This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a loaded college hoops slate on tap for Tuesday, headlined by the Champions Classic from Chicago. Coming off a scorching hot opening week, going 9-3 with his picks, Steve Peralta returns to preview all the hoops action taking place at the United Center.
Duke vs. 
Michigan State
This matchup offers something that's hard to come by this time of year -- confidence. Both teams are returning four starters from last year's tournament teams, giving us a clear knowledge of who's playing and the role of each player involved. For additional perspective, it's worth noting that Duke has the 16th-highest percentage of returning minutes from last season, while Michigan State ranks next at 17th on the list among all D1 teams.
Despite the high expectations and elite roster, Duke dropped its previous game, 78-73, when hosting Arizona last Friday. A home loss is never a pleasant outcome, but there's no shame in losing a close game to a fully reloaded Arizona team. And the fact that the Blue Devils were competitive throughout the entire game, I would argue, only confirms that they are capable of running with the best teams in the country.
Michigan State, on the other hand, lost its home opener to James Madison, a team that's not typically known for being a basketball powerhouse. In fairness to the Dukes, James Madison has climbed all the way up to No. 85 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so perhaps the Spartans' loss might make more sense later in the year. In any event, the loss to James Madison highlighted a major weakness for Michigan State -- a lack of long-range shooting. The Spartans were 1-of-20 from behind the arc in the season opener and followed that up with a 1-of-11 performance against Southern Indiana. Their shooting percentage won't stay this low, obviously; but then again, Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins are the only two players who had significant success from behind the arc last season. If either player again struggles, or if no one else steps up, this game might get out of hand.
The other part of this matchup that we can't overlook is the intense defensive nature of both teams. Michigan State ranks near the top in defensive efficiency at No. 13, with Duke not far behind at No. 20. That said, Duke's defense finished at No. 16 last season, making it likely that their current standing will improve. The Spartans have the length to make it a tough night for the Blue Devils, so buckets won't come easy for either side in this one.
Looking at the bottom line, even though Michigan State returns most of its team from last year, Duke still has an edge in talent. It's possible that Michigan State will finally start hitting three-pointers and pull the upset, but ultimately I'm betting that Duke will pull away in the second half and win an ugly one. I'm on Duke and the under in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -4 and Under 142
Kansas vs. 
Kentucky
This matchup is the epitome of college basketball. Two of the bluest blue blood programs in history once again begin the season with extremely high aspirations. On paper, these are two top-15 teams, however, a closer look reveals one team might have a noticeable edge over the other.
Kansas is returning three starters from last year's squad, one that finished ninth in KenPom's overall efficiency standings. By now, most college hoops fans are well aware that superstar Hunter Dickinson joined the Jayhawks, giving a great roster an even bigger advantage over the competition. Suffice to say, it's obvious why Kansas is currently ranked third in the country in overall efficiency per KenPom. The Jayhawks have as much talent as any team, and they also have experience to boot. Kansas ranks 31st in experience among all D1 teams, something that comes in handy early in the season when other teams are enduring freshmen growing pains.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is following its standard operating procedure for building out its roster. That is, recruit as many five-stars as possible and see what happens. This recipe worked well for the first decade or so of Calipari's tenure at Kentucky, but the Wildcats haven't advanced past the second round of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so this team hasn't been quite as elite in recent years. Even still, this year's squad has three of the best freshmen in the country in its starting lineup, and combined with fifth-year senior Antonio Reeves, we certainly don't want to underestimate the potential of this particular group.
When looking at how these two teams match up against each other, a major question emerges -- how will Kentucky defend Hunter Dickinson?
According to the folks at Oddsshark.com, Dickinson entered the year with the second-best odds to win the 2023-24 Wooden Award. Only reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey had higher betting odds to win the award. Dickinson, listed at 7-2, is significantly taller than any of Kentucky's players, with Tre Mitchell (6-9) or Justin Edwards (6-8) being the most likely candidates to draw that defensive assignment. Additionally, Kentucky hasn't been spectacular on defense in recent years, finishing outside the top 30 in defensive efficiency since 2019. And with such a young team, it's hard to expect them to play lockdown defense against one of the best teams in the country in just the third game of the season.
On the other end of the court, Kentucky also has a question mark when it comes to shooting. Kentucky has made just 32.7 percent of its shots from behind the arc this season, a number that almost certainly needs to be higher if it wants to pull the upset against Kansas.
All in all, while both of these teams have the potential to be great, one team has a clear edge. Kansas simply has more experience, more height, and, in my opinion, better coaching. Based on projected talent, the Wildcats have a legitimate chance of developing into one of the best teams in the country, except it's all unproven at this point in the season. Kentucky played seven players in their previous game and five of them were true freshmen. This is a non-issue when playing North Carolina Central and Manhattan, but the lack of experience will almost certainly show up at some point in Tuesday's game. And for what it's worth, Kansas played at Kentucky last year and won 77-68. This is almost a completely different Kentucky team, but I'm betting the outcome will be the same. I'm laying the points with Kansas in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas -6
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Duke -4
- Duke vs. Michigan State - Under 142
- Kansas -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
Kentucky officially launched sports betting on September 28. College hoops fans in the Bluegrass State can stay up to date on the latest Kentucky sports betting promos at all Kentucky sportsbooks here at RotoWire. The BetMGM Kentucky bonus code gets new customers a generous welcome offer.
