This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers: To be clear, on such a short slate there simply isn't a true "avoid at all costs" defense on the schedule, as even the top 10-ranked units of the Bulls and Hornets are facing fast-paced, offensively proficient squads in the Warriors and Suns, respectively. The Thunder have the ability to largely neutralize Jusuf Nurkic down low with Steven Adams, and also held this same squad to 99 points in their last meeting. Again, while there won't be a complete shutdown of the Blazers here by any stretch, but the Thunder could pose some problems for Portland.
Offense To Use
Phoenix Suns vs. Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets are ranked 10th in terms points allowed (104.4), but will be playing their fourth game in six nights Thursday as they near the end of their Western Conference swing. The Suns have scored the 10th-most points (107.1) per game this season and an even better 107.8 points per contest at home, and athletic big men Alex Len and Marquese Chriss could particularly give the Hornets vulnerable frontcourt trouble.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Suns, Thunder
Second game of a back-to-back: None
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Stephen Curry, GS at CHI ($10,000): Russell Westbrook ($13,300) has been worth every penny of his significantly elevated price recently, so there's certainly no issue with deploying him Thursday if you can make it work. However, it's also hard to go wrong with Curry at more than $3K cheaper, considering the Warriors' "new normal" without Kevin Durant (knee). Curry boasts a 34.2 percent usage rate and averages a superb 1.48 fantasy points per minute without Durant on the floor this season, and tallied 44.25 fantasy points after the latter exited Tuesday's game against the Wizards with his injury. With a couple of days to prepare for a reprisal of the role he regularly eclipsed the 50-fantasy point mark in last season – as well as a matchup against a Bulls defense that's surrendered 54.7 fantasy points per game to point guards on the season – Curry shapes up as a solid "value play" despite his five-figure price.
Rajon Rondo, CHI vs. GS ($5,300): Klay Thompson ($7,200) is also a solid play at the higher end of the mid-tier level despite a relatively tough matchup against Dwyane Wade, considering his 29.1 percent usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute without Durant on the floor this season. However, for those hunting for value so as to fit in a Westbrook, for example, there's Rondo, who's scored between 20.25 and 34.0 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. He's done it through various means as well, as he's posted double-digit scoring in five of those contests, multiple steals in five games as well, and between five and nine assists in eight outings during that stretch. He's been markedly better at home this season as well, averaging 27.3 fantasy points over 24 contests at United Center, and he already scored 32.4 fantasy points in his one previous game versus the Warriors this season.
Marco Belinelli, CHA at PHO ($3,400): Alex Abrines ($3,600) has been able to provide some serviceable scoring numbers in Victor Oladipo's (back) stead but not much else, and Belinelli's teammate Jeremy Lamb ($3,500) can be a bit of a dice roll due to inconsistency. Belinelli's performances can fluctuate from time to time as well, but he's been a bit steadier, scoring over 20 fantasy points in five of the last 10 games. As with any two-guard on a second unit, he can burn you with an off night, but the one thing about the veteran is that he's always aggressive when on the floor, as evidenced by a solid 18.4 percent usage rate. The matchup is in his favor as well, as the Suns give up 2.9 made three-pointers and a healthy 44.6 percent success rate from the field to shooting guards.
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. GS ($8,900): For much the same reasons that teammates Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are highly appealing without Kevin Durant in the lineup, Draymond Green ($8,000) also serves as a solid alternative at the higher end at forward Thursday. However, for those with the extra $900 to spend, Butler is certainly worthy of considering, considering he won't have to worry about defending Kevin Durant and will be looking to bounce back from a rough three-game stretch where he's shot a combined 18-of-53 from the field. Like many of his teammates, Butler has been notably more productive at United Center this season as well, averaging 45.3 fantasy points across 30 home contests. In what should be an uptempo matchup and with his lowest price tag since Feb. 14, Butler is an excellent option at the upper tier on a small slate.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. CHA ($5,500): P.J. Tucker's departure to Toronto at the trade deadline seemed to snap Warren back to early-season form, as he's scored between 25.25 and 33.5 fantasy points over the first four games following the trade. He's back to heavy minutes as well, having logged between 34 and 39 over the last three contests and putting up a combined 41 shot attempts during that span. Meanwhile, his price has risen only $500 overall during this recent surge, making him a great value play against an average defense in the Hornets.
Patrick McCaw, GS at CHI ($3,000): Doug McDermott ($3,300) and his former Bulls teammate Denzel Valentine ($3,200) are also worthy of a possible dart throw at this level, although both carry some concerns with respect to playing time. Meanwhile, McCaw is minimum-priced and likely to get first crack at replacing Durant at small forward. McCaw managed 20 fantasy points over 25 minutes in a start against the Nets on Feb. 25, and also went for 23.75 fantasy points against the Nuggets on Feb. 13, providing a glimpse at his upside.
Frank Kaminsky III, CHA at PHO ($7,200): Despite Cody Zeller's return on Tuesday, Kaminsky still drew the start and logged 36 minutes against the Lakers, scoring a whopping 48.5 fantasy points. He's been outstanding over the last 10 overall, eclipsing 50 fantasy points once and going over 40 on three other occasions during that stretch as well. The Suns also surrender the ninth-most fantasy points (50.3) and seventh-highest field-goal percentage (55.3) to centers on the season, furthering his case.
Steven Adams, OKC at POR ($5,400): Adams struggled against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz on Tuesday, but that's a matchup he's historically had trouble producing in. It's an entirely different scenario Thursday, as the Blazers have surrendered 50 fantasy points per game to centers, along with 21.1 points and 15.1 rebounds. Before Tuesday's outlier, Adams had eclipsed 25 fantasy points in seven of the nine previous games, and is set up for more of the same against Jusuf Nurkic's average defense Thursday.
Alex Len, PHO vs. CHA ($4,000): Len started to see more run shortly before the All-Star break, playing less than 19 minutes only once in the last seven games. He's eclipsed 20 fantasy points in five of those contests, and could be in line for more of the same against the Hornets, who have been vulnerable all season to big men. Charlotte surrenders the eighth-most fantasy points (50.3) to centers on the season, along with a robust 15 rebounds per game.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
