Yahoo will once again roll out contests that combine two games over two days, so youíll have a little extra time to manipulate Houston and Golden State candidates, as players will lock as the games happen.
None of the games in the Conference Finals have been close, and the double whammy for DFS players is that these blowouts have been alternating with abandon. The fantasy headache occurs when you put up scrubs for the wrong squad, although both the Rockets and Warriors played their bench in the final quarter Sunday. One thing is certain Ė the home teams have by and large enjoyed more success overall, and Iím inclined to adopt that philosophy when tackling this slate.
The usual set of suspects are in play at the top of our player list. I think both James Harden ($51) and Kevin Durant ($48) will deliver floors in the 40-45 YFP range, but itís going to be difficult to ignore LeBron James ($57) at home. While his price severely restricts the addition of more top-flight talent, heís producing ridiculous numbers that you canít replicate with any other player. If you are able to target the proper low-priced options, then LeBron is a great anchor.
Stephen Curry ($39) rebounded with a nice game Sunday, but his price hasnít jumped into the $40s, so I think youíre getting a great value at this price. If I can find a way to pair James with Curry and stay under the $200 cap, Iíll be a happy camper.
With the above picks in mind, weíll now target two players at each position and also pick a player to fade at each spot. When possible, Iíll highlight one low-cost option at each position.
Klay Thompson, GS vs. HOU ($24): All of the Golden State starters suffered from blowout-itis Sunday, but Thompson still managed to give us 25 minutes. He often lingers with the second unit while other starters take a breather so while no one is blowout-proof, Thompson offers huge upside below Yahooís median price.
Jaylen Brown, BOS at CLE ($22): I didnít wander down into the teens because one can find better bargains at forward. Even though Boston looked dreadful in Game 3, you have to assume that Brad Stevens has devised a way to combat the home court hex Cleveland cast on the Celtics. Youíve got bona fide talent all over this roster, but Brown possesses intangibles that arenít easily quantifiable unless youíre watching the series. Granted, it comes down to the numbers, but I think Stevens will open his tool box wide and give Brown more opportunities.
Other guards to consider: Chris Paul, HOU at GS ($35); George Hill, CLE vs. BOS ($11)
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GUARD TO AVOID
Terry Rozier, BOS at CLE ($30): Iím not against Rozier, but I wonít play him at this price anymore. We havenít seen him eclipse 30 YFP since Game 3 of the Philly series, and thatís not the kind of production we need for $30. Youíre squandering valuable dollars if you opt to take a chance here.
Jayson Tatum, BOS at CLE ($24): No one was fully immune to the beatdown given by the Cavs, but Tatum at least looked respectable. At a $6 discount over Al Horford, I think youíll be getting comparable output because while Horfordís role wonít deviate much, Brad Stevens will find new ways to get Tatum open and allow him more freedom outside.
Kevon Looney, GS vs. HOU ($10): When we get back to Houston I have no problem giving their budget guys a spin, but Looney appears to be the big guy thatís getting the most play in relief for the Warriors. While some people will look to Shaun Livingston or Quinn Cook as the low-cost Golden State picks, I think Looney has the highest floor and the best potential to put up a stat line thatís worth more than $10.
Other forwards to consider: Andre Iguodala, GS vs. HOU ($17)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Trevor Ariza, HOU at GS ($11): Both Ariza and P.J. Tucker have been yo-yoing up and down for most of the postseason and itís hard to predict which guy will come up short, but the numbers show that Ariza should only be considered as a GPP flier. His floor has been consistently lower than Tuckerís, and I donít think the Rockets will be able to make much head-way by looking here too often.
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Iíll highlight players in a slightly different way at this position. To put it plainly Ė this is not a spot to get cute. I understand that in order to get the picks above, you may want to go with a Tristan Thompson ($10) or Aron Baynes ($10), and though theyíve looked worthy of speculation of late (especially Baynes), I think youíre making a mistake if you donít opt for one of the big three here. Iím especially fond of Draymond Green ($33) at home. Clint Capela has struggled a bit against the Warriors so Iím less inclined to spend there, but for $2 cheaper I think Kevin Love ($31) will deliver comparable output to Green.
CENTER TO AVOID
Tristan Thompson, CLE vs. BOS ($10): If youíre determined to go low here, youíre better off with Baynes. I see the novelty of this pick, but itís one of those scenarios where you're simply firing him up and hoping for the best.