This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
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Several more teams tip off their college hoops season Tuesday night, and Steve Peralta returns to break down the marquee matchup. He also analyzes another tight game down in Denton, Texas. Here are his best bets for the day:
Northern Iowa at 
North Texas
Northern Iowa finished last season at 14-18, and it wasn't good on either end of the court, ranking in the bottom half of the country in offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Panthers are returning all their 2022-23 starters (excluding James Betz) with four new faces added into the mix, including three true freshmen and one transfer portal addition in the form of center Jacob Hutson. KenPom is projecting a better outcome for this group, but then again, players don't always develop as expected. Northern Iowa was decidedly below average among its Missouri Valley Conference peers last season, so the Panthers still have a lot to prove.
The host team, in contrast, has steadily improved its status in recent years while also solidifying its identity as an elite lockdown defensive team.
North Texas finished last season with a 31-7 overall record, a 16-4 record in the American Athletic Conference, and capped it off by winning the National Invitation Tournament. This resulted in former head coach Grant McCasland leaving to join Texas Tech, making Tuesday's game the debut for Ross Hodge, who was elevated to head coach after six seasons as the associate coach under McCasland.
Hodge has led the defense over the years, one that has consistently ranked among the nation's best. In both 2021-22 and 2022-23, The Mean Green had the country's No. 1 scoring defense holding opponents to 55.7 and 55.8 points per game, respectively. Looking ahead to the new season, UNT returns three starters while adding seven newcomers, six of which came from the transfer portal.
Given this roster turnover, I'm not betting on North Texas to score much in the first game of the season. It might still win thanks to its recent tradition of playing lockdown defense, but the game might also come down to the final minute. The over/under number is low, naturally, but I'm betting the Mean Green defense will stifle Northern Iowa and make them work for every bucket. The current number for North Texas (-4.5) is a bit high for my liking, so I'm going with the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 129.5
Auburn vs. 
Baylor
Off the top, it's important to note, that while most neutral site games take place not far from a campus or urban center, this matchup will go down at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. For what it's worth, Baylor made this same trip last year and defeated Gonzaga, 64-63, on December 2, 2022.
The Bears have several new faces this year, but if KenPom's preseason rankings are accurate, they should have better results than last season. It's true that Baylor lost four of its five starters from a year ago, but the Bears have also added several talented players to replenish their roster, such as RayJ Dennis, the reigning MAC player of the year. The Bears also added Ja'Kobe Walter (a five-star freshman), Miro Little (a four-star freshman), Yves Missi (a four-star freshman) and Jayden Nunn (from VCU). When factoring in other returning players like Jalen Bridges and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, it's easy to see why the Bears once again have high expectations. Baylor's only flaw last year was its defense, which ranked No. 107 in adjusted efficiency. One might doubt how much that will improve, but it's worth noting that last season was the outlier among recent Scott Drew-led teams. Dating back to 2020, Baylor had finished in the top 25 of the country in adjusted defensive efficiency in three consecutive seasons.
Auburn, meanwhile, was comparatively more balanced last season, ranking top 50 in efficiency on both ends of the court. KenPom is projecting a similar and improved team in 2024, currently sitting in the top 20 in offense and defense with its preseason efficiency ratings. Auburn may have lost talented players like Wendell Green, Jr., Allen Flanigan, and Zep Jasper, but the Tigers have a shot at being better due to the additions of Aden Holloway (a five-star freshman), Denver Jones (from FIU) and Chaney Johnson (from Alabama-Huntsville), among others. The Tigers also have Jaylin Williams, K.D. Johnson and Johni Broome returning to the fold, rounding out a talented and deep team. When looking at past negative traits that might carry over, one concern is the Tigers ranked 323rd in defensive rebounding last season. And with Williams and Broome returning, that means the Bears will likely see many put-back opportunities in Tuesday's game.
After weighing all the facts and variables, I'm putting my money on Baylor to survive a high-scoring thriller. The Bears reached the pinnacle of the sport only a few years ago, and they have yet to truly drop off. Auburn has had highlights in recent years, but Baylor has ultimately flashed a higher ceiling, finishing top-five in the nation in overall efficiency in three of the last four seasons (per KenPom). Considering all the extra uncertainty that comes with opening night, I'm taking the Bears and the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor -1.5 and Over 143
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Northern Iowa at North Texas - Under 129.5
- Baylor -1.5
- Auburn vs. Baylor - Over 143
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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