An All-Texas battle in the Final Four features two hungry squads that ended long droughts for their respective programs. Baylor returns to the Final Four for the first time in over 70 years; meanwhile, Houston gets back for the first time since the end of Phi Slama Jama's run in 1984.
The Bears were one of the two best teams in all of college basketball this season along with Gonzaga, and they imposed their will on the opposition during their run to the Final Four, winning every contest by nine points or more. By contrast, the Cougars eked out a couple of low scoring affairs, including scoring the final 13 points of their Second Round win over Rutgers and outlasting a furious comeback by Oregon State on the Elite 8.
This matchup will be a clash of styles. The Cougars allowed the second-fewest points per game in the NCAA this season at 57.5 per contest. Meanwhile, Baylor averaged 83.0 points per contest this year, which was 11th in the nation.
Baylor Bears, South Region No. 1 seed
Backcourt: The guards are undoubtedly the strength of this squad. The Bears are led by Big 12 Player of the Year Jared Butler, a versatile, all-purpose guard. However, Davion Mitchell may be the team's most important player. The Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year is no slouch on the offensive side of the floor either, leading the conference in three-point percentage, pacing the Bears in assists while also possessing an uncanny
An All-Texas battle in the Final Four features two hungry squads that ended long droughts for their respective programs. Baylor returns to the Final Four for the first time in over 70 years; meanwhile, Houston gets back for the first time since the end of Phi Slama Jama's run in 1984.
The Bears were one of the two best teams in all of college basketball this season along with Gonzaga, and they imposed their will on the opposition during their run to the Final Four, winning every contest by nine points or more. By contrast, the Cougars eked out a couple of low scoring affairs, including scoring the final 13 points of their Second Round win over Rutgers and outlasting a furious comeback by Oregon State on the Elite 8.
This matchup will be a clash of styles. The Cougars allowed the second-fewest points per game in the NCAA this season at 57.5 per contest. Meanwhile, Baylor averaged 83.0 points per contest this year, which was 11th in the nation.
Baylor Bears, South Region No. 1 seed
Backcourt: The guards are undoubtedly the strength of this squad. The Bears are led by Big 12 Player of the Year Jared Butler, a versatile, all-purpose guard. However, Davion Mitchell may be the team's most important player. The Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year is no slouch on the offensive side of the floor either, leading the conference in three-point percentage, pacing the Bears in assists while also possessing an uncanny ability to get to the basket. MaCio Teague rounds out the high-octane trio; Teague led all scorers with 22 points in the Elite 8 triumph over Arkansas.
Frontcourt: Baylor's frontcourt has been underrated this season, as the forwards are often overshadowed by the star players in the backcourt. Mark Vital is undersized at 6-5, but has a wide body and knows how to use it to control the boards. The Bears rotate between Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua at the other forward position. Tchamwa Tchatchoua is a high-energy big man who had his best game of the tournament versus Arkansas, accumulating eight points, six rebounds and a block.
X-Factor: Bench play. Leading rebounder Mark Vital battled foul trouble the entire game in the Elite 8 versus Arkansas, but the bench mob more than picked up the slack. Junior Matthew Meyer has been a unique weapon for the Bears. At 6-9, he has the size to rebound and mix it up down low, but also has a sweet shooting stroke and can provide instant offense off the bench as well. Meyer had a game-high 17 points in the Second Round victory over Wisconsin. The aforementioned Tchamwa Tchatchoua is another fresh body who provides a spark and is not afraid to do the dirty work. If any of the guards need a breather, sophomore Adam Flagler is more than capable of filling the void. Flagler has scored in double figures in three of Baylor's four tourney contests, and is 8-for-12 from three-point range over that span. If there is little to no drop off when the bench players enter the game for the Bears, the opposition is likely in big trouble.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
No. 16 Hartford, 79-55
No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63
No. 5 Villanova, 62-51
No. 3 Arkansas, 81-72
They'll Win If: they continue to defend at a high level. The defensive effort has been particularly impressive from Baylor, a team known more for its offensive prowess. The Bears allowed 65.5 points per contest leading up to the NCAA Tournament. In the big dance, they have stiffened, allowing just 60.3 points per tilt. It was defense, and not offense, which carried Baylor in its Sweet 16 win over Villanova. The Bears collected eight steals, swatted five shots and forced 16 turnovers by the Wildcats, as Baylor held Villanova to a season-low 51 points. In four tournament contests, the Bears have forced a staggering 69 turnovers. Even against a stout defensive unit of Houston, the Bears will be able to get buckets. The question will be whether they can stop Houston's own triumvirate of terrific guards in the form of DeJon Jarreau, Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser. Houston is averaging less than 10 turnovers per game during the NCAA Tournament. Something has got to give.
PREDICTION
Both schools are led by their guard play, and the matchup of three-guard sets could be one for the ages. The contrast in tempo and style of play will be fascinating to watch. Houston may have a Herculean task in stopping the freight train that is the Baylor offense; the Bears led the nation in three-point shooting percentage, but all three of their guards can also get to the rim. Houston has not allowed more than 61 points in any tournament contest; Baylor has not been held under 61 points. In fact, the Bears scored at least 76 points in three of their four wins. While defense wins championships, the Bears have too many clutch shot makers to be held entirely in check. The game will be close, and probably more towards the pace of Houston's liking, but the Baylor Bears will ultimately prevail.
-Jesse Siegel
Houston Cougars, Midwest Region No. 2 Seed
Is there a bigger mystery left in the tournament than the Cougars? Houston has had by far the easiest path to get to the Final Four, having yet to play a single-digit seed. Its regular season schedule doesn't make Houston much easier to decipher, as the only other team in its conference that made the tournament was Wichita State, who lost in a play-in game. The best win on their resume is an early season double-digit victory over six-seed Texas Tech, who narrowly lost in the second round to Alabama.
Backcourt: Houston relies on its guards more than any team still left in the tournament and Marcus Sasser, DeJon Jarreau and Quentin Grimes form a formidable trio. Jarreau is still not back to full strength after a hip pointer caused him to play just one minute in the round of 64, and his efficiency has clearly been affected, as he shot 7-of-21 from the field over the last two games. He's managed to do a great job facilitating the offense, however, and Grimes has been the most consistent option with 18 ppg since the start of the tournament.
Frontcourt: The frontcourt is led by AAC Defensive Player of the Year Justin Gorham, who plays a large role in the Cougars allowing less than 56 ppg through four tournament games thus far. Reggie Chaney completes the starting lineup, and it will mix in Fabian White and Brison Gresham off the bench with all three seeing similar playing time. Although none of them are over 6-8, they've been able to keep a variety of post players in check this postseason and rank fifth in the country in two-point percentage defense. None of them have been a significant contributor offensively, as the frontcourt is accounting for only 17 percent of the team's points over the last three games.
X-Factor: Gorham. Although he's played a limited role offensively with only a 16 percent usage rate this season, he's been an effective 54 percent shooter from inside the arc and has been able to get to the free throw line more frequently since the start of the conference tournament. With Jarreau being less efficient recently, Houston will need someone else to step up. Gorham should have opportunities against a Baylor squad that hasn't been particularly great at defending the interior.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
No. 15 Cleveland State 87-56
No. 10 Rutgers 63-60
No. 11 Syracuse 62-46
No. 12 Oregon St. 67-61
They'll Win If: They're able to hold Davion Mitchell in check. Jared Butler may be the team's leading scorer, but Mitchell has been the best player for Baylor during the NCAA Tournament. Two of his worst games this year have come in their losses where Mitchell was held to 13 points in both games on only 39 percent shooting. The Bears are also heavily reliant on the three as it lead the country in three-point shooting at 41.1 percent. Something will have to give as Houston is only allowing six made threes per game since the start of the tournament, including holding red-hot Buddy Boeheim to 1-of-9 from long-range.
PREDICTION
Houston's offensive efficiency has taken a step back over its last three tournaments games, averaging 1.03 points per possession, down from 1.17 in its previous 27 games. A healthy Jarreau would give them a realistic chance at pulling off the upset, but without that being the case, it's going to be a tall task for them to hang with a Baylor team for 40 minutes that has more NBA level talent and overall depth. I expect Houston's defense to keep them within reach for most of the game, with Baylor ultimately pulling away late for a 70-63 victory.
-Ryan Pohle
