This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Our all-day hoops binge is back for its weekly installment. And we've got no NFL or NBA distractions. Three slates, 33 games, 330 starters. Let's sort through 'em!
Main Slate
We've got a doozy to open things Saturday with the second-largest prize pool I can remember this season with $5,000 for first and $20,000 overall and games tipping between 12 and 3:00 p.m. EST. Only two players are valued north of $9,000, so we should be able to build from balance.
Six matchups come with totals projected to hit at least 150 points, three sit in the 140s, and the other are no higher than 130. We'll see if we end up completely ignoring those lower-scoring ones though it seems likely given the strong concentration of games where points will be more readily available.
Top Players
Ryan Kalkbrenner, F, Creighton ($8,700)
The last time Creighton faced Butler, we were treated to a 99-98 final. While we don't have the same expected total here, there is a narrow 2.5-point spread so I want to attack the upper-tier players for floor and ceiling. Teammate Baylor Scheierman is in amazing form and is the play, if you can afford him. But for $700 less, you can get a forward-eligible Kalkbrenner that's got as safe of a floor as you can find having posted at least 33.0 DKP in every game this calendar year (12 in total) while averaging 18.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. The Bulldogs offer minimal size at best, so there's no reason to believe Kalkbrenner can't at least match the 37.75 DKP he posted in the previous matchup, which would be more than a 4x return.
Tolu Smith, F, Mississippi State ($7,600)
Smith isn't always the most trustworthy DFS play, but the value point is appealing and it's an upside shot to pair with Kalkbrenner to form a nice frontcourt build as we can find guard options at lower salaries. Arkansas remains a mess, which has the Bulldogs expected to score 80 points. They're also woefully undersized without Trevon Brazile, which should allow Smith to feast. He's posted consecutive double-doubles and lists a nice 29.2 percent usage rate over his last three.
Middle Tier
Tyrece Radford, G, Texas A&M ($6,700)
If you want to differentiate, I'd probably consider Wade Taylor or Mark Sears from the Tide at the top-tier. I expect Radford to be popular, but that doesn't make him the wrong play as the salary remains favorable. He's been a high-volume player across his last four by compiling a 30.2 percent usage rate and averaging 23.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists while taking 14.5 shots. The lack of peripherals does create a potentially low floor, though the game script should counteract that with a 157.5 point total.
Justin Hill, G, Georgia ($5,200)
To be clear, there are many players I like in the $6,000 tier, but I'm trying to find some additional paydown choices to allow for lineup flexibility. I'm struggling to find the right angle to get in on this game against Florida, though we know we want a piece. The two sides played to a 102-98 final last time out, and we have a 153.5-point total here. Hill hasn't shown much upside, but not much is required at this valuation. He's started two consecutive outings while earning a 26.0 percent usage and averaging 11.0 points, 3.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds. Pair that with logging 36 minutes against the Gators during their previous meeting and earning 30.5 DKP, and there's a lot to like in Hill at a minimal salary.
Bargain Options
Max Klesmit, G, Wisconsin ($4,800)
I want part of the Badgers Saturday thanks to Iowa's pace that has Wisconsin with a 79-point implied total after posting 83 against them in an earlier meeting. And I like Steven Crowl a lot for his salary point, though he simply didn't fit into the column parameters as it came together. Klesmit is simply the cheapest starting option to snag a share of as he's been in double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his last 11, which includes two 30-plus fantasy performances. The floor seems to be 2x, and there's a rare ceiling that can manifest thanks to the Hawkeyes' tempo. Klesmit can key on Iowa's 243rd-ranked 3-point defense and also facilitate.
Tyler Nickel, F, Virginia Tech ($4,500)
We'll role with a revenge narrative here as Nickel transfered from UNC to VT last offseason and is making his first appearance in Chapel Hill with his new club. Since beating Duke, UNC has allowed 25 made 3-pointers from their last three games. And that should fit Nickel, who ranks third on the team in long range attempts at 4.4 per game. It's a risk we may not need to take, as there are enough high-end cheaper options where you don't really need to live in the sub-5k tier. Nickel doesn't start and is only a scorer, yet he's been in double-digit fantasy points in three straight and 11 of his last 12, so perhaps it's safer than I originally thought. The Hokies shouldn't have any problem sailing over 70 points here.
Afternoon Slate
We tip here between 3:30 and 6:30 p.m. EST, with a $2,000 first-place prize available and $6,000 total in DraftKings' big tournament. We again only have two players valued at $9,000 or greater, so balance should be available. But unlike the main contest, I didn't personally find this one with games as appealing or as easy to pull together with targets.
Of the 12 matchups, half list totals of 147 points or greater, highlighted by the likely shootout between Kentucky and Auburn. That makes Johni Broome the clear and obvious target. Our optimizer projects him for 48.6 DKP, so he's a no-brainer, right? Even more so with Kentucky's post depth being challenged with Tre Mitchell hurt again. It's a clear smash spot, though Broome has been under 30 DKP in his last two and under a 4x return that number from half of his last six. I'm still all over him as he's not cost-prohibitive, yet it's not a simple must-play-and-build-around. So let's find pieces to fit around Broome while simultaneously fading him.
Top Players
Julian Reese, F, Maryland ($8,300)
And this is how we can potentially combat Broome. I don't know what more Reese has to do to see his salary rise, but far be it for me to complain. He was an anchor for me midweek and delivered 40.25 DKP. Reese dominated Illinois in an earlier matchup to the tune of 20 points and 11 rebounds with nine efforts of 30-plus DKP across 12 conference competitions. The game total here isn't elite, so there's a touch more risk than we'd like. But Reese makes up for that on the glass, and the potential scoring limitations should only result in low roster percentages.
Blake Hinson, F, Pittsburgh ($7,400)
Hinson has scored at least 16 in five straight and six of seven while averaging 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds and playing a massive 36.6 minutes while taking 12.3 shots. It's a soft matchup for him with Louisville at the nation's 63rd-fastest tempo per KenPom while also ranking 215th in defensive efficiency. Pittsburgh scored 83 points in an earlier meeting with the Cardinals and have an implied total of nearly 80 points. Hinson doesn't likely offer and upside of 40 DKP, though the volume and minutes should lead to around 30.
Middle Tier
Tyrin Lawrence, G, Vanderbilt ($6,400)
This may be a tough sell given we assume Vandy is getting blown out here, but it's an upside GPP shot that many won't take as a result. Lawrence doesn't leave the court as he averages nearly 32 minutes with 14.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals in conference play. He's a streaky shooter who could fall victim to the road environment and Tennessee's sixth-ranked defensive efficiency, but he also posted a nice 39.5 DKP against the Volunteers earlier in the year. Lawrence is valued at a near roster-average spot and has the potential to return more than that strictly on volume. If you're looking for a safer play, consider Syracuse's J.J. Starling or South Carolina's Ta'Lon Cooper.
Kyshawn George, G, Miami ($5,600)
A simple spot to take advantage of a salary inaccuracy. George has been valued as high as $6,500 and is coming off of a 29.75 DKP showing after missing one game due to injury. In his last six when available, George has posted at least 28.75 DKP four times. Miami comes with a nice 76.5 point implied total with Georgia Tech ranking 171st in defensive efficiency. Miami has a six-man rotation, assuring George of 30-plus minutes with enough production.
Bargain Options
Justin Edwards, G, Kentucky ($4,900)
Perhaps this is more of a gut feel play than anything backed by metrics, and why on Earth is Edwards listed as a guard? While not elite, he's somewhat quietly posted double-digit fantasy points from each of his last four games while showing a 25.5 DKP ceiling. Kentucky's offense remains guard-dominated, but Edwards is going to have to do more if Tre Mitchell is out. We know the recruiting pedigree and the disappointing season-long results, but this gives us a cheap buy in the matchup we know we want shares of.
C.J. Walker, F, Central Florida ($4,900)
The bottom-tier of forwards on this slate looks awful, so we have to choose between stable minutes in lower-scoring games or take a shot on a bench player in a higher-scoring contest going off. I'm obviously siding with the former. Walker has made two appearances since missing three and has averaged 8.5 points and 5.5 rebounds across 25.0 minutes. Simply put, that's good enough for the salary. Bank on a meager 2x return - maybe slightly more - but use the savings to find another stud to build around.
Evening Slate
Nine games for our nightcap, tipping between 7:30 and 11:30 p.m. EST. It's a somewhat surprisingly larger total prize pool with DraftKings offering $7,000 for their main tournament and another $2,000 going to the winner.
It's a broken record for Saturday's contests as we again have only two players valued $9,000 and above. Just a third of the matchups list a point total of at least 150, though we have no real low projection as Oregon-Oregon State is still sitting near 140 and we should be able to build from all of the offerings.
Top Players
Devin Carter, G, Providence ($9,100)
This is the one spot throughout Saturday where I'll advocate for taking a top-value stud and hope you can find value elsewhere to make it work. Carter has only gone under 40 DKP six times from his last 14 outings with none under 30 and only two less than 34.75. That's about as safe as it comes. He faces a DePaul team ranked 295th in defensive efficiency and one against whom he posted a 25-7-4-3 line this year that resulted in 46.75 fantasy points.
PJ Hall, F, Clemson ($8,600)
It's going to be difficult to fit both Carter and Hall into lineups, but I don't want this to be a pick-your-poison type thing as both look elite Saturday. For Hall, the form is inconsistent, though the matchup looks tremendous. I have no idea how the Wolfpack are going to match up here. They're a guard-dominant team that seemingly will use D.J. Burns to combat Ian Schieffelin or Hall on the interior, yet he only logs 20-ish minutes and can't guard both. Ben Middlebrooks and Mohamed Diarra offer length, but I'm struggling to find a path for any of these three to cause problems for Hall.
Middle Tier
Jaden Akins, G, Michigan State ($6,700)
I want to go back to the Tyson Walker well after he let me down mid-week, but Akins looks like he could provide a touch more value. Michigan is woeful defensively, ranking 180th in efficiency, and the Spartans scored 81 in a prior meeting. Over his last five games, Akins is averaging 15.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.6 steals across 32.4 minutes, though a somewhat modest 21.1 percent usage rate. It should all play up in this matchup, one where Akins earned 40.75 DKP previously.
Dug McDaniel, G, Michigan ($5,900)
We've got a significant salary reduction here as McDaniel has been valued as high as $8,300 this season, which speaks to his potential. It's far from a targetable matchup with the Spartans ranking 21st in defensive efficiency, though the risk is mitigated at this decreased salary. The spread is close enough to think McDaniel and his 25.4 percent usage rate of late can far exceed this value.
Bargain Options
Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona ($4,500)
Trusting bench pieces is never easy, but there are some signs Bradley can be useful here. While Arizona is largely a five-man rotation, he's the default sixth who's averaging 20.8 minutes across his last five outings leading to four-straight double-digit fantasy outings. Arizona is also favored by 18 points. If that plays out, it stands to reason the Wildcats will be able to pull back over the final 10 minutes to give Bradley more opportunity - and he also shouldn't be shut out in the first 30. Ole Miss' Brandon Murray was slated to be the next name suggested in this column, but he's only guard-eligible on DK. Washington's Koren Johnson is going to be the trendy paydown guard.
Jamarion Sharp, F, Mississippi ($4,200)
Sharp has been valued as high as $5,800, so we're getting a solid discount in his third game back from injury. To be fair, he doesn't boast the upside of a player at $6,000, so set expectations low. Sharp has a soft matchup with Missouri losing 11 straight in conference while sitting 169th in defensive efficiency, 348th in offensive rebound percentage allowed and 124th in their own shots being blocked. Sharp can post a six-point, four-rebound, two-block line and return way more than we need at this salary. And he could get more minutes than expected if the game goes sideways for the Tigers.
