2 Villanova Wildcats (-15.5) (-110) vs 15 Delaware Blue Hens
2:45pm ET @ Pittsburgh, PA
Very quietly, Villanova has flown under the radar this year. With all the talk of Gonzaga and Kentucky and Kansas and Coach K, Nova remains as dangerous as any of them. As long as Collin Gillespie is running the show, the Wildcats will have a chance in every game, and for the first two rounds, they get to play down I-76 in their home state. Nova doesn't fit the profile of a team ripe for an upset with zero losses against teams ranked above the Kenpom top-100 this year (Delaware is No. 145). My first inclination when evaluating this game is "Villanova is really good but doesn't blow teams out". Wrong. In the 7 games the Wildcats played against teams in the Kenpom 100-199 range, they are 7-0 with an AVERAGE margin of victory of 20.8. Big East teams are on a 21-8 ATS run as favorites in the NCAA Tournament, including 18-5 ATS when favored against non-major conference teams. The Blue Hens are in for a long day.
7 USC Trojans vs 10 Miami Hurricanes (UNDER 139) (-105)
3:10pm ET @ Greenville, SC
This one is a pretty easy handicap for me. USC is a defensive-minded team that thrives on size and rebounding, and Miami is an inefficient team that found success in a conference that plays zero defense. Andy Enfield has been a tremendous NCAA Tourney coach and will have his team ready to dictate the tempo. Since 2003, ACC/Pac-12 tourney matchups are 12-3-1 to the under, and I think that trend fits nicely in this contest.
10 Davidson Wildcats (+1) (-115) vs 7 Michigan St. Spartans
9:40pm ET @ Greenville, SC
I will openly profess my love for Tom Izzo to anyone that will listen. The man is a master and knows how to maximize his team in the always-tough Big 10. However, the "Izzo in March" narrative is a bit of a myth. This team is not a vintage MSU squad ,and their struggles start at PG, which is arguably the most important position on an Izzo team. As great as Izzo is, he doesn't have a huge coaching advantage here. Davidson's Bob McKillop has been doing this a long time, and this is his best team since the 2008 squad led by some dude named Steph Curry. The Wildcats are an elite offensive squad (No. 11 in Kenpom's adjusted offensive efficiency) with size and shooting at every position. Speaking of PGs, Davidson's Foster Loyer is a transfer from…….Michigan St. That's juicy. Plus, Davidson has a short trip to Greenville where they will be well-represented.
9 TCU Horned Frogs (PK) (-110) vs 8 Seton Hall Pirates
9:57pm ET @ San Diego, CA
Despite a very pedestrian-looking 20-12 record, TCU did enough within the meatgrinder that is the Big 12 to earn a tournament berth. TCU is well-coached, wins with defense and is the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in the country. Outside of, oddly, being Villanova and UCONN's kryptonite, the Hall has done very little to distinguish itself in a down Big East. They are a poor offensive and rebounding team, which plays right into the strengths of TCU. This line surprised me, and TCU is one of my favorite bets of the opening round.
