This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Major conference tournament action tips off on Tuesday, as the lower seeds in the Big 12 and ACC clash for the right to play another day. Here are my predictions for a pair of ACC battles in the later part of the day.
Louisville 
vs. N.C. State
By now, most college hoops fans are well aware of the status of the Louisville basketball program. It has easily been the worst team in the ACC for the past two years, and it's not remotely close. This year's team doubled its win total from last season, going from four to eight, although the underlying numbers are still brutal. Louisville enters Tuesday ranked 197th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, ranking 206th on offense and 206th on defense. It is by far the worst defensive team in the ACC, and second-worst offensively, so it's hard to imagine them making any sort of push in the postseason.
NC State was flying high following a victory over Wake Forest on January 16th, improving its record at the time to 13-4. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, it's been a sharp downward slide ever since. NC State has lost 10 of its last 14 games dating back to mid-January, including its last four straight. To be fair, the Wolfpack has faced three of the top four teams in the conference during its recent skid, although even still, it allowed at least 79 points in its last four consecutive games, an area that needs to improve if it wants to make a run in the ACC tournament.
In comparing these two teams, NC State's offense clearly has the biggest advantage, playing against the weakest defense in the conference. The Wolfpack are a proficient group, ranking eighth in the ACC in offensive efficiency since league play started, so they should find points on a good number of possessions on Tuesday. The Cardinals, aside from being last in the conference defensive efficiency, are also last in effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point field goal percentage allowed, and they're second-worst in two-point field goal percentage allowed. At the other end of the court, Louisville's offense isn't great, but in the few games it's won this season, it's been solely because of its scoring output. The Cardinals previously scored 79 points against Virginia Tech, 101 points against Florida State, and 80 points at Miami, accounting for all three of their conference wins.
When these two teams last faced each other back on Jan. 13, NC State won at Louisville, 89-83, in a game that saw Louisville rally to cut the deficit to three points in the final 20 seconds before NC State made free throws to end the game. The line on Tuesday is somewhat large, as it should be, although I'm not ready to lay that many points with a team that has won just two total games in the past month. Considering the defenses involved, and the fast-paced style of each team, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 148.5
Miami 
vs. Boston College
It's hard to find a colder team than Miami. The Hurricanes enter Tuesday on a nine-game losing streak and have lost by at least four points in all but one of the games during this stretch. Perhaps more importantly, Miami lost to Boston College twice during this streak, 85-77 on the road and 67-57 at home, giving the Hurricanes a major hurdle before it can advance in the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes' downfall was hard to predict following its performance in last year's Big Dance, but the veritable writing appeared on the wall after they lost to Louisville by nine points at home back in early January.
Boston College, meanwhile, closed the regular season with a two-game sweep on a road trip, winning at Miami and then at Louisville before arriving in the Nation's capital for the conference tournament. The Eagles didn't pull off any major upsets in the past couple of months, although they did travel to Brooklyn and defeat St. John's, a potential NCAA tournament team, back in mid-December. They also didn't suffer any conference losses to teams that are beneath them in the standings, giving them a high floor, if nothing else.
This matchup is seemingly dead even at first glance, although a closer look reveals one team appears to have an edge over the other. Offensively, Miami hasn't been great throughout the conference season, recording the fourth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the ACC. This isn't great, although neither is Boston College's defense, also ranking fourth-worst in the league in efficiency during conference play. That said, the Eagles' defense outranks the 'Canes' offense in many other important categories, such as turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate, giving Boston College's defense a slight edge over Miami's offense.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are slightly better offensively, ranking 10th in the ACC in efficiency. Miami's defense appears to be at an equal level, recording an efficiency rating that ranks ninth in the league, although it has two traits we must highlight. Miami finished last in the conference in three-pointer attempt rate allowed and assist rate allowed, which should lead to plenty of open looks for Boston College plenty on Tuesday. The Eagles are making 37 percent of shots from behind the arc during conference play, the fourth-highest percentage in the ACC, so they are likely to take advantage of a soft perimeter defense. This is exactly what happened in the first matchup between these two teams, as Boston College made 15-of-30 from three-point range, and then made 10-29 in the rematch just under a week ago.
Both teams prefer a fast-paced game, with Miami ranking 51st in offensive tempo and Boston College ranking 123rd in the same category, so I'm betting we'll see a back-and-forth game with each team trading baskets before the Eagles make a move in the second half. For all these reasons, I'm taking Boston College and the over in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boston College +2 and Over 147
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Louisville vs. NC State - Over 148.5
- Boston College +2
- Miami vs. Boston College - Over 147
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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