RotoWire Writers Mock Draft

A group of RotoWire basketball writers and some other fantasy experts gathered together Thursday to hold a mock draft on Mock Draft Central. Standard eight-category scoring rules applied (FG|PERCENT|, FT|PERCENT|, points, three-pointers, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks), no turnovers. We drafted based on the assumption that the league was for head-to-head competition.

Drafting right now is a messy endeavor thanks to the number of fluid roster situations throughout the NBA. Depth charts are a mess, and some teams like the Timberwolves, Jazz, Pistons, and Nets have only named about two of their starters far. Despite the mass confusion that is the NBA at this time, I think everyone did a great job sifting through the sludge of NBA roster hullabaloo to give a solid idea of the top 158 players we should all be grabbing in drafts this weekend.

I'm going to break this 14-round monster down round-by-round. It's a free-flowing endeavor. If I fail to specifically comment on a pick, it's probably because the pick was appropriately slotted and didn't require further explanation. Go ahead and target that guy there. As you'll see, I make no mention of Deron Williams in my breakdown of the first round. That's because he should get picked pretty much exactly where you see him. 

Round 1

Position Breakdown: PG-5, SG-2, SF-3, PF-1, C-1

The first round went pretty much as expected. Stephen Curry went where he should based on our projections, fourth. Dwight Howard may have gone a little early, but his value is helped out by the fact that we were drafting for a non-turnover, h-2-h league. Though it's hard to argue against most of the picks made here, I'm going to nitpick a little bit. Russell Westbrook went a couple spots too early, although, he'll probably end up with first-round value. Kevin Love is in contention with Curry as being the go-to fourth-overall pick behind the standard three kings of Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Chris Paul. Speaking of Paul, if anyone doubted his place in the top three this season, those doubts should be laid to rest knowing he'll be throwing hamburgers to a dunk-starved Blake Griffin/DeAndre Jordan combo this year. Paul could very well average a career-high in assists thanks to his move to the Clippers. Carmelo Anthony was one of the absolute best fantasy players after he was traded to Knicks last season. Long instructed to avoid shooting three-pointers by coach George Karl in Denver, Anthony was given carte blanche to fire-away from downtown under coach Mike D'Antoni in New York. In his 27 games as a Knick last season, Anthony buried two three-pointers per game on only 4.6 attempts. He shot a career-high 42 percent from downtown thanks to a little extra confidence from his coach. You'd think more long-range attempts would've hurt his overall field goal percentage, but he improved his shooting from a 45 percent mark with the Nuggets to a 46 percent mark with the Knicks. In addition to those improvements from last season, the Knicks plan to run their offense completely through Anthony due to their lack of a standout point guard on the roster. That could mean we see Anthony post career-high numbers in assists this season.

The only place the first round went a little awry was the pick of Kobe Bryant at the end. Bryant is a great fantasy player, but he's a better value at the end of the second round than the first. In regards to his knee issues, all reports are that the experimental procedure he underwent in Germany has him looking more than ready to be his usual dominant self this season.

Round-1 Lesson: Draft a sure-fire cornerstone, and don't overpay when there are genuine studs to pick at every draft slot.

Round 2

Position Breakdown: PG-1, SG-1, SF-2, PF-6, C-2

Nate swung back from his Kobe pick to grab the reigning finals MVP in Dirk Nowitzki. That's a solid pick at the end of the first or beginning of the second. His efficiency keeps him a top-ranked player, but his lack of luster in three-pointers, steals, or blocks makes me leery of Nowitziki's ability to maintain premier value if his scoring or efficiency were to drop at all. Pau Gasol remains the second best big man to draft in one-year leagues. Love is the only big man I'd draft before him right now, so I felt great when Gasol dropped to me in the second round. Blake Griffin has all the potential in the world, but his draft stock is bloated thanks to the hype machine surrounding him. His points, rebounds, and assists are amazing, but his free-throw shooting (64 percent) and lack of defensive stats (0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks) limits the reality of his value. I'm not overpaying for him in the second round, especially while Al Jefferson is still on the board. After the Deron Williams trade, the Jazz ran everything through Jefferson. He posted 23.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in 14 games last March. Those are numbers worthy of a first-round selection this year, so be happy if you can grab him in the second round. LaMarcus Aldridge's heart issue is a little concerning, but the fact that he only missed nine games in his rookie season due to the same issue makes me feel a little better. If he misses the same amount of time, that should mean Aldridge will be good to go by the time the season kicks off on Dec. 25. Al Horford's middling blocks make me avoid him this early in drafts. Much of his value comes from his percentages, a stat I'm typically not inclined to overpay for. It's my belief that it's imperative to target assists, steals, blocks, and bulk-points in drafts. Those are the hardest stats to find on the waiver wire during the season. Rebounds and three-pointers are always readily available, but seldom will a player emerge off the waiver wire and be a difference maker for your team in assists, steals, blocks, or points. You must draft those stats in bulk. In addition to that, while I don't drool over many players for their high percentages, I strongly loathe a great many players for their lack of efficiency. I'm looking at you Brandon Jennings. I berate that kid so heavily in our offices that I am proud to say that his draft stock in this mock can undoubtedly be attributed to my constant berating of his shooting and poor point guard play. Correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't checked the stats, but I don't believe Jennings has ever thrown the ball into Andrew Bogut on a pick-and-roll. Just saying, a rolling seven-footer is probably going to convert at a higher percentage than a chucking twig with an ugly shot. I better get back on track, otherwise I'll burn this whole write-up tearing down the Bucks' woeful roster.

Round 3

Position Breakdown: PG-4, SG-3, SF-0, PF-4, C-1

Speaking of overpaying for percentages, David Lee showed us the danger of doing such things last year. People were drafting him at the end of the first round last year, because his gaudy percentages in the 2009-10 season with the Knicks elevated his fantasy value exponentially. He's a great points and rebounds guy, but it's too important to get blocks out of your big men to burn an early draft pick on a big who doesn't help you there. I took Ty Lawson too early, because I let my love affair with him affect me in an unreasonable way. I should have grabbed Jrue Holiday in the the third and waited to see if Lawson would drop to me in the fourth. And that, my friends, is why we do mock drafts. John Wall will be great this year. He'll shoot a crap percentage from the field again, but his contributions in assists, steals, and points are too significant to pass up. Steve Nash faltered in the second half of last year due to a series of injuries limiting his ability to score efficiently from the field. While he's proven himself healthy in camp, the specter of father time looms like a dark cloud over the aging assist-man. For someone who was worthy of being drafted in the second round last year, Nash is a good value at the end of the third round. An even better value, though, is Rajon Rondo. He doesn't hit three-pointers, but Rondo's assist numbers are just as good as Nash's. And Rondo is one of the top steals men in the Association. With steals being a more rare commodity than three-pointers, I'd take Rondo over Nash in drafts this season. Some would contest that Rondo's poor free-throw shooting hurts his value too much to take him over Nash, but Rondo only takes 1.9 free-throw attempts per game, making the overall affect of his poor shooting at the line a somewhat nonissue. Kevin Martin played in 80 games last season. I'm convinced that the guy who beat me in my hometown league did so explicitly because Martin failed to get hurt. Can Martin go another whole season staying healthy? I'm too bitter about his three consecutive injury-riddled seasons to invest too high of a pick in him, but it's pretty darn good value getting him in the third round. 

Round 4

Position Breakdown: PG-3, SG-0, SF-3, PF-2, C-4

I love Holiday this season, but I've been a tad surprised by how high he was slotted in all the preseason ranks. Danilo Gallinari should be option 1 or 1-A with Ty Lawson in Denver's offense. The absence of Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton should level out the 19-player rotation Karl was running after the Carmelo Anthony trade. Marcin Gortat shoots a great percentage, scores, rebounds, and blocks shots. He's everything you want from a big man, and he's available in the fourth to sixth rounds of drafts right now, with the potential to provide even greater value. I reached on him here, but I didn't like my other options. Brook Lopez was brutal on the boards last season, and when he randomly walked past me in the Las Vegas airport this summer, I easily boxed him out his first class seat. He didn't even put up a fight. Serge Ibaka has been going early in a lot of drafts, so I was happy to see reason win here. The end of the fourth round is a great place to get him. If he averages over three blocks on the season, he'll end up with at least third-round value. Coach Frank Vogel's absurdly deep rotation down the stretch last season left a lot to be desired by anyone who owned a Pacer and hoped that the mid-season coaching change would help fix some of the fantasy issues with their roster. Unless the team is going to start running a pick-and-roll offense for Darren Collison, I don't see how he has anywhere near fourth-round value, especially with George Hill budging in on his minutes. Let Collison drop this season. 

Round 5

Position Breakdown: PG-0, SG-3, SF-3, PF-5, C-1

Andre Iguodala was a second- or third-round pick in drafts last season, and he somehow went undrafted until the fifth round. Love that pick. I don't know what to think about Andrea Bargnani this season after he had the yellow brick road opened to him by Chris Bosh's move to South Beach, and he decided to fall on his face instead of claiming the throne of Toronto as his own. Hopefully he finds his game and a chin this season. I'm a bit scared to draft him, but his potential to contribute big in points, threes, and blocks makes him oh-so-deliciously delicious. Joakim Noah is a big man. He rebounds and blocks shots. I love him. He plays with passion, and that means you never have to question whether he'll show up for a game like some chinless player like Bargnani. I've soured a little on James Harden since he announced that he expects to still be coming off the bench this season, but at the same time Harden made that announcement, coach Scott Brooks said that Kevin Durant would be playing more power forward this season. That should open up extra minutes for Harden at the three, so there remains room for him to grow this season. Lamar Odom will be productive on the Mavs, but I'm skeptical he'll get the same minutes he was getting in Los Angeles unless the Mavs are willing to play Odom and Nowitzki in the frontcourt together for extended stretches.

Round 6

Position Breakdown: PG-4, SG-3, SF-2, PF-0, C-3

The Jazz' fortunes this season rest firmly on Devin Harris' ability to rebound and assert himself as an aggressive point guard again, but I don't see him having sixth-round value this season. Jared Dudley has a great all-around game with stellar percentages. Joe Johnson's epic struggles in the second half of last season caused him to drop to the end of the sixth round. That seems a bit harsh for the once dominant shooting guard, but the only player I can argue he absolutely should have been drafted before in the sixth round is Nicolas Batum, whom is projected to have quite a nice season himself due to the retirement of Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez' departure.

Round 7

Position Breakdown: PG-2, SG-3, SF-0, PF-4, C-3

Kyrie Irving went a little earlier than where I'm targeting him, but one glance at the stats he put up in limited action with Kentucky last season illustrates the potential he has. I'm trying to grab him in any and every league I'm in this year. Ramon Sessions is no threat to Irving, and the Cavs amnestied Baron Davis earlier this week, making him a nonissue. With the Knicks' lack of depth, Tyson Chandler could play a career-high in minutes this season, which would lead to him possibly posting career-high numbers across the board. That doesn't mean I'm drafting him in the seventh round, but it's fun to fantasize about the possibilities for Chandler on a team like the Knicks.

Round 8

Position Breakdown: PG-3, SG-4, SF-0, PF-2, C-3

Marcus Thornton averaged 21.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.0 three-pointers, and 1.7 steals in 38 minutes per game after being sent to the Kings in a trade late last season. Those numbers are worthy of being drafted in the fourth round, and he's not being taken until around the eighth round right now. Paul George plans on being more assertive on offense this season, and he showed his increased aggression in the team's first preseason game Friday. I like him this year, but as I said earlier, I"m worried that all of the Pacers will have their value hurt by a deep rotation and limited minutes. Derrick Williams looked like he was going to be stuck playing short minutes behind Michael Beasley this season, but the T-Wolves announced Friday that they are planning on playing Williams mostly at the four and running Love at center a lot. Coach Rick Adelman doesn't appear to be a fan of Darko Millicic, so we could see Williams and Beasley playing with Love a lot. Rodney Stuckey still hasn't signed a contract, so I'm avoiding him until the later rounds. If DeAndre Jordan can stay out of foul trouble this season he'll get all the minutes he can handle in the Clippers' thin frontcourt.

Round 9

Position Breakdown: PG-5, SG-2, SF-2, PF-0, C-3

Andrei Kirilienko is in the same spot at Stuckey contractually, but we know he'll only sign with a team that has an open starting slot for him. This is good value here. I don't like D.J. Augustin and think Kemba Walker is going to be the man in Charlotte this season. The Knicks don't have any trade assets, and there aren't any special point guards available in free agency, so Toney Douglas should excel in the starting job all season. He led the league in converted three-pointers after the All-Star break last season. Ricky Rubio's shot has looked good in practice, but we'll see how far that stretches in games. With no other quality-upside point guards available at this point in the draft, I like taking a chance on Rubio here.  

Round 10

Position Breakdown: PG-1, SG-3, SF-4, PF-2, C-2

The Pistons waived Richard Hamilton, so Ben Gordon seems to be in line to start at shooting guard or at least play big minutes off the bench. Ed Davis looked like a solid grab coming into training camp, but coach Dwane Casey plans to bring him off the bench behind Bargnani and Amir Johnson, limiting the sophomore's potential. Markieff Morris became a threat to Channing Frye's starting spot the minute he was drafted. Yes, Frye can shot the three, but Morris is a better rebounder and more physical presence inside the arc. If the Suns decide they want to try and win, Morris should end up stealing a lot of Frye's minutes. I'm worried about how many touches Wes Johnson will get with this season, but the team's lack of quality depth at shooting guard should give him plenty of minutes. Rudy Fernandez will be huge if Arron Afflalo signs with someone other than Denver.

Round 11

Position Breakdown: PG-2, SG-4, SF-2, PF-3, C-1

Andre Miller is as consistent as they come, but I don't see him playing enough minutes to be relevant in standard leagues this season unless Ty Lawson gets injured.

Round 12

Position Breakdown: PG-4, SG-2, SF-3, PF-2, C-1

Derrick Favors has been getting rave reviews from his coaches and teammates in camp, and we're starting to get overly excited about his potential this season. He started blocking shots consistently at the end of his rookie season.

Round 13

Position Breakdown: PG-3, SG-2, SF-1, PF-4, C-2

J.J. Hickson's value is tied directly to Chuck Hayes' health. Depending on the results of the tests they were running on Hayes' heart, Hickson could be in line to play a lot of minutes. Timofey Mozgov is slated to be the starting center in Denver this season. If he wins that role, he could be a great grab at the end of drafts.

Round 14

Position Breakdown: PG-2, SG-2, SF-4, PF-3, C-1

Shawne Williams signed with the Nets. If they don't sign anymore big men, he could be their starting power forward all season. Austin Daye struggled in the first half of Friday's preseason opener, but he finished the game with 18 points, three three-pointers, and five blocks. That's some nasty potential. Those are Bargnani numbers in the 14th round. I'm buying, but it's worth noting that Tayshaun Prince was not playing in the game. Reggie Williams was my dark horse sleeper pick to finish the draft, but not 20 minutes after we finished, it was announced he'll miss the next eight weeks with a knee injury.

In retrospect, I botched this draft in some respects. Love and Gasol put up good assists, but only drafting two point guards would likely keep me from winning the assists category most weeks.

If you've ever got lineup questions or want to throw your two cents my way, find me on twitter. @RotoWireKyleNBA

Cheers,

Kyle