This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With only three total games on Friday's college hoops slate, here are my predictions for how some will play out.
Dayton 
at VCU 
The Flyers are soaring, entering Friday with a 19-3 record. They are perfect at home, but all three losses have come outside Ohio. And even though they have some of the best scoring numbers in the nation, ranking 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, the offense has come up short in the losses, scoring under 67 points in all three.
The Rams, meanwhile, dropped their first two conference games but have since won seven of their last eight games, including four road wins. VCU will host Friday's game, but the fact that it's won several times in hostile environments during this stretch speaks to the team's resilience. The Rams don't have great offensive efficiency numbers, but they're among the sharpest shooting teams in the nation. They've made 41 percent of shots from behind the arc since the conference season started, the highest percentage in the Atlantic 10, and they've made 79 percent from the charity stripe, also the highest in the league.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, the Rams appear well-equipped to defend against the Flyers' potent offensive attack. Dayton ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and sixth in three-point field goal percentage, but it's met its match as VCU ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed and 10th in three-point percentage allowed. And if that's not enough, VCU is also holding opponents to 45 percent on two-point shots, the 26th-lowest percentage allowed, further fortifying the team's defense. On the other end of the court, VCU will have its hands full going against a defense with the second-best efficiency rating in the conference during league play. Even still, the Rams have great shooting numbers, giving them a fair shot.
Beating Dayton won't be easy, but VCU appears set up to defend its home court. I'm taking the home team in this one.
Additionally, it's worth noting that each team prefers playing extremely slowly and methodically. Since the conference season tipped off, Dayton is playing at the second-slowest tempo in the Atlantic 10, with VCU right on its heels with the third-slowest tempo. And when we combine these stats with the fact that these are two of the top defensive teams in the Atlantic 10, it's clear that points will be a rare commodity on Friday. I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: VCU +1.5 and Under 135.5
San Diego State 
at Nevada 
We don't have to imagine what might happen when these two teams tangle on Friday -- it already happened. These teams met down in San Diego just a few weeks ago on Jan. 17, and the Aztecs cruised to an easy victory, 71-59.
In looking at how these teams stack up against each other, it appears San Diego State will once again have the upper hand for two key reasons.
First, it's a far superior defensive team. The Aztecs have built up a reputation for consistently outstanding defense, and this year's team is no exception. They rank 21st in overall defensive efficiency and rank first in the Mountain West in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point field goal percentage allowed during conference play. Nevada, on the other hand, has played defense at a respectable level, but it's still proven to be vulnerable, like when it got shredded for 98 points against Wyoming.
Second, San Diego State has a massive advantage on the glass. The Aztecs are one of the best rebounding teams in the Mountain West, recording the second-best offensive rebounding percentage against league competition. This is key because Nevada has struggled to secure defensive rebounds, recording the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Mountain West since the conference season tipped off. San Diego State also has an edge when playing in the other direction, logging the third-best defensive rebounding percentage against the sixth-best on offense for Nevada. If these numbers aren't persuasive enough, the box score in their first encounter is worth looking at. The Aztecs crushed them on the glass the last time they played, outrebounding them 44-25, including 20 offensive boards for San Diego State.
All in all, San Diego State has a long and successful track record of gritty yet winning performances. Given the abovementioned matchup advantages, I'm betting they'll collect a hard-earned road win when all is said and done.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State +1.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- VCU +1.5
- Dayton at VCU - Under 135.5
- San Diego State +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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