This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Scorching hot, coming off a sweep, and riding a six-day profitable streak, here are my selections for Thursday's small slate.
Furman at 
Tulane
Furman enters Thursday with a 5-5 record, but this number of wins is a bit deceiving. Two of them came against sub-D1 opponents, and two of the others came against teams that rank among the worst 60 teams on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. The Paladins have proven to be adept at scoring, although its defense is a major problem, ranking 232nd in efficiency.
Like its opponent on Thursday, Tulane also has several hollow wins under its belt, with its best victory coming against California. That said, Tulane has put up incredible scoring numbers, making over 63 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-highest percentage in the nation. The Green Wave also has the highest free-throw attempt rate in the country while making over 76 percent from the charity stripe, so this team is clearly very physical when attacking the rim.
Overall, these two teams are incredibly similar, both ranking well above average in offensive efficiency while also ranking well below average in defense, although Tulane still has a significant edge in one key area. Turnovers. Furman plays sloppily on offense, ranking 211th in turnover percentage, a terrible trait when playing against Tulane because the Wave has the 42nd-highest defensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams. The advantage is even more pronounced going in the other direction, with Tulane ranking 63rd in lowest offensive turnover percentage and Furman ranking 310th in defense turnovers.
All in all, based on the substantial advantage in the turnover department, I'm taking Tulane in this matchup. It's the better scoring team, the better defensive team, and it has a decisive edge in an area that often makes the difference in winning and covering.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under because the number is colossal. On paper, it makes sense. Both teams play at incredibly fast paces, both are good at scoring, and both are lacking in defense. With that in mind, this number is so big that any sort of scoring draught suddenly puts it on track to stay under. I'm not necessarily expecting a low-scoring game, but something along the lines of 88-80 still nets us a profitable night. I like our odds.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tulane -6.5 and Under 172
East Carolina vs. 
Florida
East Carolina is coming off a loss, a 68-62 defeat against South Carolina, but one could argue it was the team's best performance of the season. South Carolina was easily the Pirates' toughest opponent so far, a team that ranks top-70 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and yet the game was tied with under a minute left. The Pirates' defensive numbers look pretty bad at first glance, although before holding South Carolina to 68 points, they held each of the previous two opponents under 70 points. It might not be obvious, but the defense seems like it's improving.
Florida, meanwhile, has won six of nine games despite playing a tough schedule, the 50th-most difficult according to KenPom. The Gators have strong efficiency numbers on both ends of the court, and while the offense has been their stronger side, their defense is also proving capable. Florida is holding opponents to under 46 percent on two-point shots, the 65th-lowest in the nation, something that will be key on Thursday because East Carolina is not a good long-range shooting team, making under 32 percent from behind the arc. If East Carolina can't score on the inside, then it doesn't seem to have much of a chance.
It's tempting to lay the points with Florida, but East Carolina had a spark in its recent game and the spread is big enough to keep me away. Instead, I'm betting that East Carolina will slow the game down and do its best to turn the game into a defensive battle, at least for a sizable portion of the game before Florida pulls away. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 153
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Tulane -6.5
- Furman at Tulane - Under 172
- East Carolina vs. Florida - Under 153
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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