This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There are 10 games on the NBA slate Saturday, but we'll focus on the eight that start at 8 p.m. Eastern or later. Miami at Cleveland is probably the most important game of the night, both in terms of standings and from an intrigue perspective with LeBron James facing his former team. The two tough defenses involved in that one make it hardly ideal from a fantasy perspective, though. Kings-Rockets takes the cake there, as both teams rank among the NBA's three worst defenses, but it's important to consider other factors such as injuries and momentum in addition to opponent if you want to truly maximize your lineup's fantasy value.
GUARD
Elfrid Payton, ORL at LAC ($25) - Payton is averaging a healthy 29.8 fantasy points per game over his last five, and this matchup against the Clippers looks much less intimidating with no Chris Paul on the other side. Los Angeles plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, and the young point guard should thrive running against Austin Rivers. Payton has managed to up his scoring average to 13.6 PPG while still dishing 7.6 assists per game in his last five, so he's in line for a big game if he can rack up a few extra defensive stats against a Clippers team that turned it over 15 times without Paul at the helm Wednesday.
Tony Parker, SAS vs. BOS ($22) - Parker continues to be undervalued due to his slow start. The Frenchman is averaging 28.6 fantasy points per game in his last 10, playing at least 31 minutes in all four games that weren't part of a back-to-back set in that span. The specter of coach Gregg Popovich limiting his playing time has definitely contributed to Parker's depressed price, but the smart shopper can take advantage, knowing that Saturday's tilt against the Celtics is sandwiched between days off. Parker's averages in those aforementioned four recent non-back-to-back games: 18.5 points and 8.5 assists per game.
Guard to Avoid:
Ricky Rubio, MIN vs. POR ($29) - Rubio looked a step slow in his return from an ankle injury Tuesday, scoring just three points while dishing out only three dimes in 27 minutes against the Magic. While he can be expected to improve on that output, it's concerning that Rubio hasn't managed to reach double digits in both points and assists in the same game since his first appearance of the season. Until Rubio starts to demonstrate more offensive consistency, it's tough to justify investing $29 in him, especially considering he's only managed to break 30.0 fantasy points once in his last seven tries.
Others to Avoid: Derrick Rose ($28), George Hill ($26), Khris Middleton ($25), Goran Dragic ($22), Kevin Martin ($17)
FORWARD
Jamal Crawford, LAC vs. ORL ($16) - While he's listed as a small forward, Crawford will see plenty of playing time in the Clippers' backcourt with point guard Chris Paul out and shooting guard J.J. Redick listed as a gametime decision. Even if Redick plays, expect Los Angeles to let Crawford take plenty of shots in the search for more offense. Since his putrid efficiency isn't an issue in this format, Crawford should easily be able to outperform his valuation, as replicating Wednesday's 16-point effort shouldn't be much of a problem.
Kristaps Porzingis, NYK at MIL ($34) - While Porzingis has been impressive everywhere he goes, the rookie's recent road numbers have been off the charts. Porzingis has averaged 44.9 fantasy points per game in his last three away from Madison Square Garden. The Bucks are undersized up front unless they choose to commit heavy minutes to John Henson, so they will have to choose between giving the 7-foot-3 Latvian a significant mismatch or playing a suboptimal lineup. Either way, expect Porzingis, who averaged 17 points and 14.5 rebounds per game in second halves of back-to-backs in November, to consistently exploit Milwaukee's defense regardless of who draws the unenviable task of trying to contain him.
Forward to Avoid:
Tristan Thompson, CLE vs. MIA ($24) - While his rebounding numbers have stayed consistent, Thompson's scoring has regressed back into the single digits since Timofey Mozgov rejoined the Cavaliers lineup. That level of production is in line with his season averages, but Thompson's average performances just aren't enough to live up to his price after it went up in Mozgov's absence. He is most valuable when the Cavaliers look to play small ball, which should be nigh impossible against a lineup that prominently features Hassan Whiteside and Chris Bosh. The Heat are a toxic matchup for Thompson.
Others to Avoid: Rudy Gay ($34), Tobias Harris ($28), Al-Farouq Aminu ($26), Marvin Williams ($24), Clint Capela ($16)
CENTER
Kosta Koufos, SAC at HOU ($16) - Koufos is expected to see a spike in minutes after fellow center Willie Cauley-Stein injured his finger Thursday against the Celtics. Koufos has seen 30 or more minutes twice this season, averaging 15 points, 11 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in those games. While his bump in playing time may fall a bit short of that threshold, those numbers should still give you an idea of what the 7-footer is capable of with extended run. Koufos' upside makes him well worth a look, especially against the third-worst scoring defense in the league.
Center to Avoid:
Jared Sullinger, BOS at SAS ($26) - Sullinger only played 14 minutes against the Kings on Thursday, as coach Brad Stevens opted against using him for defensive purposes. While a 39-year-old Tim Duncan is no DeMarcus Cousins, he and LaMarcus Aldridge are both good enough offensively to punish Sullinger. Even if Stevens decides to give Sullinger his full minutes, San Antonio's swarming top-ranked defense have given more talented offensive players nightmares. There are too many factors working against the Ohio State product to play him.
Others to Avoid: Greg Monroe ($34), Karl-Anthony Towns ($30)
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