This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Washington State vs 
UNLV
UNLV is undefeated but the Runnin' Rebels still have a lot to prove. They've played one of the easier schedules in the country, ranking No. 272 in difficulty, with their best win so far this season coming against Dayton. Washington State, on the other hand, has already played three teams that rank higher than Dayton in overall adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, and its best performance arguably came in an overtime loss to Utah.
Comparing these two teams side-by-side, the Cougars have a clear rebounding advantage. Washington State ranks in the top-70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, both significantly higher than UNLV.
UNLV's offense has scored enough points to keep it undefeated up to this point, but the numbers suggest its offense is a major liability. UNLV ranks No. 155 in adjusted offensive efficiency while making just 48 percent of its two-point field goal attempts, well below the D1 average.
Overall, Washington State is the significantly better offensive team and better rebounding team. I'll take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State +2
Arizona vs 
Indiana
As most college hoops fans know by now, both of these teams are loaded. Arizona is one of the top offensive teams in the country, while Indiana is one of the best defensive teams. They are also excellent when playing on the other end of the court, although it's worth noting that Arizona's defense has had a couple of letdowns this year, as they allowed 93 points to Cincinnati and then allowed 81 points to Utah in a 15-point loss on December 1.
That being said, there's one particular category where there's a significant discrepancy -- turnovers. Indiana is one of the most careful teams in the country, ranking No 49 in offensive turnover percentage, while Arizona seldom causes them on defense, ranking No. 342. Indiana has a similar edge on the other side of the court, with the Wildcats turning the ball over more frequently than the average D1 team and the Hoosiers' defense causing turnovers more often than the average team. Considering Indiana holds a clear turnover advantage on both ends of the court, it's a safe bet that the Hoosiers will win the turnover battle. And when everything else is dead even between these two teams, one turnover could be the difference.
Considering this game will likely come down to the final minute, I'll take the team that is less likely to give up a turnover and the team that is more likely to get a stop on defense. Give me the points and the Hoosiers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Indiana +1.5
BYU vs 
Creighton
BYU's defense has been torched several times this year, allowing 75-plus points against the four toughest opponents it's faced so far this season. The Cougars are about to face its toughest opponent yet, especially on offense, so BYU's defense will be significantly tested once again. The Cougars' offense hasn't been much better, but it still managed to put up 75 points against San Diego State and 76 points against USC, two teams that have defenses that are comparable to Creighton's.
Creighton's defense was stout early in the season but has shown more vulnerability lately as it faced tougher competition. In its three most recent games, all against major conference opponents, Arizona, Texas, and Nebraska, Creighton allowed an average of 72 points per game.
Both of these teams prefer playing fast, with BYU really pushing the pace in its games, ranking No. 49 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Considering the shaky defenses and the up-tempo style of play, a high-scoring game seems like the most probable outcome. I'll take the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Washington State +2
- Indiana +1.5
- BYU vs Creighton - Over 145.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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