NBA Injury Analysis: He Told You So

NBA Injury Analysis: He Told You So

This article is part of our NBA Injury Analysis series.

Kevin Durant
The worst case scenario for the reigning MVP has finally emerged. The lingering soreness in his problematic right foot has forced the Thunder to remove Durant from all basketball-related activities until the symptoms dissipate. The team has ruled him out indefinitely and all signs point to Durant missing the remainder of the regular season.

When it was first announced in October that Durant would require surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his fifth metatarsal, I warned about the numerous problems associated with this type of injury. The re-occurrence rate for reinjury is higher than other foot and ankle problems and surgery doesn't guarantee a speedy recovery. Multiple players, including Brook Lopez and Glen Davis, have needed multiple surgeries to address lingering problems and faulty hardware. Durant followed a similar path and needed a second procedure to alleviate pain caused by the surgical screw rubbing against the neighboring cuboid bone. While the bone has shown signs of healing and the issue wasn't as severe as total hardware failure, Durant continued to battle with pain and soreness.

At this point, an extended time off is really the best course of treatment. Stress on the area can be minimized and any potential biomechanical flaws can be addressed. However, doing so obviously comes at the cost of this season. With injuries mounting and their playoff hopes still in limbo, shutting down Durant is the safe play. It's clearly not what fantasy owners in one-year leagues want to hear but it

Kevin Durant
The worst case scenario for the reigning MVP has finally emerged. The lingering soreness in his problematic right foot has forced the Thunder to remove Durant from all basketball-related activities until the symptoms dissipate. The team has ruled him out indefinitely and all signs point to Durant missing the remainder of the regular season.

When it was first announced in October that Durant would require surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his fifth metatarsal, I warned about the numerous problems associated with this type of injury. The re-occurrence rate for reinjury is higher than other foot and ankle problems and surgery doesn't guarantee a speedy recovery. Multiple players, including Brook Lopez and Glen Davis, have needed multiple surgeries to address lingering problems and faulty hardware. Durant followed a similar path and needed a second procedure to alleviate pain caused by the surgical screw rubbing against the neighboring cuboid bone. While the bone has shown signs of healing and the issue wasn't as severe as total hardware failure, Durant continued to battle with pain and soreness.

At this point, an extended time off is really the best course of treatment. Stress on the area can be minimized and any potential biomechanical flaws can be addressed. However, doing so obviously comes at the cost of this season. With injuries mounting and their playoff hopes still in limbo, shutting down Durant is the safe play. It's clearly not what fantasy owners in one-year leagues want to hear but it does give KD the best shot at returning to an elite level of play next season. As a result, Durant becomes waiver-wire fodder for yearly leagues, though his keeper value in dynasty leagues remains largely unaffected. The Thunder will lean heavily on Russell Westbrook down the stretch, with Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow also seeing a bump in opportunities.

Serge Ibaka
Like Durant, Ibaka's value for the remainder of the season is all but gone after the center underwent surgery to address a defect on the underside of his patella. The problem was causing lingering soreness and swelling within the joint and limiting him on the court. The initial timeline ruled Ibaka out for four-to-six weeks though he's hoping to return ahead of schedule. However with just four weeks left in the regular season, it's hard to imagine Ibaka returning in time to impact the fantasy postseason. The chances of him sitting out the rest of the year also remain high, especially if OKC slips out of the playoff picture. Enes Kanter remains the biggest beneficiary of Ibaka's injury, though Mitch McGary becomes a nice speculative add in deeper formats.

Terrence Jones
The Houston forward has endured a tough season. Jones missed 41 games early on after suffering a peroneal nerve contusion in his right leg. Now he will be forced to sit for another extended period after suffering a rib injury that included a partially collapsed lung.

The injury occurred when Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried kneed Jones in the side while the two scrambled for a loose ball. The injury was initially classified as a rib injury though Jones was required to spend the night in a local hospital. Tests performed at the hospital revealed a pneumothorax.

The partially collapsed lung occurred following the impact of the collision. The resulting force damaged a rib as well as the pleural cavity of the lung, causing the space outside the lung and the chest cavity to fill with air. This air caused the lung to collapse resulting in the pneumothorax.

The rate of recovery depends on the size of the pneumothorax. If it is large, then a chest tube to remove the air may be necessary. Other than that, time remains the best treatment option to let the lung and rib injury heal. Fortunately, reports out of Houston have revealed Jones did not suffer a rib fracture.

Determining a specific time frame until Jones' return is difficult, as the injury is uncommon in the NBA. The only recently reported case of a collapsed lung occurred during the 2008-09 season when Gerald Wallace, then a member of the Bobcats, was injured following a flagrant foul from Andrew Bynum. Wallace fractured his fifth rib and 30-to-40 percent of his left lung collapsed. He required a chest tube to drain the air from around the lung and missed seven games.

Jones is currently expected to miss at least one week, though a lengthier time off seems probable. He will likely be forced to wear a protective flak jacket upon his return, which may require an adjustment period. Fantasy owners in the thick of the playoffs are best to look elsewhere. Houston will employ Josh Smith, Donatas Motiejunas and Joey Dorsey in his place, at least until center Dwight Howard can return. Howard, out since late January with swelling his knee, is close to a return, though he will likely be on a strict minutes limit when he does come back.

Fast Breaks

Klay Thompson
The normally resilient member of the Splash Brothers continues to work his way back from a sprained ankle. Thompson suffered the injury when he came down on the foot of Lakers center Tarik Black. He was originally set to miss 7-to-10 days, making a mid-week return possible. However, he has yet to really elevate his on-court activities and remains questionable to play Monday against the Wizards. With the Warriors locked into the playoffs, don't be shocked if the team plays things conservatively with their All-Star guard.

Gordon Hayward
The Jazz forward remains questionable for Monday's game against the Timberwolves. Hayward suffered a Grade I acromioclavicular (AC) sprain at some point over the last week. The severity of the injury remains low, though it's worth noting a Grade I sprain of the opposite shoulder cost Hayward 10 games during the 2012-13 season. Tread carefully here as this will likely be a game-time decision.

Paul George
While it seems likely that PG-13 will return at some point this season, it's hard to imagine him making much of an impact on the fantasy landscape. The Pacers will keep him on a tight leash and no one really knows how he will look upon returning. Don't be tempted by the big name and let someone else take the risk.

Isaiah Thomas
The Celtics point guard remains limited by a lower back contusion. He isn't expected to play Monday, though a Wednesday return is possible. Boston has a fantasy-friendly schedule for the remainder of the year, so fantasy owners may be able to stomach one missed game this week. However, if the pain and soreness continues to persist, consider other more reliable options.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Stotts
Jeff Stotts works as a Certified Athletic Trainer (MAT, ATC, PES, CES). He won the 2011 Best Fantasy Football Article in Print from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association.
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