This article is part of our The Prospect Post series.
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Jahlil Okafor will be the No. 1 pick in the draft. At least that's what everyone, including myself, has been saying all season long. It's probably true and I would still bet a hefty sum of money that the Duke center ends up being the first player selected. However, a challenger has emerged:
Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns has a non-zero chance of leaping Okafor.
In fact, I will wildly speculate that Towns has a 10 percent chance of being taken ahead of Okafor at this point. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay have a zero percent chance of going first, unless Okafor suffers a serious injury, because NBA history has told us that big men go ahead of even the most accomplished guards and forwards when the players are relatively close in talent. However, Towns and Okafor play the same position, so if a scout gives Towns the edge, that will mean he is No. 1 on that team's board.
Towns started the season a little slowly, but that was to be expected as a freshman playing on a team that went 10 players deep, where nobody was seeing the kind of run or
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Jahlil Okafor will be the No. 1 pick in the draft. At least that's what everyone, including myself, has been saying all season long. It's probably true and I would still bet a hefty sum of money that the Duke center ends up being the first player selected. However, a challenger has emerged:
Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns has a non-zero chance of leaping Okafor.
In fact, I will wildly speculate that Towns has a 10 percent chance of being taken ahead of Okafor at this point. D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay have a zero percent chance of going first, unless Okafor suffers a serious injury, because NBA history has told us that big men go ahead of even the most accomplished guards and forwards when the players are relatively close in talent. However, Towns and Okafor play the same position, so if a scout gives Towns the edge, that will mean he is No. 1 on that team's board.
Towns started the season a little slowly, but that was to be expected as a freshman playing on a team that went 10 players deep, where nobody was seeing the kind of run or touches that Okafor gets with Duke. But in his last three games against the best the SEC has to offer in Georgia, Florida and LSU, Towns averaged 15.3 points, 11.3 boards and two blocks while shooting 53 percent from the field and playing almost 30 minutes per game.
Here is how the top two big men in the draft measured out in 2014:
| 2014 Nike Hoop Summit | Height w/ shoes | Weight | Wingspan | Standing Reach |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlil Okafor | 6' 10.75" | 272 lbs. | 7' 5" | 9' 2.5" |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 7' 0" | 248 lbs. | 7' 3.5" | 9' 5" |
Weight is something Towns can add when he gets into the league, but it's clear that he has the height advantage on Okafor. Obviously if we bring skills into the equation, Okafor wins any comparison on the offensive end of the court, but Towns is making notable progress in recent games. Here are three things Towns has done recently:
The lob dunk is a play that Towns will be able to do until he's 40. He is a special athlete. The hook shot in the lane is something that he will always be able to get off, but it is not clear how consistent he can be with that move. If it becomes a regular part of his repertoire, then that will go a long way toward closing the gap between him and Okafor. The step back 20-footer is absurd, but the fact that he even attempted it suggests that it's something he can do in practice, even if we may not see his coaches approve of him attempting it in games with any kind of regularity.
Given his height and athleticism, and the fact that he probably doesn't view himself as the offensive force that Okafor is at this stage, the area where Towns should be focused on separating himself is on the defensive end. There's no reason he can't turn himself into a top-5 defensive center in the NBA, and there are few people who anticipate Okafor's defense to reach that level. Post moves and shooting are two areas where Towns should continue to improve, especially once he starts working with NBA coaches.
Towns and Okafor will be forever linked in the same way that LeBron James/Carmelo Anthony/Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul/Deron Williams, and Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker are connected. There is little doubt that Okafor will be more NBA ready in 2016, and he should win the rookie of the year award with ease. But three or four years down the road, Towns has a chance to catch, and perhaps surpass, Okafor as the top big man in this draft class.
