This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Miami at Virginia - Over 127½
Unlike past seasons, Virginia's defense is not elite. Not even close. Since conference season started, the Cavaliers rank ninth in the ACC in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. This is great news for the Hurricanes, who currently boast the top offensive efficiency rating in conference play. Miami went on the road and defeated the ACC's best defensive team, Duke, 76-74, proving that the Hurricanes can score on even the best teams. Considering Miami's offensive prowess, I might consider taking the points, but I don't trust its defense. Miami is arguably the worst rebounding team in the ACC, recording the lowest defensive rebounding rate and second-lowest offensive rebounding rate against conference opponents. Miami also allows ACC opponents to make 54 percent on two-point attempts, the third-highest rate in the conference. Virginia isn't awful on offense, though it's not great either, ranking in the middle of the ACC in offensive efficiency. Considering Miami's defensive shortcomings, and the fact that Virginia is at home, expect Virginia and Miami to trade baskets in a close game and hit the over.
Duke at North Carolina - Under 151
It looks like we have a defensive battle on our hands. Since conference season started, Duke has posted the top defensive efficiency rating in the ACC, with North Carolina not far behind, ranking third. Additionally, the Blue Devils' defense also ranks No. 1 in the conference in effective field-goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate and three-point percentage. Both Duke and North Carolina also rank top 3 in the ACC in two-point field-goal percentage allowed, further ensuring the points won't come easy. This rivalry is always intense, so expect both teams to max out on the defensive end. It's possible this game turns into a shootout, but I trust defense will ultimately be the deciding factor.
Oregon -3 at Utah
Oregon has the second-best offense in the Pac-12 in conference play, per KenPom, and it faces a Utah defense that ranks third lowest. Oregon's defense has stepped up during conference play, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency. This likely will pose a challenge for Utah, as the Utes' offense is ranked eighth in the Pac-12 during conference play. Overall, Oregon is the better team, winning seven of its last eight conference games, including road wins against UCLA and USC. Utah, meanwhile, has gone in the other direction, losing 10 of its last 11 conference games. There's always a chance the home dog pulls off the upset, but it's hard to overlook that these two teams are on completely different levels. I'll gladly take the Ducks.
UCLA at Arizona State - Under 132½
Arizona State's offense is horrendous. Its offensive efficiency rating is last in the Pac-12, by a mile. The Sun Devils have scored less than 58 points in three consecutive games and five of their last seven. The offensive challenges won't get any easier, as UCLA is coming to town, bringing the ninth-ranked defense in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Given this lopsided matchup, we likely can count on the Sun Devils' offense to keep the under in line. Arizona State is a bit more respectable defensively, ranking sixth in the Pac-12 during conference play. And although they lost both games, the Sun Devils recently held both Arizona and USC to less than 68 points in their most recent games. UCLA's offense is proficient, though it operates at a more methodical tempo and has struggled scoring on the road this season, putting up just 60 points at Cal and 63 at Utah. Based on this matchup, it wouldn't be surprising if the winning team doesn't reach 65 points.
