in his last six appearances, and could keep that going against Nationals starter Joe Ross making just his second start since coming off the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury. Ross lasted just three innings in his first start back, which makes him unlikely to keep the Pirates' offense at bay for long. Given Ross’ struggles with left-handed hitters (.358 wOBA allowed), Frazier makes for the best value play on the team in this situation.
Melky Cabrera, CWS at CLE ($3,000): Indians starter Cody Anderson is giving up a .389 wOBA to hitters from the left side, which is where the switch-hitting Cabrera will be batting in this one. Cabrera has been raking out of the heart of the White Sox order all month, with 27 hits and 16 RBI in 20 September games. A slowdown from the veteran outfielder is unlikely here given his past success against this vulnerable pitcher (5-for-10 with a homer).
Yasmany Tomas, ARI at BAL ($2,700): Just like his teammate Castillo, Tomas does most of his damage against lefties. The Cuban outfielder has an astronomical .456 wOBA in that split, making him an incredible value play against Miley at just $2,700. Given that the Orioles' left-hander will be pitching through a back injury and was already allowing a .364 wOBA to all righties even when healthy, this pick is about as close as you can get to a sure thing, and it doesn’t require breaking the bank.
Joc Pederson, LAD vs. COL ($3,300): Pederson would be even more valuable if this game were at Coors Field, but he should still be a useful asset at home against Colorado’s Chad Bettis. The young outfielder’s .385 wOBA against righties in general rises to a superb .424 mark at Dodger Stadium, and he has reached base nine times in the last five games while homering twice in that span. Those numbers should continue to trend upward against a pitcher with a 4.79 ERA who allowed four runs over six innings in his only previous meeting with the Dodgers this season.