This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Another loaded conference slate awaits Saturday. The main/early slate has 12 identical games across sites, while DraftKings have added Texas A&M and South Carolina for some minor diversity. The top options salary-wise don't stand out so to me, so this slate sets up for more balance than a studs-and-duds lineup. Scoring totals suggest points will be at more of a premium Saturday afternoon than they will be in the evening.
Jordan Murphy, F, Minnesota ($8,500 FD, ($9,600 DK): The most expensive option at FD, and second most at DK, you're paying for upside in Murphy as his scoring history is a roller coaster of outings with 25 or so fantasy points, with 40-50 point games sprinkled in. There's no clear pace or game total boost in this matchup, so personally, I'm looking to save a little and stay clear of Murphy against the Hoosiers. But he did average 15 points and 10 boards against them in two meetings last year, suggesting a more stable floor than his game log may suggest.
Alpha Diallo, G, Providence ($8,300 FD, $9,700 DK): In building around Diallo, you're building around stability. He's averaged 29.6 FDP and 34.9 DKP during league play, going no lower than 22.4 and 26.5 across the two sites. He's also had only one game over 36 points between the two, and may be a bit more suited for cash lineups than GPPs as a result. Coming off a down outing at Villanova, and having scored only 11 points against Xavier earlier in the year, Diallo undoubtedly will look to atone for those transgressions Saturday.
John Mooney, F, Notre Dame ($7,900, $9,400 DK): Mooney lands here just to show the price disparity across sites. He appears to have hit a wall, averaging just 25.4 FDP and 30.8 DKP across his last five games. That includes 21.0/31.5 against UVA on January 26. He's far too expensive at DK, and just looks like a deep contrarian GPP play at FD based on current form in what couldn't be a worse matchup.
Jarrett Culver, G, Texas Tech ($7,400 FD, $9,700 DK): Culver is in the same vein as Mooney, overpriced at DK given his current form, but suddenly looking like a bargain at FD. He's put up just 19.4 FDP over his last six, largely due to 8-of-28 shooting from three-point range. Volume hasn't been a problem however, so he could be due to return to his usual form. He was good for 36.3 FDP against Baylor on January 19.
Michael Devoe, G, Georgia Tech ($7,100 FD, $5,800 DK): Devoe is obviously more attractive at Draft Kings, where he's put up 38.8 and 44.0 points across his last two outings. He's pulled down five or more boards in four of the last five games, scored 10 or more in five of seven and taken at least 10 shots in five of six, so Devoe's floor may be more stable than one would initially think. The matchup against FSU isn't ideal (132 o/u), but Devoe's minutes and volume don't appear at risk.
Devonte Bandoo, G, Baylor ($5,700 FD, $4,300 DK): Bandoo has seen increased run over the last two games with King McClure sidelined, scoring 19 and 15 points while averaging 33.5 minutes. McClure figures to be limited at best Saturday, setting Bandoo up for continued opportunities.
Games/Teams to Target
North Carolina (-17) at Wake Forest o/u 156, 12:00 p.m. ET: The Tar Heels offensive prowess is well known, but we'll remind you that they rank ninth in offensive efficiency and fifth in adjusted tempo. Luke Maye ($8,400 FD, $8,300 DK) was stifled by the Cavaliers on Monday, but had averaged 36.3 FD points and 42.4 DK points in his previous three outings. He's particularly appealing at DK as just the sixth-priciest forward. Coby White ($8,100 FD, $7,600 DK) hasn't shown the ceiling of Maye over his last five games but figures to thrive in transition here. Cameron Johnson ($7,800 both sites) has been brilliant away from home, going for at least 24.5 FDP in three of four and at least 34.8 DKP in every outing. On the value side for the Heels, Garrison Brooks ($6,000 FD, $5,400 DK) should be good for at least 20 points across sites, and Brandon Robinson ($3,800 FD, $3,300) could offer something at big time savings. He saw extended time Monday with Nassir Little hurt, a trend that can continue here both due to Little's gimpy ankle, and the potential for this game to be a blowout. On the other side, Wake Forest boasts a three-headed monster of Brandon Childress ($7,200 FD, $7,700 DK), Jaylen Hoard ($7,400 FD, $7,600 DK) and Chaundee Brown ($5,900 FD, $5,200 DK). North Carolina has shown they are happy to give up points so long as they score more, having allowed 80 or more four times in conference play. Brown has scored 38 points in his last two, and looks like a cheaper buy in against the Heels, particularly at DK.
Auburn (-9) at Vanderbilt, o/u 149.5, 12:00 p.m. ET: Truthfully, I don't love this total, and it's worth noting that Vandy games have hit the under in three straight, while Auburn has gone under in four straight. But there are more games on the docket with a sub-135 total than there are greater than 140, so here we are. The Tigers' Chuma Okeke ($7,900 FD, $7,400 DK) is your cash game play here, and if we're buying into the high-scoring prediction, Saben Lee ($7,100 FD, $6,900 DK) immediately comes into play with 35-plus fantasy point potential. There's not a lot to roll the dice on in the middle tier however. Commodore freshmen Aaron Nesmith ($6,200 on both sites) has shown occasional upside while Simi Shittu ($6,200 FD, $6,500 DK) has a lower floor and ceiling. The Tigers' Horace Spencer ($4,500 FD and DK) and Vandy's Clevon Brown ($4,200 FD, $3,700 DK) bring you salary relief options who could flirt with 15 fantasy points if the game's flow is high.
Games/Teams to Avoid
Notre Dame at Virginia (-19), o/u 124, 2:00 pm ET: The total here initially posted at 129.5, and promptly fell 5.5 points. That speaks volumes as to what's ahead for the Irish, who already lost 82-55 to Virginia earlier in the year. The Cavaliers' big three of DeAndre Hunter ($7,800 FD, $6,900 DK), Kyle Guy ($6,400 FD, $6,700 DK) and Ty Jerome ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK) are usually stable options, but with a quick turnaround and a Monday game at Virginia Tech looming, they could see a minor reduction in minutes. The spread, paired with the low total, has Virginia projected as roughly a 71-52 winner, taking all Irish players out of consideration and capping any upside the Cavaliers may have in a likely rout.
Grant Williams, F, Tennessee ($8,800 FD, $9,600 DK): Williams is in a bit of a funk of late, having not topped 16 points in his last three outings. That's resulted in a three-game high of 36.3 FDP, and that only thanks to a season-high seven assists his last time out. This game could easily evolve into a duel between Williams and P.J. Washington, and Williams' stable floor comes with immense upside. He could be a bit overlooked in this slate given the options around him and his current form.
Robert Franks, F, Washington State ($8,700 FD, $9,900 DK): Franks has dumped in 65 points and 21 boards in his last two games, and has been kept under 19 points just once in his last eight outings. He's shown Zion-esque upside at a reduced price, and comes with a stable floor as well, putting up 19.0 points and 10.5 rebounds in two meetings with Washington last season.
Tremont Waters, G, LSU ($8,600 FD, $9,100): Waters is in a prime spot to make managers forget about the dud he put up at Kentucky last time out. He put up 99.9 combined FDP in the two games prior, and went for 43.6 FDP in a previous matchup against Georgia, a contest that finished 92-82. There's little reason to think the pace will slow dramatically here.
Miles Parks Jr., F, Memphis ($4,400 FD, $4,000 DK): When Parks plays, he produces. The problem is predicting when he'll see stable minutes. He's played 28, 12, 28, 9, 8, and 19 across his last six games, going for at least 18.8 FDP in the three games he played the most. One of those came against UCF, where he posted 13 point and eight boards.
Parker Van Dyke, G, Utah ($5,900 FD, $4,400 DK): A removal from the starting lineup appears to have been the spark that Van Dyke needed. In his last three outings, he's averaged 21.5 FDP/24.5 DKP, numbers he hasn't flirted with since a January 3 outing against Arizona State, conveniently Saturday's opponent. The Sun Devils come in with an adjusted tempo ranking of 41, giving all Utes a slight boost, as does the game's 152 o/u.
Games/Teams to Target
Iowa (-4) at Rutgers, o/u 148.5, 6:00 p.m. ET: I admittedly did a double take at this total, and while it's not super high, it's a beyond solid number that seemingly gets a boost due to the Hawkeyes' moderate 65th-ranked tempo and 115th-ranked defensive efficiency. Iowa's Tyler Cook ($8,000 FD, $8,100 DK) is by far the most stable choice, but teammate Joe Wieskamp ($6,200 FD and DK) is in good form and not hindered by a back injury any longer. He's a great second-tier option to me. Isaiah Moss ($5,700 FD, $5,200 DK) is the GPP target for the Hawkeyes thanks to his feast or famine nature. While we're talking boom or bust, Rutgers guard Caleb McConnell ($4,800 FD, $3,800 DK) jumps out. He's had a 40-plus fantasy point night and a 27-plus point night across both sites in his last four outings. Geo Baker ($7,000 FD, $6,700 DK) is my preferred Scarlet Knight for stability.
Mississippi State (-1.5) at Arkansas, o/u 150.5, 8:30 p.m. ET: LSU/UGA is the obvious SEC target with a 155 o/u, but this game isn't far behind, and may have more depth and value plays to offer. Quinndary Weatherspoon ($8,200 FD, $7,800 DK) and Daniel Gafford ($8,200) bring the star power, but MSU's Reggie Perry ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK) has three double-doubles in his last four games. Teammate Robert Woodward ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK) has been chipping in across the board and can see that continue here. The Hawgs' deep backcourt isn't usually fantasy friendly, so if you're looking to get in on that side, going as cheap as possible with Jalen Harris ($6,100 FD, $5,600 DK) makes sense, as he's gone for at least 18 DKP in seven of his last eight games.
NC State at Duke (-17), o/u 159, 6:00 p.m. ET: Targeting this one is very obvious. Every time Duke's high-priced duo of Zion Williamson ($9,800 FD, $11,200 DK) and R.J. Barrett ($8,900 FD, $10,000 DK) are on a slate, you have to decide whether to feature or fade one or both. Barrett looks poised for a bounce-back game, while Zion is Zion. Cam Reddish ($7,500 FD, $6,800 DK) is on a nice roll, while the Wolfpack's depth is slightly down due to some recent illnesses and suspension. They'll run with the Blue Devils though, and have four rotational players at $6,000 or less as cheap options regardless of site.
Games/Teams to Avoid
Northwestern at Nebraska (-5.5), o/u 129.5, 8:30 p.m. ET: This slate, unlike the early docket, is loaded with 140+ over/unders. And then there's this. Northwestern has lost five straight games, going under the total in four of those, while Nebraska has lost seven of eight, going under the mark six times. With four players combined checking in at $7,700 or more at FD, and $7,200 at DK, there just doesn't appear to be enough upside to warrant a contrarian play. There's more upside on the rosters of DePaul, Temple, Washington and even Duke for that price, and there's a steep drop off in secondary options here.