This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
A few more teams resume Big Ten and Pac-12 conference play in Thursday's college basketball slate. Steve Peralta previews the action and shares his best bets for the day.
Iowa at 
Nebraska
Iowa is coming off one of the more embarrassing losses in recent memory, losing a home game to Eastern Illinois as a massive favorite. It's easy to write off a team after such a debacle, but on the other hand, one might imagine Iowa has never been more determined to get back on the court and prove its last game was a fluke occurrence. Aside from this psychological angle, Iowa has a more tangible reason for optimism -- the return of leading scorer and rebounder Kris Murray and guard Connor McCaffery. Head coach Fran McCaffrey confirmed on Wednesday that both players are expected to get back on the court for Thursday's game against Nebraska. The loss to Eastern Illinois is truly unexplainable, as prior to that game, Iowa defeated a good Iowa State team and took Wisconsin to overtime without Kris Murray available. Even with these losses, Iowa still has the 10th-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country, per KenPom, so this team still knows how to score as well as any other team when they're locked in and focused.
Nebraska, meanwhile, has been struggling ever since defeating Creighton at the start of the month. Since that victory, Nebraska lost three straight games, all against good teams, before snapping the skid at home against Queens just over a week ago. Outside of the game against Creighton, Nebraska has played in six other teams that effectively qualify as Quad 1 games, per KenPom, and the Cornhuskers lost all six of them, all but one by double-digit margins. Nebraska looked impressive against Creighton, but the rest of its resume suggests that might be an outlier performance, especially considering that game occurred during the middle of Creighton's painful six-game losing streak. If Nebraska wants to pull off the upset on Thursday then it's going to need its defense to step up because its offense has not been great. Nebraska has played nine high-major conference opponents this season and it failed to score more than 65 points in seven of them, with the two exceptions being Florida State and Boston College, two teams that don't have high expectations this season.
Overall, Iowa is simply a much better team. The Hawkeyes are now back at full strength and have a chip on their shoulder after how their last game ended. I'll take the team with a substantially better offensive attack.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa -4.5
Utah at 
California
California finally won its first game of the season, defeating UT Arlington, 73-51, just over a week ago. This was also the first time California has scored more than 68 points in a game this season. The Golden Bears will no doubt try and keep the positive energy rolling along, but unfortunately, it now faces its toughest defensive opponent since playing TCU just over a month ago, a game they lost 59-48. Utah represents the second-best defensive opponent for California up to this point (in adjusted efficiency), so the Golden Bears will have their work cut out for them if they want to win their first conference game of the season.
Utah has been much better at scoring than California, which is an incredibly low bar, but it hasn't been quite as sharp in its games away from home. In four games outside of its home state this season, Utah hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of them. California plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, per KenPom, and relies on its defense to keep it within games, so it seems there's a good chance this pattern will continue for another game. KenPom agrees, projecting Utah will score 67 points in Thursday's game.
Considering the defensive strengths of both teams, and California's preference (and need) for shortening the game with as few possessions as possible, this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring game. The over/under number is low, but considering Cal is involved, I still like our chances of hitting the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 128.5
Colorado at 
Stanford
Colorado resumes Pac-12 play with an 0-2 record against conference opponents, but don't let this record deceive you. The Buffaloes demonstrated a high ceiling during non-conference play, defeating Tennessee, 78-66, before dominating Texas A&M, 103-75. Colorado also lost a couple of other games earlier in the season that were head-scratchers, but nonetheless, it's now back in rhythm, winning its last four games, all by eight-plus points. Colorado brings a balanced attack to each game, ranking top-60 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, showing few glaring weaknesses.
In contrast, Stanford's ceiling appears limited if its resume up to date is any indication. It's true that Stanford played one of the most difficult schedules in the country up to this point, but the Cardinal also hasn't shown much fight against any of the more challenging opponents. Stanford has played in seven games that would be Quad 1 or Quad 2 games, per KenPom, and it lost every game, and it lost by double-digits in all but two of them.
Colorado will be on the road for Thursday's matchup, so it's always possible it has a letdown, but ultimately this team appears to have a significantly higher ceiling than its opponent. Colorado has proven it's capable of defeating tournament-caliber teams, while Stanford has yet to register a single quality win. I'll take the points with the better and more balanced team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado +2.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Iowa -4.5
- Utah at California - Under 128.5
- Colorado +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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