DFS College Basketball: Sunday Sweet 16 Preview

DFS College Basketball: Sunday Sweet 16 Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

The foundation for Sunday's DFS lineups must be laid with the Creighton/Gonzaga matchup, as its over/under is 13 points higher than any other contest in the four-game slate.

Targets

1. Drew Timme, F, Gonzaga ($8,200 DK, $8,400 FD)

We led off by highlighting the projected point totals in this game, so it makes sense we start the targets with the hottest player. Timme has reached double figures in every game of the 2021 calendar year, which included a 30-point, 13-rebound effort against Oklahoma in the Round of 32. While Christian Bishop has been effective lately for Creighton, Timme has a three-inch height advantage, and I believe he'll have his way in the post. Creighton ranks No. 259 in offensive rebounding rate and No. 190 on the defensive side, so Timme and the Zags should be able to clean up on the glass as well. For similar reasons, I really like Joel Ayayi ($7,100 DK) in this matchup. He's a cheaper option with a safe floor great for cash games.

2. Mitch Ballock ($5,300 DK, $5,200 FD) / Denzel Mahoney ($4,700 DK, $5,000 FD), Creighton

Sure, Gonzaga is a top-10 defense in the country (per KenPom). The Bulldogs also happen to play at the fourth-fastest pace among all 357 D1 teams, which helps explain the high over/under. If there is any weakness on the defensive side it would be on the perimeter (ranked No. 101 in three-point FG defense), and that's exactly what Creighton does best. Barring a blowout, Ballock and Mahoney are both seeing 30+ minutes and will get up plenty of outside shots. When filling out your lineup and looking to salary relief, this is undoubtedly the game to do it in.

3. M.J. Walker, G, Florida State ($4,900 DK, $4,600 FD)

It was really tough to find good plays outside of the Gonzaga/Creighton game, but you need some spots to fill out your lineup, so here we are. Walker is one of four Florida State regulars with a usage rate above 22 percent, plus the senior is a pretty safe bet to see 30+ minutes, which has been the case in both NCAA Tournament games so far. Michigan has an incredible defense, but there's a disparity between two-point and three-point baskets. While the Wolverines are holding opponents to the third-lowest FG percentage on two-pointers in the nation, they are outside the top-100 in three-point FG defense. Walker happens to be the team leader in three-pointers made (44), making them at a strong success rate of 43.6 percent. FSU will need his outside shooting to keep this game close.

Fades

1.Evan Mobley, F, USC ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD)

When the slate is only four games, Mobley is firmly still in the player pool. But for those not mass entering, the choice will often come down to Mobley vs. Drew Timme. Timme plays in a game with an over/under 20 points higher, plus gets a weak rebounding team to attack. While Oregon's rebounding and two-point FG defense isn't necessarily leaps and bounds better, Dana Altman and company did find a way to shut down Mobley in an earlier meeting, and it didn't hinge on fouls. Mobley logged 34 minutes in that contest, collecting 11 points and five rebounds with zero blocked shots. Far from the typical Mobley performance – an effort that won't cut it at this price point.

2. Eugene Omoruyi, F, Oregon ($7,600 DK, $7,800 FD)

On the flip side of this game with the lowest over/under, I have no interest in Oregon post options. The Mobley brothers anchor a USC defense that limits opponents to the lowest two-point FG percentage in the country, and is the No. 5 overall unit (per KenPom). Omoruyi had just 15.8 DK points the last time he took on the Mobley brothers – his lowest of an 11-game stretch and second-lowest total of the entire season. 

3. Johnny Juzang, G, UCLA ($7,400 DK, $6,100 FD)

At first glance, Juzang appears to be in play because he'll be competing in the game with the day's second-highest over/under against a team with the 11th-fastest tempo in the country. Just don't forget that Alabama also has the third-most efficient defense, per KenPom. I learned early in the DFS season to not be too tempted by the pace and target this matchup, as Alabama has lengthy defenders on all parts of the court, led by SEC Defensive Player of the Year Herb Jones. The tide also have a top-10 opponent three-point shooting percentage rate. While Juzang's high usage may make this fade backfire, I'm betting he struggles to get 4x here at his highest price point in over a month (on DraftKings, at least – he's reasonable enough on FanDuel).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jake Letarski plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotojakeski, DraftKings: RotoJakeSki.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jake Letarski
RotoWire Editor for College Basketball and MMA. Frequent podcaster, plus radio and video guest. Follow Jake on Twitter at @RotoJake.
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