This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DraftKings has a relatively small slate of games Thursday starting with two Big Ten tilts that tip at 6:30 p.m. EST and 7 p.m. EST. This is followed by a healthy serving of West Coast games, the final three of which have tipoffs at 11 pm and make up the evening late of DraftKings' slate. Only one of the games in the (late) night slate has a total over 140 points, and it projects to be a rather lopsided affair between Arizona and Oregon State. However, there are still three other games that are expected to be both high-scoring and narrow outings, including two with totals above 150!
Top Tier
Hunter Dickinson, F, Michigan ($8,900)
The first and likely top game we want to target is this Michigan-Iowa matchup that has a total of 154.5 points. Therefore, it's fair to go after a high-priced player in this contest. The best option here would be Dickinson, who is the fourth-highest-priced player in the entire slate. Both teams are in the top-105 of the nation for adjusted tempo, but Iowa is worse defensively with an adjusted efficiency that ranks No. 110, per KenPom. Dickinson also has a higher usage rate over the last five games (28.8) than his Hawkeyes counterpart in Kris Murray (24.2), the latter of whom is priced $900 higher. Dickinson averaged 17.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and three blocks in two games against Iowa last season, so there's reason to think he could put up a similar stat line against the Hawkeyes again.
Tristan da Silva, F, Colorado ($7,800)
Da Silva has taken a jump in his third season with the Buffaloes, averaging career highs in points (15.1) and rebounds (5.1). The 6-foot-9 forward has averaged 31.0 minutes over the last five games, putting him neck and neck with team-leading scorer K.J. Simpson (31.1). Da Silva's 25.4 percent usage rate makes him the only other Colorado starter with a usage rate above 20 during this span. USC is a solid all-around defensive team, but the Trojans are lacking on the boards with the No. 149-ranked defensive rebound percentage allowed (70.1) and the No. 316-ranked offensive rebound percentage (33.0), per KenPom. This matchup also crosses the thresholds we're looking for with a total of 141.5 and a spread of 2.5. Getting the better overall rebounder in da Silva for $300 cheaper than Simpson gives him the edge in this final decision.
Middle Tier
Julian Strawther, G, Gonzaga ($7,400)
This is the second-best matchup to target during Thursday's slate with an expected total of 151.0 and a 6.5-point spread leaning toward the Zags. Star Gonzaga big man Drew Timme ($10,400) is likely a bit overpriced after averaging 42.5 DKP over the last five games. So, it's worth pivoting to the Zags' next-best player in Julian Strawther, who is second behind Timme in just above every statistic over this span and is $3000 cheaper. Strawther is averaging 13.9 points and 7.3 rebounds while also leading this starting rotation in three-point percentage (43.0) and three-point attempts per game (4.6) for the season. This shapes up well against a BYU team that ranks No. 150 in three-point percentage allowed (33.1).
Fousseyni Traore, F, BYU ($6,600)
This matchup looks even stronger when you consider that Gonzaga and BYU rank 38th and 53rd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. That makes it worth finding another high-usage player to ride this fast-moving wave. Traore leads the Cougars in usage rate over the last five games (28.4) while boasting a moderate salary. The 6-foot-6 sophomore will be at a size disadvantage against the Zags' taller frontcourt, and he did produce middling results across two outings against Gonzaga last season, scoring 14 combined points while taking seven field-goal attempts in each contest. But, Traore's scoring average has jumped from 9.5 points last season to 12.8 points this season thanks to his increased field-goal attempts per game, going from 6.5 to 7.9. He also leads BYU with 7.9 rebounds per game. That's a solid floor to bank on in a game that should have plenty of opportunities to clean up the glass.
Value Tier
Jermaine Couisnard, G, Oregon ($5,800)
Cousinard missed Oregon's first 14 games while recovering from a knee surgery undergone in November. The South Carolina transfer was seen as a significant commitment for Oregon after he averaged 16.5 points while starting the final eight games of the 2021-22 season. Since returning for the past two games, Cousinard ranks sixth on the Ducks in minutes (24.5) and fourth in usage rate (22.2). Cousinard also put up nine and 10 points to go along with four rebounds in each of these two games. This isn't the most attractive matchup with a predicted total of 135.5 and below-average tempo rates for both teams, but the tight, four-point spread could lead Cousinard to see even more critical usage and playing time.
Payton Sandfort, G, Iowa ($5,600)
Sandfort is my favorite value of any player in Thursday's slate. The 6-foot-7 sophomore has played at least 22 minutes off the bench in five of the last seven games due to missing players in Iowa's starting rotation. As a result, he's scored in double digits in all but one of these contests while also averaging 4.9 boards. Sandfort hasn't cracked the starting five just once over the Hawkeyes' last five games, but he actually leads the team in usage rate (26.5) during this span. Starting forward Patrick McCaffery is still taking an indefinite leave of absence due to personal mental health reasons, so expect Sandfort to continue delivering returns above his lower-tier expectations.
