This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The rare Friday power conference matchups are set to take the stage in college basketball, and Steve Peralta has three more best bets to consider for the evening.
Wake Forest at 
Clemson
When looking at overall profiles, these teams are incredibly even. Clemson ranks No. 63 in overall efficiency, with Wake Forest not far behind at No. 69. On offense, Clemson comes in at No. 44, Wake Forest at No. 47. Similar story on defense, Clemson at No. 83 and Wake Forest at No. 98. Not much separates these two, but a deeper look reveals some advantages.
First off, Clemson hardly ever turns the ball over, ranking No. 25 among all D1 teams in offensive turnover rate. Wake Forest, on the other hand, typically turns it over as much as any other average D1 team, and it's playing on the road in this one, so we can reasonably project that Clemson will win the turnover battle.
Furthermore, while both teams are great at long-range shooting, Clemson takes the edge in this category as well. The Tigers are making 40 percent of their three-point attempts as a team, the 20th-highest percentage in the country. With Clemson, you get a total team effort, not only do the Tigers rank No. 38 in assist rate per made field goals, but they also have three different players making over 43 percent of three-point shots on at least 33 attempts.
This game likely comes down to the last several possessions, and in that scenario, I prefer the team is far less likely to turn the ball over and more likely to make a big shot. I'll take the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Clemson -3
Pittsburgh at NC State
Pittsburgh is riding high after somehow collecting a Quad 1 win at Northwestern in its most recent game (per KenPom's current standings), but don't let one single outcome fool you. Pittsburgh still has a lot to prove. In the afterglow of their big victory, the Panthers currently rank No. 91 in KenPom's overall efficiency standings, but this would actually mark the best ranking for Pittsburgh since 2017 if the season ended today. It's hard to imagine they don't dip as the season goes on, especially considering the fact that they've already been tested earlier in the season and failed each time. In fact, earlier this season, Pittsburgh faced two teams that have offensive attacks that rank top-40 in adjusted efficiency, and the Panthers got demolished both times, at home to West Virginia, 81-56, and then losing to Michigan, 91-60. These are notable outcomes because Pittsburgh's opponent in today's game also ranks top-40 on offense.
NC State wins games with its offense, ranking No. 34 in adjusted efficiency, but its defense has proven it's capable of getting the job done as well. Against Dayton and Butler, two teams that have similar offensive efficiency numbers, albeit slightly lower than Pittsburgh, the Wolfpack held each team to under 65 points, while putting up 76 points in both efforts. A similar performance in today's game would score a cover in addition to a victory.
Pittsburgh looks a little better after taking down Northwestern, but it's still difficult to buy the Panthers' stock long-term. Northwestern's offense pales in comparison to NC State's, with the former ranked at No. 174, so Pittsburgh is about to encounter a substantially more difficult challenge. NC State has a long and consistent track record of offensive excellence under coach Kevin Keatts, ranking top-64 in offensive efficiency every year since he joined the team in 2018. All things considered, it's hard not to buy the home team, even with a larger line. I like the Wolfpack in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: NC State -9.5
Gonzaga vs 
Baylor
If you love offense, one might argue this is the best matchup of the season. According to KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings, here we have the number one offensive team in the land, Gonzaga, taking on the number two offensive team, Baylor, at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Neither team is particularly great at defense, although Gonzaga enters the game slightly better at No. 51 compared to No. 77 for Baylor. That being said, the Bears do something notably well on defense that Gonzaga does not -- generate turnovers. Baylor's defense is causing turnovers at the 31st-highest rate among all D1 teams, which might come in handy because Gonzaga, perhaps surprisingly, ranks below average in giving the ball away on offense. The turnover situation on the other side of the court also favors Baylor, as the Bears do not give the ball up very often, ranking well above average in offensive turnover rate, while Gonzaga's defense ranks well below average in generating defensive turnovers.
Baylor also holds a decent advantage when it comes to rebounding. The Bears rank higher in rebounding against Gonzaga on both ends of the court, with the Bears' posting an elite offensive rebounding rate, ranking 11th in that category.
These two teams are otherwise close to even, naturally, but when it comes down to it, I'll take the team that has an edge in rebounding and turnovers. I'll take the Bears.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor +1.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Clemson -3
- NC State -9.5
- Baylor +1.5
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